Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models. Moreover, operational predictions often integrate anecdotal information and unmodeled factors. Forecasting agencies face four key challenges: 1)making themost of available data, 2)making accurate predictions usingmodels, 3) turning hydrometeorological forecasts into effective warnings, and 4) administering an operational service. Each challenge presents a variety of research opportunities, including the development of automated quality-control algorithms for the myriad of data used in operational streamflow forecasts, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting techniques that allow for forecaster input, methods for using humangenerated weather forecasts quantitatively, and quantification of human interference in the hydrologic cycle. Furthermore, much can be done to improve the communication of probabilistic forecasts and to design a forecasting paradigm that effectively combines increasingly sophisticated forecasting technology with subjective forecaster expertise. These areas are described in detail to share a real-world perspective and focus for ongoing research endeavors. Open Access Content

/pdf/challenges-of-operational-river-forecasting-21s40ep2lf.pdf

Challenges of operational river forecasting

In this article, two criteria are suggested to inspect whether a model of geospatial information diffusion is valid to fill in the missing observation in a gap unit. The first criterion serves for inspecting a gap unit in the study area, from which a sample is taken to train the model. The second criterion serves for a gap unit outside the area but nearby. The standard deviation of the trained model plays a key role in the former. The valid radiance determined by the maximum distance between the units of the sample point passed the test and the center of the study area plays an important role in the latter.

Risk Analysis Based on Data and Crisis Response Beyond Knowledge : Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response (RACR 2019), October 15-19, 2019, Athens, Greece

Subcooled flow boiling heat transfer of water in a circular tube under high heat fluxes and high mass fluxes

Fusion energy conversion in magnetically confined plasma reactors

The AGU statement on the investigation of Italian scientists and officials in regard to the L'Aquila earthquake (Eos, 91(28), 248, 13 July 2010) appears to be a noble attempt to protect not only these individuals but also those AGU members who are involved in similar hazard and risk assessments. But in the long run this statement not only damages AGU by misleading its membership as to the responsibilities of the indicted individuals but also sends the wrong message to the Italian scientific communities about their social responsibilities.

The AGU statement assumes that the indicted individuals are innocent because it is not possible for scientists to predict earthquakes, but it neglects to explain what their scientific responsibilities are and why these individuals may be also guilty of failing to properly exercise their social responsibility. If one accepts public funds, has the responsibility of deciding how to manage those funds, and is playing the double role of a scientist and a politician, one is also responsible for both the scientific and social consequences of one's actions. Because some of the indicted individuals are also responsible for drafting and promoting the unreliable Vesuvius Evacuation Plan (http://www.westnet.com/~dobran), they should also be accountable for the consequences in the Vesuvius area.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2010EO420007

Further Comment on “AGU Statement: Investigation of Scientists and Officials in L'Aquila, Italy, Is Unfounded”

Energy generation with fossil fuels produces emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and releases toxic chemicals into the environment. Greenhouse gases produce global warming which can cause climate change and costly human displacements. Toxic chemicals released into the environment produce health problems and damage the ecosystems. With fossil fuels providing today over 85% of energy needs and the Earth’s population projected to increase by several billion people and energy needs projected to double by the middle of this century, considerable pressure exists to develop sustainable energy supply services. This poses an enormous challenge to engineers, economists, and policy makers. The energy mix required to produce energy for humanity depends on the availability of energy resources, security of energy supply, climate change requirements, technological breakthroughs, financial conditions, and public acceptance. Population, standard of living, toxic and greenhouse gas emissions, thermodynamic limits imposed on biophysical processes, and economics and ethics of resource utilization produce some key sustainability indicators or attributes that need to be employed for guiding our path toward a sustainable energy future. Following a general discussion of indicators and frameworks of indicators, a small number of energy supply values or objectives are presented for the purpose of developing attributes that can measure the degree of accomplishment of these objectives. A systems approach is then employed to define indicators for generic energy supply services and a risk-based multi-criteria decision making procedure is presented for deciding which energy supply service option is most sustainable. The methodology can be applied locally, regionally, and globally, by both the energy services providers and energy policy makers.© 2011 ASME

Flavio Dobran

Papers

Fusion energy conversion in magnetically confined plasma reactors

Further Comment on “AGU Statement: Investigation of Scientists and Officials in L'Aquila, Italy, Is Unfounded”

Sustainability Attributes and Their Implementation in Energy Resources Utilization