Showing papers in "Social Science Research Network in 2005"

Toward a Theory of International New Ventures

Abstract: Organizations that are international from inception – international new ventures – form an increasingly important phenomenon that is incongruent with traditionally expected characteristics of multinational enterprises. A framework is presented that explains the phenomenon by integrating international business, entrepreneurship, and strategic management theory. That framework describes four necessary and sufficient elements for the existence of international new ventures: (1) organizational formation through internalization of some transactions, (2) strong reliance on alternative governance structures to access resources, (3) establishment of foreign location advantages, and (4) control over unique resources.

Social Entrepreneurship Reserach: a Source of Explanation, Prediction and Delight

Abstract: Social entrepreneurship, as a practice and a field for scholarly investigation, provides a unique opportunity to challenge, question, and rethink concepts and assumptions from different fields of management and business research. This paper puts forward a view of social entrepreneurship as a process that catalyzes social change and/or addresses important social needs in a way that is not dominated by direct financial benefits for the entrepreneurs. Social entrepreneurship is seen as differing from other forms of entrepreneurship in the relatively higher priority given to promoting social value and development versus capturing economic value. To stimulate future research the authors introduce the concept of embeddedness as a nexus between theoretical perspectives for the study of social entrepreneurship. Different research methodologies and their implications are discussed.

Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market

Abstract: I quantitatively measure the nature of the media's interactions with the stock market using daily content from a popular Wall Street Journal column. I find that high media pessimism predicts downward pressure on market prices followed by a reversion to fundamentals, and unusually high or low pessimism predicts high market trading volume. These results and others are consistent with theoretical models of noise and liquidity traders. However, the evidence is inconsistent with theories of media content as a proxy for new information about fundamental asset values, as a proxy for market volatility, or as a sideshow with no relationship to asset markets.

Incentives and Prosocial Behavior

Abstract: We build a theory of prosocial behavior that combines heterogeneity in individual altruism and greed with concerns for social reputation or self-respect. The presence of rewards or punishments creates doubt as to the true motive for which good deeds are performed, and this "overjustification effect" can result in a net crowding out of prosocial behavior by extrinsic incentives. The model also allows us to identify settings that are conducive to multiple social norms of behavior, and those where disclosing one's generosity may backfire. Finally, we analyze the equilibrium contracts offered by sponsors, including the level and confidentiality or publicity of incentives. Sponsor competition may cause rewards to bid down rather than up, and can even reduce social welfare by requiring agents to engage in inefficient sacrifices.

Governance matters IV : governance indicators for 1996-2004

Abstract: The authors present the latest update of their aggregate governance indicators, together with new analysis of several issues related to the use of these measures. The governance indicators measure the following six dimensions of governance: (1) voice and accountability; (2) political instability and violence; (3) government effectiveness; (4) regulatory quality; (5) rule of law, and (6) control of corruption. They cover 209 countries and territories for 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004. They are based on several hundred individual variables measuring perceptions of governance, drawn from 37 separate data sources constructed by 31 organizations. The authors present estimates of the six dimensions of governance for each period, as well as margins of error capturing the range of likely values for each country. These margins of error are not unique to perceptions-based measures of governance, but are an important feature of all efforts to measure governance, including objective indicators. In fact, the authors give examples of how individual objective measures provide an incomplete picture of even the quite particular dimensions of governance that they are intended to measure. The authors also analyze in detail changes over time in their estimates of governance; provide a framework for assessing the statistical significance of changes in governance; and suggest a simple rule of thumb for identifying statistically significant changes in country governance over time. The ability to identify significant changes in governance over time is much higher for aggregate indicators than for any individual indicator. While the authors find that the quality of governance in a number of countries has changed significantly (in both directions), they also provide evidence suggesting that there are no trends, for better or worse, in global averages of governance. Finally, they interpret the strong observed correlation between income and governance, and argue against recent efforts to apply a discount to governance performance in low-income countries.

CEO Incentives and Earnings Management

Abstract: We provide evidence that the use of discretionary accruals to manipulate reported earnings is more pronounced at firms where the CEO's potential total compensation is more closely tied to the value of stock and option holdings. In addition, during years of high accruals, CEOs exercise unusually large amounts of options and CEOs and other insiders sell large quantities of shares.

Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels

Abstract: This paper proposes a modified version of Swamy's test of slope homogeneity for panel data models where the cross section dimension (N) could be large relative to the time series dimension (T). The proposed test exploits the cross section dispersion of individual slopes weighted by their relative precision. In the case of models with strictly exogenous regressors and normally distributed errors, the test is shown to have a standard normal distribution. Using Monte Carlo experiments, it is shown that the test has the correct size and satisfactory power in panels with strictly exogenous regressors for various combinations of N and T. For autoregressive (AR) models the proposed test performs well for moderate values of the root of the autoregressive process. But for AR models with roots near unity a bias-corrected bootstrapped version of the test is proposed which performs well even if N is large relative to T. The proposed cross section dispersion tests are applied to testing the homogeneity of slopes in autoregressive models of individual earnings using the PSID data. The results show statistically significant evidence of slope heterogeneity in the earnings dynamics, even when individuals with similar educational backgrounds are considered as sub-sets.

A Theory of Friendly Boards

Abstract: This paper analyzes the consequences of the board's dual role as an advisor as well as a monitor of management. As a result of this dual role, the CEO faces a trade-off in disclosing information to the board. On the one hand, if he reveals his information, he gets better advice. On the other hand, a more informed board will monitor him more intensively. Since an independent board is a tougher monitor, the CEO may be reluctant to share information with it. Thus, our model shows that management-friendly boards can be optimal. Using the insights from the model, we analyze the differences between a sole board system, such as in the United States, and the dual board system, as in various countries in Europe. We highlight several policy implications of our analysis.

Managing Potential and Realized Absorptive Capacity: How Do Organizational Antecedents Matter?

Abstract: This study explores how organizational antecedents affect potential and realized absorptive capacity. Our study identifies differential effects for both components of absorptive capacity. Results indicate that organizational mechanisms associated with coordination capabilities (i.e. cross-functional interfaces, participation in decision-making, and job rotation) primarily enhance a unit's potential absorptive capacity. Organizational mechanisms associated with socialization capabilities (i.e. connectedness and socialization tactics) primarily increase a unit's realized absorptive capacity. Our findings reveal why units may have difficulties in managing levels of potential and realized absorptive capacity and vary in their ability to create value from their absorptive capacity.

Strategy Research in Emerging Economies: Challenging the Conventional Wisdom

Abstract: This review and introduction to the Special Issue on 'Strategy Research in Emerging Economies' considers the nature of theoretical contributions thus far on strategy in emerging economies. We classify the research through four strategic options: (1) firms from developed economies entering emerging economies; (2) domestic firms competing within emerging economies; (3) firms from emerging economies entering other emerging economies; and (4) firms from emerging economies entering developed economies. Among the four perspectives examined (institutional theory, transaction cost theory, resource-based theory, and agency theory), the most dominant seems to be institutional theory. Most existing studies that make a contribution blend institutional theory with one of the other three perspectives, including seven out of the eight papers included in this Special Issue. We suggest a future research agenda based around the four strategies and four theoretical perspectives. Given the relative emphasis of research so far on the first and second strategic options, we believe that there is growing scope for research that addresses the third and fourth.

Interpreting the evidence on life cycle skill formation

Abstract: This paper presents economic models of child development that capture the essence of recent findings from the empirical literature on skill formation. The goal of this essay is to provide a theoretical framework for interpreting the evidence from a vast empirical literature, for guiding the next generation of empirical studies, and for formulating policy. Central to our analysis is the concept that childhood has more than one stage. We formalize the concepts of self-productivity and complementarity of human capital investments and use them to explain the evidence on skill formation. Together, they explain why skill begets skill through a multiplier process. Skill formation is a life cycle process. It starts in the womb and goes on throughout life. Families play a role in this process that is far more important than the role of schools. There are multiple skills and multiple abilities that are important for adult success. Abilities are both inherited and created, and the traditional debate about nature versus nurture is scientiÞcally obsolete. Human capital investment exhibits both self-productivity and complementarity. Skill attainment at one stage of the life cycle raises skill attainment at later stages of the life cycle (self-productivity). Early investment facilitates the productivity of later investment (complementarity). Early investments are not productive if they are not followed up by later investments (another aspect of complementarity). This complementarity explains why there is no equity-efficiency trade-off for early investment. The returns to investing early in the life cycle are high. Remediation of inadequate early investments is difficult and very costly as a consequence of both self-productivity and complementarity.

Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?

Abstract: There is considerable evidence that producer-level churning contributes substantially to aggregate (industry) productivity growth, as more productive businesses displace less productive ones. However, this research has been limited by the fact that producer-level prices are typically unobserved; thus within-industry price differences are embodied in productivity measures. If prices reflect idiosyncratic demand or market power shifts, high "productivity" businesses may not be particularly efficient, and the literature's findings might be better interpreted as evidence of entering businesses displacing less profitable, but not necessarily less productive, exiting businesses. In this paper, we investigate the nature of selection and productivity growth using data from industries where we observe producer-level quantities and prices separately. We show there are important differences between revenue and physical productivity. A key dissimilarity is that physical productivity is inversely correlated with plant-level prices while revenue productivity is positively correlated with prices. This implies that previous work linking (revenue-based) productivity to survival has confounded the separate and opposing effects of technical efficiency and demand on survival, understating the true impacts of both. We further show that young producers charge lower prices than incumbents, and as such the literature understates the productivity advantage of new producers and the contribution of entry to aggregate productivity growth.

Corporate Governance and the Value of Cash Holdings

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how corporate governance impacts firm value by examining both the value and the use of cash holdings in poorly and well governed firms. Cash represents a large and growing fraction of corporate assets and generally is at the discretion of management. We use several measures of corporate governance and show that governance has a substantial impact on firm value through its impact on cash: $1.00 of cash in a poorly governed firm is valued by the market at only $0.42 to $0.88, depending on the measure of governance. Good governance approximately doubles this value of cash. Furthermore, governance has a significant impact on how firms use cash. We show that firms with poor corporate governance dissipate cash quickly and in ways that significantly reduce operating performance. This negative impact of large cash holdings on future operating performance is cancelled out if the firm is well governed. All of our results hold after controlling for the level of acquisitions undertaken by cash rich firms, indicating that acquisitions are not solely responsible for the value destruction in poorly governed, cash rich firms. The findings presented in this paper provide direct evidence of how governance can improve or destroy firm value and insight into the importance of governance in determining corporate cash policy.

Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models

Abstract: Forecast evaluation often compares a parsimonious null model to a larger model that nests the null model. Under the null that the parsimonious model generates the data, the larger model introduces noise into its forecasts by estimating parameters whose population values are zero. We observe that the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) from the parsimonious model is therefore expected to be smaller than that of the larger model. We describe how to adjust MSPEs to account for this noise. We propose applying standard methods (West (1996)) to test whether the adjusted mean squared error difference is zero. We refer to nonstandard limiting distributions derived in Clark and McCracken (2001, 2005a) to argue that use of standard normal critical values will yield actual sizes close to, but a little less than, nominal size. Simulation evidence supports our recommended procedure.

Growth, Beta and Agency Costs as Determinants of Dividend Payout Ratios

Abstract: A model of optimal dividend payout is presented in which increased dividends lower agency costs but raise the transactions cost of external financing. The optimal dividend payout ratio minimizes the sum of these two costs. A cross-sectional test of the model relates dividend payout to the fraction of equity held by insiders, the past and expected future revenue growth of the firm, the firm's beta coefficient, and the number of common stockholders. The coefficients of all variables are significant in the predicted directions. The results indicate that investment policy influences dividend policy.

Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys

Abstract: Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the magnitude of bias, the use of extrapolations led to substantial improvements over a strategy of not using extrapolations.

Sustainable Operations Management

Abstract: Operations management researchers and practitioners face new challenges in integrating issues of sustainability with their traditional areas of interest. During the past 20 years, there has been growing pressure on businesses to pay more attention to the environmental and resource consequences of the products and services they offer and the processes they deploy. One symptom of this pressure is the movement towards triple bottom line reporting (3BL) concerning the relationship of profit, people and the planet. The resulting challenges include integrating environmental, health, and safety concerns with green product design, lean and green operations, and closed-loop supply chains. We review these and other 'sustainability' themes covered in the first 50 issues of Production and Operations Management and conclude with some thoughts on future research challenges in sustainable operations management.

In Search of Distress Risk

Abstract: This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks using US data over the period 1963 to 2003. Firms with higher leverage, lower profitability, lower market capitalization, lower past stock returns, more volatile past stock returns, lower cash holdings, higher market-book ratios, and lower prices per share are more likely to file for bankruptcy, be delisted, or receive a D rating. When predicting failure at longer horizons, the most persistent firm characteristics, market capitalization, the market-book ratio, and equity volatility become relatively more significant. Our model captures much of the time variation in the aggregate failure rate. Since 1981, financially distressed stocks have delivered anomalously low returns. They have lower returns but much higher standard deviations, market betas, and loadings on value and small-cap risk factors than stocks with a low risk of failure. These patterns hold in all size quintiles but are particularly strong in smaller stocks. They are inconsistent with the conjecture that the value and size effects are compensation for the risk of financial distress.

Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm Level Data

Abstract: While the role of exports in promoting growth in general, and productivity in particular, has been investigated empirically using aggregate data for countries and industries for a long time, only recently have comprehensive longitudinal data at the firm level been used to look at the extent and causes of productivity differentials between exporters and their counterparts which sell on the domestic market only. This paper surveys the empirical strategies applied, and the results produced, in 45 microeconometric studies with data from 33 countries that were published between 1995 and 2004. Details aside, exporters are found to be more productive than non-exporters, and the more productive firms self-select into export markets, while exporting does not necessarily improve productivity.

Corporate Governance and Acquirer Returns

Abstract: We examine whether corporate governance mechanisms, especially the market for corporate control, affect the profitability of firm acquisitions. We find that acquirers with more anti-takeover provisions experience significantly lower announcement-period stock returns than other acquirers. We also find that acquiring firms operating in more competitive industries or separating the positions of CEO and chairman of the board experience higher abnormal announcement returns. Our results support the hypothesis that managers protected by more anti-takeover provisions face weaker discipline from the market for corporate control and thus, are more likely to indulge in empire-building acquisitions that destroy shareholder value. They provide a partial explanation for why anti-takeover provision indices of Gompers, Ishii and Metrick and others are negatively correlated with shareholder value.

Do Managers Withhold Bad News

Abstract: In this study, we examine whether managers delay disclosure of bad news relative to good news. If managers accumulate and withhold bad news up to a certain threshold, but leak and immediately reveal good news to investors, then we expect the magnitude of the negative stock price reaction to bad news disclosures to be greater than the magnitude of the positive stock price reaction to good news disclosures. We present evidence consistent with this prediction. Our analysis suggests that management, on average, delays the release of bad news to investors.

Dividend Policy and the Earned/Contributed Capital Mix: A Test of the Lifecycle Theory

Abstract: Consistent with a lifecycle theory of dividends, the fraction of publicly traded industrial firms that pays dividends is high when retained earnings are a large portion of total equity (and of total assets) and falls to near zero when most equity is contributed rather than earned. We observe a highly significant relation between the decision to pay dividends and the earned/contributed capital mix, controlling for profitability, growth, firm size, leverage, cash balances, and dividend history, a relation that also holds for dividend initiations and omissions. In our regressions, the mix of earned/contributed capital has a quantitatively greater impact than measures of profitability and growth opportunities. We document a massive increase in firms with negative retained earnings (from 11.8% of industrials in 1978 to 50.2% in 2002). Controlling for the earned/contributed capital mix, firms with negative retained earnings show virtually no change in their propensity to pay dividends from the mid-1970s to 2002, while those whose earned equity makes them reasonable candidates to pay dividends have a propensity reduction that is twice the overall reduction in Fama and French (2001). All our evidence supports the lifecycle theory of dividends, in which a firm's stage in that cycle is well-proxied by its mix of internal and external capital.

A Capabilities Perspective on the Effects of Early Internationalization on Firm Survival and Growth

Abstract: Recent critiques of internationalization process models question the wisdom of delaying internationalization. Internationalizing late allows firms to assemble resources and gain experience but also allows inertia to develop. We resolve this tension by positing that internationalization has differing effects on firm survival and growth. These effects are moderated by organizational age, managerial experience, and resource fungibility. Our framework provides insights into the evolution of capabilities across borders and may be tested and built upon by organization researchers.

Political Risk, Institutions and Foreign Direct Investment

Abstract: The paper explores the linkages between political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment inflows. Using different econometric techniques for a data sample of 83 developing countries and the period 1984 to 2003, we identify those indicators that matter most for the activities of multinational corporations. Overall, 12 different indicators for political risk and institutions are employed in the empirical analysis. The results show that government stability, the absence of internal conflict and ethnic tensions, basic democratic rights and ensuring law and order are highly significant determinants of foreign investment inflows.

Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? 1

Abstract: Developments in the financial sector have led to an expansion in its ability to spread risks. The increase in the risk bearing capacity of economies, as well as in actual risk taking, has led to a range of financial transactions that hitherto were not possible, and has created much greater access to finance for firms and households. On net, this has made the world much better off. Concurrently, however, we have also seen the emergence of a whole range of intermediaries, whose size and appetite for risk may expand over the cycle. Not only can these intermediaries accentuate real fluctuations, they can also leave themselves exposed to certain small probability risks that their own collective behavior makes more likely. As a result, under some conditions, economies may be more exposed to financial-sector-induced turmoil than in the past. The paper discusses the implications for monetary policy and prudential supervision. In particular, it suggests market-friendly policies that would reduce the incentive of intermediary managers to take excessive risk. 1 The author is the Economic Counselor and Director of Research of the International Monetary Fund. This paper reflects the author’s views and not necessarily those of the International Monetary Fund, its management, or its Board. I thank Laura Kodres for extremely useful conversations and suggestions, Sergei Antoshin for valuable research assistance, and Douglas Diamond, Jonathan Fiechter, Laura Kodres, Donald Kohn, Hyun Shin, Jeremy Stein, and Hung Tran for valuable comments on a previous draft.

Boards: Does One Size Fit All?

Abstract: This paper re-examines (1) the relation between firm value and board structure and (2) the factors associated with cross-sectional variation in board structure. Conventional wisdom and existing empirical research suggest that firm value decreases as the size of the firm's board increases, and as the fraction of insiders on the board increases. In this paper, we argue that, contrary to conventional wisdom, some firms may benefit from having larger boards and greater fraction of insiders on the board. Outside directors serve both to monitor top management and to advise the CEO on business strategy. The monitoring role of the board has been studied extensively and the general consensus is that smaller boards are more effective at monitoring. The argument is that smaller groups are more cohesive, more productive, and can monitor the firm more effectively whereas large groups are fraught with problems such as social loafing and higher co-ordination costs. The advisory role of the board, however, has received far less attention. Since one function of board members is to provide advice and counsel to the CEO, we hypothesize that firms that require more advice (more complex firms) will need larger boards. In particular, we hypothesize that larger firms, diversified firms, and firms that rely more on debt financing, will derive greater firm value from having larger boards. Similarly, certain kinds of firms might benefit from higher insider representation on the board. Inside directors possess more firm-specific knowledge. Thus we conjecture that firms for which the firm-specific knowledge of insiders is relatively important, such as R&D-intensive firms, may derive greater value from having higher fraction of insiders on the board. Our findings are consistent with our hypotheses. For firms that have greater advising requirements, such as those that are large, diversified across industries, and rely more on debt financing, we find that Tobin's Q increases in board size. Furthermore, in firms for which the firm-specific knowledge of insiders is relatively important, such as R&D-intensive firms, Tobin's Q increases with the fraction of insiders on the board. Firms with high advising requirements have larger boards. Also, firms with high R&D have larger fraction of insiders on the board. These results challenge the notion that exchange listing requirements, mandates from institutional investors, and restrictions in the law, specifically those that limit board size and management representation on the board, necessarily enhance firm value.

The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting

Abstract: We survey 401 financial executives, and conduct in-depth interviews with an additional 20, to determine the key factors that drive decisions related to performance measurement and voluntary disclosure. The majority of firms view earnings, especially EPS, as the key metric for an external audience, more so than cash flows. We find that the majority of managers would avoid initiating a positive NPV project if it meant falling short of the current quarter's consensus earnings. Similarly, more than three-fourths of the surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings. Managers believe that missing an earnings target or reporting volatile earnings reduces the predictability of earnings, which in turn reduces stock price because investors and analysts dislike uncertainty. We also find that managers make voluntary disclosures to reduce information risk associated with their stock but at the same time, try to avoid setting a disclosure precedent that will be difficult to maintain. In general, management's views support stock price motivations for earnings management and voluntary disclosure, but provide only modest evidence consistent with other theories of these phenomena (such as debt, political cost and bonus plan based hypotheses).

Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of trade liberalization on plant productivity. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between productivity gains arising from lower tariffs on final goods relative to those on intermediate inputs. Lower output tariffs can produce productivity gains by inducing tougher import competition whereas cheaper imported inputs can raise productivity via learning, variety or quality effects. We use Indonesian manufacturing census data from 1991 to 2001, which includes plant level information on imported inputs. The results show that the largest gains arise from reducing input tariffs. A 10 percentage point fall in output tariffs increases productivity by about 1%, whereas an equivalent fall in input tariffs leads to a 3% productivity gain for all firms and an 11% productivity gain for importing firms.

Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions

Abstract: We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in recent years because house prices are theoretically more sensitive to interest rates when rates are already low, and more sensitive still in those cities where the long-run rate of house price growth is high. During the 1980s, our measures show that houses looked most overvalued in many of the same cities that subsequently experienced the largest house price declines. We find that from the trough of 1995 to 2004, the cost of owning rose somewhat relative to the cost of renting, but not, in most cities, to levels that made houses look overvalued.

Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements

Abstract: Using a database of more than 1.85 million transactions made by retail investors over a six-year period (1991-96), we show that these trades are systematically correlated − i.e., individuals buy (or sell) stocks in concert. Moreover, as predicted by noise trader models, we find that systematic retail trading explains return comovements for stocks with high retail concentration (i.e., small-cap, value, lower institutional ownership, and lower-priced stocks), especially if these stocks are also costly to arbitrage. Macro-economic news and analyst earnings forecast revisions do not explain these results. Collectively, our findings support a role for investor sentiment in returns formation.