The talk with present the key results of the IPCC Working Group III 5th assessment report. Concluding four years of intense scientific collaboration by hundreds of authors from around the world, the report responds to the request of the world's governments for a comprehensive, objective and policy neutral assessment of the current scientific knowledge on mitigating climate change. The report has been extensively reviewed by experts and governments to ensure quality and comprehensiveness.

Climate change 2014 - Mitigation of climate change

Since its initial release in 2000, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has become one of the world’s most widely used numerical weather prediction models. Designed to serve both research and operational needs, it has grown to offer a spectrum of options and capabilities for a wide range of applications. In addition, it underlies a number of tailored systems that address Earth system modeling beyond weather. While the WRF Model has a centralized support effort, it has become a truly community model, driven by the developments and contributions of an active worldwide user base. The WRF Model sees significant use for operational forecasting, and its research implementations are pushing the boundaries of finescale atmospheric simulation. Future model directions include developments in physics, exploiting emerging compute technologies, and ever-innovative applications. From its contributions to research, forecasting, educational, and commercial efforts worldwide, the WRF Model has made a s...

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model: Overview, System Efforts, and Future Directions

Scale effects arise due to force ratios which are not identical between a model and its real-world prototype and result in deviations between the up-scaled model and prototype observations. This review article considers mechanical, Froude and Reynolds model–prototype similarities, describes scale effects for typical hydraulic flow phenomena and discusses how scale effects are avoided, compensated or corrected. Four approaches are addressed to obtain model–prototype similarity, to quantify scale effects and to define limiting criteria under which they can be neglected. These are inspectional analysis, dimensional analysis, calibration and scale series, which are applied to landslide generated impulse waves. Tables include both limiting criteria to avoid significant scale effects and typical scales of physical hydraulic engineering models for a wide variety of hydraulic flow phenomena. The article further shows why it is challenging to model sediment transport and distensible structures in a physical hydrau...

Scale effects in physical hydraulic engineering models

Parameterization of the unresolved vertical transport in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is one of the key physics algorithms in atmospheric models. This study attempts to represent the subgrid-scale (SGS) turbulent transport in convective boundary layers (CBLs) at gray-zone resolutions by investigating the effects of grid-size dependency in the vertical heat transport parameterization for CBL simulations. The SGS transport profile is parameterized based on the 2013 conceptual derivation by Shin and Hong. First, nonlocal transport via strong updrafts and local transport via the remaining small-scale eddies are separately calculated. Second, the SGS nonlocal transport is formulated by multiplying a grid-size dependency function with the total nonlocal transport profile fit to the large-eddy simulation (LES) output. Finally, the SGS local transport is formulated by multiplying a grid-size dependency function with the total local transport profile, which is calculated using an eddy-diffusivity for...

/pdf/representation-of-the-subgrid-scale-turbulent-transport-in-1ukttpnd3m.pdf

Representation of the Subgrid-Scale Turbulent Transport in Convective Boundary Layers at Gray-Zone Resolutions

Research activities on inflow turbulence generation methods have been vigorous over the past quarter century, accompanying advances in eddy-resolving computations of spatially developing turbulent flows with direct numerical simulation, large-eddy simulation (LES), and hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes–LES. The weak recycling method, rooted in scaling arguments on the canonical incompressible boundary layer, has been applied to supersonic boundary layer, rough surface boundary layer, and microscale urban canopy LES coupled with mesoscale numerical weather forecasting. Synthetic methods, originating from analytical approximation to homogeneous isotropic turbulence, have branched out into several robust methods, including the synthetic random Fourier method, synthetic digital filtering method, synthetic coherent eddy method, and synthetic volume forcing method. This article reviews major progress in inflow turbulence generation methods with an emphasis on fundamental ideas, key milestones, representati...

Inflow Turbulence Generation Methods

The writers’ experiments on local scour at vertical cylinders placed in a sand bed show that similitude of large-scale turbulence is an important consideration influencing equilibrium depth of local scour. For the range of cylinder diameters used in their experiments, the writers identify a direct trend between equilibrium scour depth (normalized with cylinder diameter) and the intensity and frequency of large-scale turbulence shed from each cylinder; values of normalized scour depth increased when cylinder diameter decreased. The writers offer a scour-depth adjustment factor to account for this trend, which essentially is a scale effect incurred with experiments involving three independent length scales: cylinder diameter, bed-particle diameter, and flow depth. The consequent similitude consideration, or scale effect, has general significance for laboratory studies of local scour associated with hydraulic structures in sediment beds.

Similitude of Large-Scale Turbulence in Experiments on Local Scour at Cylinders

Large-eddy simulation (LES) and laboratory-flume visualizations were used to investigate coherent structures present in the flow field around a circular cylinder located in a scour hole. The bathymetry corresponds to equilibrium scour conditions and is fixed in LES. The flow parameters in the simulation correspond to the experimental conditions in which the approach flow is fully turbulent. Detailed consideration is given to the interaction of the horseshoe vortex (HV) system within the scour hole with the detached shear layers formed from the cylinder, and the near bed turbulence. It is found that the overall structure of the HV system varies considerably in space and time, though a large, relatively stable, primary necklace vortex is present at practically all times inside the scour hole. The simulation captures the presence of bimodal chaotic oscillations inside the HV system, as well as the sharp increase in the resolved turbulent kinetic energy levels and pressure fluctuations reported in prior experimental investigations. High levels of the mean bed shear stress are observed beneath the primary necklace vortex, especially over the region where the bimodal oscillations are strong, as well as beneath the small junction vortex at the base of the cylinder. It is also found that the detachment and advection of patches of vorticity from the downstream part of the legs of the necklace vortices can induce large instantaneous bed shear stress values. When the critical bed shear stress value for sediment entrainment on a flat surface is adjusted for bed slope effects, the LES simulation correctly predicts that the distribution of the mean bed shear stress is consistent with equilibrium scour conditions.

Coherent Structures in the Flow Field around a Circular Cylinder with Scour Hole

[1] River confluences are complex hydrodynamic environments where convergence of incoming flows produces complicated patterns of fluid motion, including the development of large-scale turbulence structures. Accurately simulating confluence hydrodynamics represents a considerable challenge for numerical modeling of river flows. This study uses an eddy-resolving numerical model to simulate the mean flow and large-scale turbulence structure at an asymmetrical river confluence with a concordant bed when the momentum ratio between the two incoming streams is close to 1. Results of the simulation are compared with field data on mean flow and turbulence structure. The simulation shows that the mixing interface is populated by quasi-two-dimensional eddies. Successive eddies have opposing senses of rotation. The mixing layer structure resembles that of a wake behind a bluff body (wake mode). Strong streamwise-oriented vortical (SOV) cells form on both sides of the mixing layer, a finding consistent with patterns inferred from the field data. The predicted mean flow fields show that flow curvature has an important influence on streamwise variation of circulation within the cores of the two primary SOV cells. These SOV cells, along with vortices generated by flow over a submerged block of sediment at one of the banks, strongly influence distributions of the streamwise velocity and turbulent kinetic energy downstream of the junction. Comparison of the eddy-resolving simulation results with predictions from the steady Spalart-Allmaras RANS model shows that the latter fails to predict important features of the measured distributions of streamwise velocity and turbulent kinetic energy because the RANS model underpredicts the strength of the SOV cells. Analysis of instantaneous and mean bed shear stress distributions indicates that the SOV cells enhance bed shear stresses to a greater degree than the quasi-two-dimensional eddies in the mixing interface.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2010WR010018

Structure of turbulent flow at a river confluence with momentum and velocity ratios close to 1: Insight provided by an eddy‐resolving numerical simulation

This paper uses results from detached eddy simulation to reveal the dynamics of large-scale coherent eddies in the flow around a circular pier with an equilibrium scour hole. This is important for the sediment transport because the local scour process is controlled to a large extent by the large-scale coherent structures present in the near-bed region. The present paper investigates the dynamics of these coherent structures, their interactions and their role in entraining sediment in the later stages of the scour process when the horseshoe vortex system is stabilized by the presence of a large scour hole. The pier Reynolds number was 2.06× 105 , outside the range of well-resolved large-eddy simulation (LES). Additionally, scale effects are investigated based on comparison with LES results obtained at a much lower Reynolds number of 16,000 in a previous investigation. The paper provides a detailed study of the dynamics of the main necklace vortices of the horseshoe vortex system, including an investigation...

https://ascelibrary.org/doi/pdf/10.1061/%28ASCE%29HY.1943-7900.0000101

Detached Eddy Simulation Investigation of Turbulence at a Circular Pier with Scour Hole

One-way concurrent nesting within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is examined for conducting large-eddy simulations (LES) nested within mesoscale simulations. Wind speed, spectra, and resolved turbulent stresses and turbulence kinetic energy from the nested LES are compared with data from nonnested simulations using periodic lateral boundary conditions. Six different subfilter-scale (SFS) stress models are evaluated using two different nesting strategies under geostrophically forced flow over both flat and hilly terrain. Neutral and weakly convective conditions are examined. For neutral flow over flat terrain, turbulence appears on the nested LES domains only when using the two dynamic SFS stress models. The addition of small hills and valleys (wavelengths of 2.4 km and maximum slopes of ± 10°) yields small improvements, with all six models producing some turbulence on nested domains. Weak convection (surface heat fluxes of 10 W m−2) further accelerates the development of turbulen...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00064.1

Gokhan Kirkil

Papers

Similitude of Large-Scale Turbulence in Experiments on Local Scour at Cylinders

Coherent Structures in the Flow Field around a Circular Cylinder with Scour Hole

Structure of turbulent flow at a river confluence with momentum and velocity ratios close to 1: Insight provided by an eddy‐resolving numerical simulation

Detached Eddy Simulation Investigation of Turbulence at a Circular Pier with Scour Hole

Resolved Turbulence Characteristics in Large-Eddy Simulations Nested within Mesoscale Simulations Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model