A simple supply and demand framework is used to analyze changes in the U. S. wage structure from 1963 to 1987. Rapid secular growth in the demand for more-educated workers, "more-skilled" workers, and females appears to be the driving force behind observed changes in the wage structure. Measured changes in the allocation of labor between industries and occupations strongly favored college graduates and females throughout the period. Movements in the college wage premium over this period appear to be strongly related to fluctuations in the rate of growth of the supply of college graduates.

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Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors

Policy makers view public sector-sponsored employment and training programs and other active labor market policies as tools for integrating the unemployed and economically disadvantaged into the work force. Few public sector programs have received such intensive scrutiny, and been subjected to so many different evaluation strategies. This chapter examines the impacts of active labor market policies, such as job training, job search assistance, and job subsidies, and the methods used to evaluate their effectiveness. Previous evaluations of policies in OECD countries indicate that these programs usually have at best a modest impact on participants’ labor market prospects. But at the same time, they also indicate that there is considerable heterogeneity in the impact of these programs. For some groups, a compelling case can be made that these policies generate high rates of return, while for other groups these policies have had no impact and may have been harmful. Our discussion of the methods used to evaluate these policies has more general interest. We believe that the same issues arise generally in the social sciences and are no easier to address elsewhere. As a result, a major focus of this chapter is on the methodological lessons learned from evaluating these programs. One of the most important of these lessons is that there is no inherent method of choice for conducting program evaluations. The choice between experimental and non-experimental methods or among alternative econometric estimators should be guided by the underlying economic models, the available data, and the questions being addressed. Too much emphasis has been placed on formulating alternative econometric methods for correcting for selection bias and too little given to the quality of the underlying data. Although it is expensive, obtaining better data is the only way to solve the evaluation problem in a convincing way. However, better data are not synonymous with social experiments. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs

N RECENT YEARS, public and professional interest in schools has been heightened by a spate of reports, many of them critical of current school policy.' These policy documents have added to persistent and long-standing concerns about the cost, effectiveness, and fairness of the current school structure, and have made schooling once again a serious public issue. As in the past, however, any renewed interest in education is likely to be short-lived, doomed to dissipate as frustration over the inability of policy to improve school practice sets in. This frustration about school policy relates directly to knowledge about the educational production process and in turn to underlying research on schools. Although the educational process has been extensively researched, clear policy prescriptions flowing from this research have been difficult to derive.2 There exists, however, a consistency to the research findings that does have an immediate application to school policy: Schools differ dramatically in "quality,"

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2725865.pdf

The Economics of Schooling: Production and Efficiency in Public Schools.

This paper presents a semiparametric procedure to analyze the effects of institutional and labor market factors on recent changes in the U.S. distribution of wages. The effects of these factors are estimated by applying kernel density methods to appropriately weighted samples. The procedure provides a visually clear representation of where in the density of wages these various factors exert the greatest impact. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we find, as in previous research, that de-unionization and supply and demand shocks were important factors in explaining the rise in wage inequality from 1979 to 1988. We find also compelling visual and quantitative evidence that the decline in the real value of the minimum wage explains a substantial proportion of this increase in wage inequality, particularly for women. We conclude that labor market institutions are as important as supply and demand considerations in explaining changes in the U.S. distribution of wages from 1979 to 1988.

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Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: a Semiparametric Approach.

This essay discusses the effect of technical change on wage inequality. I argue that the behavior of wages and returns to schooling indicates that technical change has been skill-biased during the past sixty years. Furthermore, the recent increase in inequality is most likely due to an acceleration in skill bias. In contrast to twentieth century developments, most technical change during the nineteenth century appears to be skill-replacing. I suggest that this is because the increased supply of unskilled workers in the English cities made the introduction of these technologies profitable. On the other hand, the twentieth-century has been characterized by skill-biased technical change because the rapid increase in the supply of skilled workers has induced the development of skill-complementary technologies. The recent acceleration in skill bias is in turn likely to have been a response to the acceleration in the supply of skills during the past several decades.

Technical Change, Inequality, and the Labor Market

Between 1979 and 1987 there were three significant changes in the wage structure in the United States. the pecuniary returns to schooling increased by about a third; the wages of older relative to younger workers with relatively low education increased to some extent; and the wages of women relative to men rose by almost ten percent. It is important for policy purposes to know why these changes occurred and whether they are temporary or permanent. The paper investigates several alternative explanations of these wage structure phenomena, including the most popular ones that their principal causes were shifts in the structure of product demand, skilled-labor saving technological change, and changes in the incidence and level of rents received by lower skilled workers. our reading of the evidence suggests that the major cause of the dramatic movements in the wage structure during the 1980's may have been some combination of changes in both production technology and the average relative nonobserved quality of different labor groups.

Changes in the Structure of Wages During the 1980'S: an Evaluation of Alternative Explanations

During the 1980's, a period in which the average level of real wage rates was roughly stagnant, there were large changes in the structure of relative wages, most notably a huge increase in the relative wages of highly educated workers. This paper attempts to assess the power of several alternative explanations of the observed relative wage changes in the context of a theoretical framework that nests all of these explanations. Our conclusion is that their major cause was a shift in the skill structure of labor demand brought about by biased technological change.

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Changes in the structure of wages in the 1980's: an evaluation of alternative explanations.

The purpose of this paper is to examine certain received theories of the firm, trade union behavior, and bargaining in order to derive testable implications concerning the conditions under which labor disputes are more likely to occur. There are at least three reasons why an investigation of industrial strike activity seems fruitful. First, it might be argued that, because of their relatively frequent disruption of key sectors of the economy, work stoppages are the most important public policy issue raised by the existence of trade unions. It would therefore be useful to know whether, as Hicks thought, " . . . the majority of actual strikes are doubtless the result of faulty negotiation" [18, p. 146] or whether they are an inevitable part of the functioning of an institutionalized market economy. Although it has long been known that the level of strike activity follows the business cycle [23] [20] [29], this leaves open the questions of the behavioral relations involved and their stability over time. Second, data on industrial disputes provide a potentially rich source of material for testing the implications of bargaining theories which purport to explain the outcome of labor-management negotiations.' Yet little work seems to have been done to date on the application of bargaining theoretic models to nonexperimeiltal data. A third reason for undertaking a study of this problem stems from the continuing interest in the effect of unions upon both the relative wage structure and the rate of change of aggregate money wages. Most union "power" is derived from the threat of the strike, and, accordingly, we agree with Charles Holt's recent suggestion that ". . . the theory and analysis of industrial disputes may belp to clarify the role that unions play in the determination of wages" [19, p. 50].

Bargaining theory trade unions, & industorial strike activity

The authors find high but diminishing marginal returns to investment in expenditures per pupil per year The study suggests the desirability of increased educational quality in school districts with lower per pupil expenditures so as to equalize the returns to years and annual expenditure per student (Necessarily, there should be optimization in the way inputs are combined as the school systems move to new output levels-consolidation being a pertinent example) Since expenditure per student also affects years of schooling attained, a policy of improving the relative quality of school systems in poverty areas may partially offset inherited economic disadvantages

George E. Johnson

Papers

Changes in the Structure of Wages During the 1980'S: an Evaluation of Alternative Explanations

Changes in the structure of wages in the 1980's: an evaluation of alternative explanations.

Bargaining theory trade unions, & industorial strike activity

Social Returns to Quantity and Quality of Schooling

The earnings and promotion of women faculty