Remaining useful life estimation - A review on the statistical data driven approaches

This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model.

/pdf/online-short-term-solar-power-forecasting-1ljgpbshkb.pdf

Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change.

Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

https://hal-supelec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00610470/document

A data-driven fuzzy approach for predicting the remaining useful life in dynamic failure scenarios of a nuclear system

https://research.birmingham.ac.uk/portal/files/53643809/APEN2017.pdf

Performance-based health monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for condition-based maintenance of gas turbines: A review

Prognostic is nowadays recognized as a key feature in maintenance strategies as it should allow avoiding inopportune maintenance spending. Real prognostic systems are however scarce in industry. That can be explained from different aspects, on of them being the difficulty of choosing an efficient technology: many approaches to support the prognostic process exist, whose applicability is highly dependent on industrial constraints. Thus, the general purpose of the paper is to explore the way of performing failure prognostics so that manager can act consequently. Different aspects of prognostic are discussed. The prognostic process is (re)defined and an overview of prognostic metrics is given. Following that, the “prognostic approaches” are described. The whole aims at giving an overview of the prognostic area, both from the academic and industrial points of views.

/pdf/review-of-prognostic-problem-in-condition-based-maintenance-1j06nq8uvb.pdf

Review of prognostic problem in condition-based maintenance

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00181342/document

Framework for a distributed and hybrid prognostic system

The challenge for our paper consists in controlling the performance of the future state of a microgrid with energy produced from renewable energy sources. The added value of this proposal consists in identifying the most used criteria, related to each modeling step, able to lead us to an optimal neural network forecasting tool. In order to underline the effects of users’ decision making on the forecasting performance, in the second part of the article, two Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models are tested and evaluated. Several scenarios are built by changing: the prediction time horizon (Scenario 1) and the shape of membership functions (Scenario 2).

/pdf/adaptive-neuro-fuzzy-inference-systems-as-a-strategy-for-kzl52ucgrk.pdf

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems as a Strategy for Predicting and Controling the Energy Produced from Renewable Sources

Matlab Application of Kohonen Self-organizing Map to Classify Consumers’ Load Profiles

Nowadays, there are huge ranges of energy market participants. Commercial success of this area actor depends on the ability to submit competitive predictions relative to energy balance trends Thus, it seems convenient to “anticipate” this parameter evolution in time in order to act consequently and resort to protective actions. In this context, this paper proposes a tool for energy balance prediction based on ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System). This neuro- fuzzy predictor is modified in order to obtain an accurate forecasting for medium term. The solutions are illustrated on a real application and take into account the known “future”: the programmed actions.

/pdf/medium-term-load-forecasting-using-anfis-predictor-3i15q742pf.pdf

Florin Dragomir

Papers

Review of prognostic problem in condition-based maintenance

Framework for a distributed and hybrid prognostic system

Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems as a Strategy for Predicting and Controling the Energy Produced from Renewable Sources

Matlab Application of Kohonen Self-organizing Map to Classify Consumers’ Load Profiles

Medium term load forecasting using ANFIS predictor