This paper presents a global model linking individual country vector error-correcting models in which the domestic variables are related to the country-specific variables as an approximate solution to a global common factor model. This global VAR is estimated for 26 countries, the euro area being treated as a single economy. This paper proposes two important extensions of previous research (see Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner, 2004). First, it provides a theoretical framework where the GVAR is derived as an approximation to a global unobserved common factor model. Also using average pair-wise cross-section error correlations, the GVAR approach is shown to be quite effective in dealing with the common factor interdependencies and international comovements of business cycles. Second, in addition to generalised impulse response functions, we propose an identification scheme to derive structural impulse responses. We focus on identification of shocks to the US economy, particularly the monetary policy shocks, and consider the time profiles of their effects on the euro area. To this end we include the US model as the first country model and consider alternative orderings of the US variables. Further to the US monetary policy shock, we also consider oil price, US equity and US real output shocks.

Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis

This paper quantifies the magnitude and time-varying nature of volatility spillovers from the aggregate European (EU) and US market to 13 local European equity markets. I develop a shock spillover model that decomposes local unexpected returns into a country specific shock, a regional European shock, and a global shock from the US. The innovation of the model is that regime switches in the shock spillover parameters are accounted for. I find that these regime switches are both statistically and economically important. While both the EU and US shock spillover intensity has increased over the 1980s and 1990s, the rise is more pronounced for EU spillovers. For most countries, the largest increases in shock spillover intensity are situated in the second half of 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Increased trade integration, equity market development, and low inflation are shown to have contributed to the increase in EU shock spillover intensity. Finally, I find some evidence for contagion from the US market to a number of local European equity markets during periods of high world market volatility.

Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets

This study investigates the pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area on the basis of surveys conducted by nine Eurosystem national central banks, covering more than 11,000 firms. The results, robust across countries, show that firms operate in monopolistically competitive markets, where prices are mostly set following markup rules and where price discrimination is common. Around one-third of firms follow mainly time-dependent pricing rules while two-thirds allow for elements of state-dependence. The majority of firms take into account past and expected economic developments in their pricing decisions. Price stickiness is mainly driven by customer relationships - explicit and implicit contracts - and coordination failure. Firms adjust prices asymmetrically in response to shocks: while cost shocks have a greater impact when prices have to be raised than when they have to be reduced, reductions in demand are more likely to induce a price change than increases in demand.

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The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence

/pdf/sticky-prices-in-the-euro-area-a-summary-of-new-micro-aip9uw6iuz.pdf

Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro

/pdf/interbank-exposures-an-empirical-examination-of-systemic-ibipf78yzf.pdf

Interbank exposures: an empirical examination of systemic risk in the

In this paper, we present a set of specific measures to quantify the state and evolution of financial integration in the euro area. Five key markets are considered, namely the money, corporate bond, government bond, credit and equity markets. Building upon the law of one price, we developed two types of indicators that can be broadly categorised as price-based and news-based measures. We complemented these measures by a number of quantity-based indicators, mainly related to the evolution of the home bias. Results indicate that the unsecured money market is fully integrated, while integration is reasonably high in the government and corporate bond market, as well as in the equity markets. The credit market is among the least integrated, especially in the short-term segment.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/154467/1/ecbop014.pdf

Measuring financial integration in the euro area

This paper analyses the cross-country heterogeneity in retail bank lending rates in the euro area and presents newly developed pass-through models that account for the riskiness of borrowers, the balance sheet constraints of lenders and sovereign debt tensions affecting interest rate-setting behaviour. Country evidence for the four largest euro area countries shows that downward adjustments in policy rates and market reference rates have translated into a concomitant reduction in bank lending rates. In the case of Spain and Italy, however, sovereign bond market tensions and a deteriorating macroeconomic environment have put upward pressure on composite lending rates to non-financial corporations and households. At the same time, model simulations suggest that higher lending rates have propagated to the broader economy by depressing economic activity and inflation. As a response to increasing financial fragmentation, the ECB has introduced several standard and non-standard monetary policy measures. These measures have gone a long way towards alleviating financial market tensions in the euro area. However, in order to ensure the adequate transmission of monetary policy to financing conditions, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets is reduced further and the resilience of banks strengthened where needed. Simulation analysis confirms that receding financial fragmentation could help to boost economic activity in the euro area in the medium term.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/154608/1/ecbop155.pdf

The retail bank interest rate pass-through: The case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis

This paper examines the cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options. The data used in the empirical analysis consist of daily observations of implied volatilities for OTC options on the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar, quoted against the U.S. dollar. The empirical findings demonstrate that two common factors can explain a vast proportion of the variation in volatility term structures across currencies. Furthermore, the results indicate that the euro is the dominant currency, as the implied volatility term structure of the euro is found to affect all the other volatility term structures, while the term structure of the euro appears to be virtually unaffected by the other currencies. Finally, our results reveal a rather deviant relation between the volatility term structures of the euro and Swiss franc by providing evidence of significant nonlinearities in the relationship between these two currencies.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID804944_code485639.pdf?abstractid=804944&mirid=5

Cross-Dynamics of Volatility Term Structures Implied by Foreign Exchange Options

This paper analyses the cross-country heterogeneity in retail bank lending rates in the euro area and presents newly developed pass-through models that account for the riskiness of borrowers, the balance sheet constraints of lenders and sovereign debt tensions affecting interest rate-setting behaviour. Country evidence for the four largest euro area countries shows that downward adjustments in policy rates and market reference rates have translated into a concomitant reduction in bank lending rates. In the case of Spain and Italy, however, sovereign bond market tensions and a deteriorating macroeconomic environment have put upward pressure on composite lending rates to non-financial corporations and households. At the same time, model simulations suggest that higher lending rates have propagated to the broader economy by depressing economic activity and inflation. As a response to increasing financial fragmentation, the ECB has introduced several standard and non-standard monetary policy measures. These measures have gone a long way towards alleviating financial market tensions in the euro area. However, in order to ensure the adequate transmission of monetary policy to financing conditions, it is essential that the fragmentation of euro area credit markets is reduced further and the resilience of banks strengthened where needed. Simulation analysis confirms that receding financial fragmentation could help to boost economic activity in the euro area in the medium term. JEL Classification: J64

Elizaveta Krylova

Papers

Measuring financial integration in the euro area

The retail bank interest rate pass-through: The case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis

Cross-Dynamics of Volatility Term Structures Implied by Foreign Exchange Options

The retail bank interest rate pass-through: The case of the euro area during the financial and sovereign debt crisis

Cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options