A multi-criteria approach for an integrated land-cover-based assessment of ecosystem services provision to support landscape planning

Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries

The analysis of the relationships between people and nature is complex, because it involves bringing together insights from a range of disciplines, and, when stakeholders are involved, the perspectives and values of different interest groups. Although it has been suggested that analytical-deliberate approaches may be useful in dealing with some of this complexity, the development of methods is still at an early stage. This is particularly so in relation to debates around the concept of ecosystem services where biophysical, social and economic insights need to be integrated in ways that can be accessed by decision-makers. The paper draws on case studies to examine the use of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) as a means of implementing analytical-deliberative approaches in relation to mapping ecosystem services and modelling scenario outcomes. It also explores their use as a tool for representing individual and group values. It is argued that when linked with GIS techniques BBNs allow mapping and modelling approaches rapidly to be developed and tested in an efficient and transparent way, and that they are a valuable scenario-building tool. The case-study materials also show that BBNs can support multicriteria forms of deliberative analysis that can be used to capture stakeholder opinions so that different perspec- tives can be compared and shared social values identified.

Exploring ecosystem service issues across diverse knowledge domains using Bayesian Belief Networks

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in
addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated
assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work
was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and
qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante
impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario
employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and
(2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that
European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the
context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the
implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods,
i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of
using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of
all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular
interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data
with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe
can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used
complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives.

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Ex ante impact assessment of policies affecting land use, Part B: application of the analytical framework

Contemporary policy making calls for scientific support to anticipate the possible consequences of optional policy decisions on sustainable development. This paper presents an analytical framework for ex ante assessment of economic, social, and environmental impacts of policy driven land use changes that can be used as an aid to policy making. The tasks were to (1) link policy scenarios with land use change simulations, (2) link land use change simulations with environmental, social, and economic impacts through indicators, and (3) valuate the impacts in the context of sustainable development. The outcome was a basis for dialogue at the science-policy interface in the process of developing new policies on the European level that impact on land and land use. The analytical approach provides a logical thread for ex ante impact assessment within the context of sustainable development, land use multifunctionality, and land use change and it provides a thorough discussion of achievements and open challenges related to the framework. It concludes with considerations on the potential for using evidence based ex ante assessments in the process of policy development. The paper is complemented by a B-paper providing exemplary results from two applications of the framework: a financial reform scenario of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, and a bioenergy policy scenario for the case of Poland (Helming et al. 2011).

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Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part A: Analytical Framework

This paper presents the results of a sustainability impact assessment (SIA) of policy induced land use changes in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The regional problems include rapid expansions of urban areas, due to high population pressure, and the conversion of paddy fields and forests into settlements. The objective of this study was to assess the impacts of two land use policies on social, economic, and environmental Land Use Functions (LUFs) in Yogyakarta. The following scenarios were developed for the SIA: a forest protection scenario (S1), a paddy field conservation scenario (S2), and a counterfactual (no policy) scenario of 'Business As Usual' (BAU). The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was applied to conduct an expert-based impact

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Frieta Damayanti

Papers

Assessing the Impact of Land Use Policy on Urban-Rural Sustainability Using the FoPIA Approach in Yogyakarta, Indonesia