Dedicated to the memory of three pioneers, Ihsan Ketin, Sirri Erinc and Melih Tokay, and a recent student, Aykut Barka, who burnt himself out in pursuit of the mysteries of the North Anatolian Fault. ▪ Abstract The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is a 1200-km-long dextral strike-slip fault zone that formed by progressive strain localization in a generally westerly widening right-lateral keirogen in northern Turkey mostly along an interface juxtaposing subduction-accretion material to its south and older and stiffer continental basements to its north. The NAF formed approximately 13 to 11 Ma ago in the east and propagated westward. It reached the Sea of Marmara no earlier than 200 ka ago, although shear-related deformation in a broad zone there had already commenced in the late Miocene. The fault zone has a very distinct morphological expression and is seismically active. Since the seventeenth century, it has shown cyclical seismic behavior, with century-long cycles beginning in the east and progressing westwa...

The north anatolian fault: a new look

We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.

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Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation

Earthquake scarps associated with recent historical events have been found on the floor of the Sea of Marmara, along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF). The MARMARASCARPS cruise using an unmanned submersible (ROV) provides direct observations to study the fine-scale morphology and geology of those scarps, their distribution, and geometry. The observations are consistent with the diversity of fault mechanisms and the fault segmentation within the north Marmara extensional step-over, between the strike-slip Ganos and Izmit faults. Smaller strike-slip segments and pull-apart basins alternate within the main step-over, commonly combining strike-slip and extension. Rapid sedimentation rates of 1?3 mm/yr appear to compete with normal faulting components of up to 6 mm/yr at the pull-apart margins. In spite of the fast sedimentation rates the submarine scarps are preserved and accumulate relief. Sets of youthful earthquake scarps extend offshore from the Ganos and Izmit faults on land into the Sea of Marmara. Our observations suggest that they correspond to the submarine ruptures of the 1999 Izmit (Mw 7.4) and the 1912 Ganos (Ms 7.4) earthquakes. While the 1999 rupture ends at the immediate eastern entrance of the extensional Cinarcik Basin, the 1912 rupture appears to have crossed the Ganos restraining bend into the Sea of Marmara floor for 60 km with a right-lateral slip of 5 m, ending in the Central Basin step-over. From the Gulf of Saros to Marmara the total 1912 rupture length is probably about 140 km, not 50 km as previously thought. The direct observations of submarine scarps in Marmara are critical to defining barriers that have arrested past earthquakes as well as defining a possible segmentation of the contemporary state of loading. Incorporating the submarine scarp evidence modifies substantially our understanding of the current state of loading along the NAF next to Istanbul. Coulomb stress modeling shows a zone of maximum loading with at least 4?5 m of slip deficit encompassing the strike-slip segment 70 km long between the Cinarcik and Central Basins. That segment alone would be capable of generating a large-magnitude earthquake (Mw 7.2). Other segments in Marmara appear less loaded.

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Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul

We have updated the active fault map of Turkey and built its database within GIS environment. In the study, four distinct active fault types, classified according to geochronological criteria and character, were delineated on the 1:25,000 base map of Turkey. 176 fault segments not included in the former active fault map of Turkey, have been identified and documented. We infer that there are 485 single fault segments which are substantially potential seismic sources. In total 1964 active-fault base-maps were transferred into the GIS environment. Each fault was attributed with key parameters such as class, activity, type, length, trend, and attitude of fault plane. The fault parameters are also supported by slip-rate and seismogenic depth inferred from available GPS, seismological and paleoseismological data. Additionally, expected maximum magnitude for each fault segment was estimated by empirical equations. We present the database in a parametric catalogue of fault segments to be of interest in earthquake engineering and seismotectonics. The study provides essential geological and seismological inputs for regional seismic hazard analysis of all over Turkey and its vicinity.

Active fault database of Turkey

Tectonic evolution of the Marmara Sea and its surroundings

The seismotectonics of the Marmara region (Turkey): results from a microseismic experiment

https://web.itu.edu.tr/~taymaz/docs/MAktar-etal.pdf

F. Bicmen

Papers

The seismotectonics of the Marmara region (Turkey): results from a microseismic experiment

Spatial variation of aftershock activity across the rupture zone of the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake, Turkey

Seismogenic zones of the sea of Marmara: recent seismicity and focal mechanism solutions