http://dklevine.com/archive/refs41401.pdf

THE EQUITY PREMIUM A Puzzle

Much experimental evidence indicates that choice depends on the status quo or reference level: changes of reference point often lead to reversals of preference. We present a reference-dependent theory of consumer choice, which explains such effects by a deformation of indifference curves about the reference point. The central assumption of the theory is that losses and disadvantages have greater impact on preferences than gains and advantages. Implications of loss aversion for economic behavior are considered. The standard models of decision making assume that preferences do not depend on current assets. This assumption greatly simplifies the analysis of individual choice and the prediction of trades: indifference curves are drawn without reference to current holdings, and the Coase theorem asserts that, except for transaction costs, initial entitlements do not affect final allocations. The facts of the matter are more complex. There is substantial evidence that initial entitlements do matter and that the rate of exchange between goods can be quite different depending on which is acquired and which is given up, even in the absence of transaction costs or income effects. In accord with a psychological analysis of value, reference levels play a large role in determining preferences. In the present paper we review the evidence for this proposition and offer a theory that generalizes the standard model by introducing a reference state. The present analysis of riskless choice extends our treatment of choice under uncertainty [Kahneman and Tversky, 1979, 1984; Tversky and Kahneman, 1991], in which the outcomes of risky prospects are evaluated by a value function that has three essential characteristics. Reference dependence: the carriers of value are gains and losses defined relative to a reference point. Loss aversion: the function is steeper in the negative than in the positive domain; losses loom larger than corresponding gains. Diminishing sensitivity: the marginal value of both gains and losses decreases with their

/pdf/loss-aversion-in-riskless-choice-a-reference-dependent-model-4af6fwvxjx.pdf

Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model

THE SPHERE of model financial economics encompasses finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both permeable and flexible. The complex interactions of time and uncertainty guarantee intellectual challenge and intrinsic excitement to the study of financial economics. Indeed, the mathematics of the subject contain some of the most interesting applications of probability and optimization theory. But for all its mathematical refinement, the research has nevertheless had a direct and significant influence on practice. ’ It was not always thus. Thirty years ago, finance theory was little more than a collection of anecdotes, rules of thumb, and manipulations of accounting data with an almost exclusive focus on corporate financial management. There is no need in this meeting of the guild to recount the subsequent evolution from this conceptual potpourri to a rigorous economic theory subjected to systematic empirical examination? Nor is there a need on this occasion to document the wide-ranging impact of the research on finance practice.2 I simply note that the conjoining of intrinsic intellectual interest with extrinsic application is a prevailing theme of research in financial economics. The later stages of this successful evolution have however been marked by a substantial accumulation of empirical anomalies; discoveries of theoretical inconsistencies; and a well-founded concern about the statistical power of many of the test methodologies.3 Finance thus finds itself today in the seemingly-paradoxical position of having more questions and empirical puzzles than at the start of its

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04565.x

A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information

https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/finance/docs/WP/2000/pdf/wpa00041.pdf

Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects $

SEQUELS ARE RARELY AS good as the originals, so I approach this review of the market efficiency literature with trepidation. The task is thornier than it was 20 years ago, when work on efficiency was rather new. The literature is now so large that a full review is impossible, and is not attempted here. Instead, I discuss the work that I find most interesting, and I offer my views on what we have learned from the research on market efficiency.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1991.tb04636.x

Efficient Capital Markets: II

The equity premium puzzle, identified by Mehra and Prescott, states that, for plausible values of the risk aversion coefficient, the difference of the expected rate of return on the stock market and the riskless rate of interest is too large, given the observed small variance of the growth rate in per capita consumption. The puzzle is resolved in the context of an economy with rational expectations once the time separability of von Neumann-Morgenstern preferences is relaxed to allow for adjacent complementarity in consumption, a property known as habit persistence. Essentially habit persistence drives a wedge between the relative risk aversion of the representative agent and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption.

/pdf/habit-formation-a-resolution-of-the-equity-premium-puzzle-7y51ioyohe.pdf

Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle

The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence: Discussion

Empirical difficulties encountered by representative-consumer models are resolved in an economy with heterogeneity in the form of uninsurable, persistent, and heteroscedastic labor income shocks. Given the joint process of arbitrage-free asset prices, dividends, and aggregate income, satisfying a certain joint restriction, it is shown that this process is supported in the equilibrium of an economy with judiciously modeled income heterogeneity. The Euler equations of consumption in a representative-agent economy are replaced by a set of Euler equations that depend not only on the per capita consumption growth but also on the cross-sectional variance of the individual consumers' consumption growth.

/pdf/asset-pricing-with-heterogeneous-consumers-3z19cmwzsb.pdf

Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers

Handbook of the Economics of Finance

A two-asset, intertemporal portfolio selection model is formulated incorporating proportional transaction costs. The demand for assets is shown to be sensitive to these costs. However, transaction ...

George M. Constantinides

Papers

Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle

The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence: Discussion

Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers

Handbook of the Economics of Finance

Capital Market Equilibrium with Transaction Costs