Energy consumption forecasting for buildings has immense value in energy efficiency and sustainability research. Accurate energy forecasting models have numerous implications in planning and energy optimization of buildings and campuses. For new buildings, where past recorded data is unavailable, computer simulation methods are used for energy analysis and forecasting future scenarios. However, for existing buildings with historically recorded time series energy data, statistical and machine learning techniques have proved to be more accurate and quick. This study presents a comprehensive review of the existing machine learning techniques for forecasting time series energy consumption. Although the emphasis is given to a single time series data analysis, the review is not just limited to it since energy data is often co-analyzed with other time series variables like outdoor weather and indoor environmental conditions. The nine most popular forecasting techniques that are based on the machine learning platform are analyzed. An in-depth review and analysis of the ‘hybrid model’, that combines two or more forecasting techniques is also presented. The various combinations of the hybrid model are found to be the most effective in time series energy forecasting for building.

A review on time series forecasting techniques for building energy consumption

Accurate load forecasting is an important issue for the reliable and efficient operation of a power system. This study presents a hybrid algorithm that combines similar days (SD) selection, empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to construct a prediction model (i.e., SD-EMD-LSTM) for short-term load forecasting. The extreme gradient boosting-based weighted k-means algorithm is used to evaluate the similarity between the forecasting and historical days. The EMD method is employed to decompose the SD load to several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residual. Separated LSTM neural networks were also employed to forecast each IMF and residual. Lastly, the forecasting values from each LSTM model were reconstructed. Numerical testing demonstrates that the SD-EMD-LSTM method can accurately forecast the electric load.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Using EMD-LSTM Neural Networks with a Xgboost Algorithm for Feature Importance Evaluation

Bitcoin has recently attracted considerable attention in the fields of economics, cryptography, and computer science due to its inherent nature of combining encryption technology and monetary units. This paper reveals the effect of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) by analyzing the time series of Bitcoin process. We also select the most relevant features from Blockchain information that is deeply involved in Bitcoin’s supply and demand and use them to train models to improve the predictive performance of the latest Bitcoin pricing process. We conduct the empirical study that compares the Bayesian neural network with other linear and non-linear benchmark models on modeling and predicting the Bitcoin process. Our empirical studies show that BNN performs well in predicting Bitcoin price time series and explaining the high volatility of the recent Bitcoin price.

Fazil Kaytez

Papers

Forecasting electricity consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, neural networks and least squares support vector machines