This study provides an overview of the drought situation in Northeast Brazil for the past, present, and future. Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard owing to their large scale and long-lasting nature. They are recurrent in the region and while some measures have been taken by the governments to mitigate their impacts, there is still a perception that residents, mainly in rural areas, are not yet adapted to these hazards. The drought affecting the Northeast from 2012 to 2015, however, has had an intensity and impact not seen in several decades and has already destroyed large swaths of cropland, affecting hundreds of cities and towns across the region, and leaving ranchers struggling to feed and water cattle. Future climate projections for the area show large temperature increases and rainfall reductions, which, together with a tendency for longer periods with consecutive dry days, suggest the occurrence of more frequent/intense dry spells and droughts and a tendency toward aridification in the region. All these conditions lead to an increase in evaporation from reservoirs and lakes, affecting irrigation and agriculture as well as key water uses including hydropower and industry, and thus, the welfare of the residents. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting provides efficient means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, identifying vulnerabilities, and allowing for better adaptation measures not only for medium- and long-term climate change but also for extremes of the interannual climate variability, particularly droughts.

Drought in Northeast Brazil—past, present, and future

This study discusses the climatological aspects of the most severe drought ever recorded in the semiarid region Northeast Brazil. Droughts are recurrent in the region and while El Nino has driven some of these events others are more dependent on the tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature fields. The drought affecting this region during the last 5 years shows an intensity and impact not seen in several decades in the regional economy and society. The analysis of this event using drought indicators as well as meteorological fields shows that since the middle 1990s to 2016, 16 out of 25 years experienced rainfall below normal. This suggests that the recent drought may have in fact started in the middle-late 1990s, with the intense droughts of 1993 and 1998, and then the sequence of dry years (interrupted by relatively wet years in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011) after that may have affected the levels of reservoirs in the region, leading to a real water crisis that was magnified by the negative rainfall anomalies since 2010.

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Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region.

Drought is the natural disaster that impacts the greatest number of people and produces the most significant economic losses. This work presents a quantitative assessment of drought events occurred in the Semiarid region of Northeast Brazil during 1981–2016. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of drought intensity for the last 36 years, analysing their severity, frequency and duration, considering hydro-meteorological and agricultural aspects. To evaluate these two aspects, the 12-month standardized precipitation index and the vegetation health index were considered to investigate drought characteristics. The definition of drought event for both these indices was performed regarding start and end month. In this context, drought duration is considered equal to the number of months of event, drought frequency is the number of events per time period and the drought severity is the absolute value of integral area below zero. Results show that the most severe and prolonged drought occurred in 2011–2016. In a clear contrast to previous droughts in past decades, during these last 5-years period drought were more frequent, severe and affected a larger area with significant impacts for population, as well as economical activities.

Frequency, duration and severity of drought in the Semiarid Northeast Brazil region.

Use of remote sensing indicators to assess effects of drought and human-induced land degradation on ecosystem health in Northeastern Brazil

Desertification trends in the Northeast of Brazil over the period 2000-2016

. Approximately 57% of the Brazilian northeast region is recognized as semi-arid land and has been undergoing intense land use processes in the last decades, which have resulted in severe degradation of its natural assets. Therefore, the objective of this study is to identify the areas that are susceptible to desertification in this region based on the 11 influencing factors of desertification (pedology, geology, geomorphology, topography data, land use and land cover change, aridity index, livestock density, rural population density, fire hot spot density, human development index, conservation units) which were simulated for two different periods: 2000 and 2010. Each indicator were assigned weights ranging from 1 to 2 (representing the best and the worst conditions), representing classes indicating low, moderate and high susceptibility to desertification. The results indicate that 94% of the Brazilian northeast region is under moderate to high susceptibility to desertification. The areas that were susceptible to soil desertification increased by approximately 4.6% (83.4 km2) from 2000 to 2010. The implementation of the methodology provides the technical basis for decision-making that involves mitigating actions and the first comprehensive national assessment within the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification framework.

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Identifying areas susceptible to desertification in the Brazilian northeast

Intravenous self-administration (IVSA) is a behavioral method of voluntary drug intake in animal models which is used to study the reinforcing effects of drugs of abuse. It is considered to have greater face validity in the study of substance use and abuse than other assays, and thus, allows for valuable insight into the neurobiological basis of addiction, and the development of substance abuse disorders. The technique typically involves surgically inserting a catheter into the jugular vein, which enables the infusion of drug solution after the performance of a desired operant behavior. Two nose- poke ports or levers are offered as manipulanda and are randomly assigned as active (reinforced) or inactive (non-reinforced) to allow for the examination of discrimination in the assessment of learning. Here, we describe our methodological approach to this assay in a mouse model, including construction and surgical implantation of a jugular vein catheter, set up of operant chambers, and considerations during each phase of the operant task.

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G. F. Valles

Papers

Identifying areas susceptible to desertification in the Brazilian northeast

Jugular Vein Catheter Design and Cocaine Self-Administration Using Mice: A Comprehensive Method