Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

The present historical moment may seem a particularly inopportune time to review Bowling Alone, Robert Putnam's latest exploration of civic decline in America. After all, the outpouring of volunteerism, solidarity, patriotism, and self-sacrifice displayed by Americans in the wake of the September 11 terrorist attacks appears to fly in the face of Putnam's central argument: that \"social capital\" -defined as \"social networks and the norms of reciprocity and trustworthiness that arise from them\" (p. 19)'has declined to dangerously low levels in America over the last three decades. However, Putnam is not fazed in the least by the recent effusion of solidarity. Quite the contrary, he sees in it the potential to \"reverse what has been a 30to 40-year steady decline in most measures of connectedness or community.\"' As an example of how the current \"war on terrorism\" could generate a durable civic renewal, Putnam points to the burst in civic practices that occurred during and after World War II, which he says \"permanently marked\" the generation that lived through it and had a \"terrific effect on American public life over the last half-century.\" 3 If Americans can follow this example and channel their current civic

Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community

The term “Linked Data” refers to a set of best practices for publishing and connecting structured data on the Web. These best practices have been adopted by an increasing number of data providers over the last three years, leading to the creation of a global data space containing billions of assertions— the Web of Data. In this article, the authors present the concept and technical principles of Linked Data, and situate these within the broader context of related technological developments. They describe progress to date in publishing Linked Data on the Web, review applications that have been developed to exploit the Web of Data, and map out a research agenda for the Linked Data community as it moves forward.

/pdf/linked-data-the-story-so-far-2a9zvmaysa.pdf

Linked Data - the story so far

We examine the trade-offs associated with using Amazon.com’s Mechanical Turk (MTurk) interface for subject recruitment. We first describe MTurk and its promise as a vehicle for performing low-cost and easy-to-field experiments. We then assess the internal and external validity of experiments performed using MTurk, employing a framework that can be used to evaluate other subject pools. We first investigate the characteristics of samples drawn from the MTurk population. We show that respondents recruited in this manner are often more representative of the U.S. population than in-person convenience samples—the modal sample in published experimental political science—but less representative than subjects in Internet-based panels or national probability samples. Finally, we replicate important published experimental work using MTurk samples.

/pdf/evaluating-online-labor-markets-for-experimental-research-2g48xhj8u4.pdf

Evaluating Online Labor Markets for Experimental Research: Amazon.com's Mechanical Turk

The inherent nature of social media content poses serious challenges to practical applications of sentiment analysis. We present VADER, a simple rule-based model for general sentiment analysis, and compare its effectiveness to eleven typical state-of-practice benchmarks including LIWC, ANEW, the General Inquirer, SentiWordNet, and machine learning oriented techniques relying on Naive Bayes, Maximum Entropy, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, we first construct and empirically validate a gold-standard list of lexical features (along with their associated sentiment intensity measures) which are specifically attuned to sentiment in microblog-like contexts. We then combine these lexical features with consideration for five general rules that embody grammatical and syntactical conventions for expressing and emphasizing sentiment intensity. Interestingly, using our parsimonious rule-based model to assess the sentiment of tweets, we find that VADER outperforms individual human raters (F1 Classification Accuracy = 0.96 and 0.84, respectively), and generalizes more favorably across contexts than any of our benchmarks.

/pdf/vader-a-parsimonious-rule-based-model-for-sentiment-analysis-47uwj744t2.pdf

VADER: A Parsimonious Rule-based Model for Sentiment Analysis of Social Media Text

User studies are important for many aspects of the design process and involve techniques ranging from informal surveys to rigorous laboratory studies. However, the costs involved in engaging users often requires practitioners to trade off between sample size, time requirements, and monetary costs. Micro-task markets, such as Amazon's Mechanical Turk, offer a potential paradigm for engaging a large number of users for low time and monetary costs. Here we investigate the utility of a micro-task market for collecting user measurements, and discuss design considerations for developing remote micro user evaluation tasks. Although micro-task markets have great potential for rapidly collecting user measurements at low costs, we found that special care is needed in formulating tasks in order to harness the capabilities of the approach.

/pdf/crowdsourcing-user-studies-with-mechanical-turk-59fc7iag7s.pdf

Crowdsourcing user studies with Mechanical Turk

We explore how generating a chain of thought -- a series of intermediate reasoning steps -- significantly improves the ability of large language models to perform complex reasoning. In particular, we show how such reasoning abilities emerge naturally in sufficiently large language models via a simple method called chain of thought prompting, where a few chain of thought demonstrations are provided as exemplars in prompting. Experiments on three large language models show that chain of thought prompting improves performance on a range of arithmetic, commonsense, and symbolic reasoning tasks. The empirical gains can be striking. For instance, prompting a 540B-parameter language model with just eight chain of thought exemplars achieves state of the art accuracy on the GSM8K benchmark of math word problems, surpassing even finetuned GPT-3 with a verifier.

Chain of Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models

Retweeting is the key mechanism for information diffusion in Twitter. It emerged as a simple yet powerful way of disseminating information in the Twitter social network. Even though a lot of information is shared in Twitter, little is known yet about how and why certain information spreads more widely than others. In this paper, we examine a number of features that might affect retweetability of tweets. We gathered content and contextual features from 74M tweets and used this data set to identify factors that are significantly associated with retweet rate. We also built a predictive retweet model. We found that, amongst content features, URLs and hashtags have strong relationships with retweetability. Amongst contextual features, the number of followers and followees as well as the age of the account seem to affect retweetability, while, interestingly, the number of past tweets does not predict retweetability of a user's tweet. We believe that this research would inform the design of sensemaking and analytics tools for social media streams.

/pdf/want-to-be-retweeted-large-scale-analytics-on-factors-3d0ov0dmc7.pdf

Want to be Retweeted? Large Scale Analytics on Factors Impacting Retweet in Twitter Network

Indexes are models: a \btree-Index can be seen as a model to map a key to the position of a record within a sorted array, a Hash-Index as a model to map a key to a position of a record within an unsorted array, and a BitMap-Index as a model to indicate if a data record exists or not. In this exploratory research paper, we start from this premise and posit that all existing index structures can be replaced with other types of models, including deep-learning models, which we term \em learned indexes. We theoretically analyze under which conditions learned indexes outperform traditional index structures and describe the main challenges in designing learned index structures. Our initial results show that our learned indexes can have significant advantages over traditional indexes. More importantly, we believe that the idea of replacing core components of a data management system through learned models has far reaching implications for future systems designs and that this work provides just a glimpse of what might be possible.

https://dl.acm.org/doi/pdf/10.1145/3183713.3196909

The Case for Learned Index Structures

Wikipedia, a wiki-based encyclopedia, has become one of the most successful experiments in collaborative knowledge building on the Internet. As Wikipedia continues to grow, the potential for conflict and the need for coordination increase as well. This article examines the growth of such non-direct work and describes the development of tools to characterize conflict and coordination costs in Wikipedia. The results may inform the design of new collaborative knowledge systems.

/pdf/he-says-she-says-conflict-and-coordination-in-wikipedia-1msm15u82s.pdf

Ed H. Chi

Papers

Crowdsourcing user studies with Mechanical Turk

Chain of Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models

Want to be Retweeted? Large Scale Analytics on Factors Impacting Retweet in Twitter Network

The Case for Learned Index Structures

He says, she says: conflict and coordination in Wikipedia