Showing papers by "Guido Lorenzoni published in 2014"

A Theory of Capital Controls as Dynamic Terms-of-Trade Manipulation

Abstract: We develop a theory of capital controls as dynamic terms-of-trade manipulation. We study an infinite-horizon endowment economy with two countries. One country chooses taxes on international capital flows in order to maximize the welfare of its representative agent, while the other country is passive. We show that a country growing faster than the rest of the world has incentives to promote domestic savings by taxing capital inflows or subsidizing capital outflows. Although our theory of capital controls emphasizes interest rate manipulation, the pattern of borrowing and lending, per se, is irrelevant.

Decentralized Trading with Private Information

Abstract: The paper studies how asset prices are determined in a decentralized market with asymmetric information about asset values. We consider an economy in which a large number of agents trade two assets in bilateral meetings. A fraction of the agents has private information about the asset values. We show that, over time, uninformed agents can elicit information from their trading partners by making small offers. This form of experimentation allows the uninformed agents to acquire information as long as there are potential gains from trade in the economy. As a consequence, the economy converges to a Pareto efficient allocation.

International financial crises

Abstract: This chapter surveys recent research on international financial crises. A financial crisis is characterized by a sudden, dramatic outflow of financial resources from an economy with an open capital account. This outflow may be primarily driven by the expectation of a large nominal devaluation, in a situation in which the domestic monetary-fiscal regime appears inconsistent with a fixed exchange rate. Or the outflow may be driven by a reallocation of funds by foreign and domestic investors, due to a changed perception in the country’s growth prospects, to an increase in the risk of domestic default, or to a shift in investors’ attitudes toward risk. Often times, monetary and financial elements are combined. A drop in domestic asset prices and in the real exchange rate can act as powerful amplifiers of the real effects of the crisis, through adverse balance-sheet adjustments. The chapter surveys research that looks both at the monetary and at the financial side of crises, also discussing work that investigates the accumulation of imbalances preceding the crisis and the scope for preventive policies.

Persistent appreciations and overshooting : a normative analysis

Abstract: Most economies experience episodes of persistent real exchange rate appreciations, when the question arises whether there is a need for intervention to protect the export sector. This paper presents a model of irreversible destruction where exchange rate intervention may be justified if the export sector is financially constrained. However, the criterion for intervention is not whether there are bankruptcies or not, but whether these can cause a large exchange rate overshooting once the factors behind the appreciation subside. The optimal policy includes ex-ante and ex-post interventions. Ex-ante (that is, during the appreciation phase) interventions have limited effects if the financial resources in the export sector are relatively abundant. In this case the bulk of the intervention takes place ex-post, and is concentrated in the first period of the depreciation phase. In contrast, if the financial constraint in the export sector is tight, the policy is shifted toward ex-ante intervention and it is optimal to lean against the appreciation.

International Financial Crises

Abstract: This chapter surveys recent research on international financial crises. A financial crisis is characterized by a sudden, dramatic outflow of financial resources from an economy with an open capital account. This outflow may be primarily driven by the expectation of a large nominal devaluation, in a situation in which the domestic monetary-fiscal regime appears inconsistent with a fixed exchange rate. Or the outflow may be driven by a reallocation of funds by foreign and domestic investors, due to a changed perception in the country’s growth prospects, to an increase in the risk of domestic default, or to a shift in investors’ attitudes toward risk. Often times, monetary and financial elements are combined. A drop in domestic asset prices and in the real exchange rate can act as powerful amplifiers of the real effects of the crisis, through adverse balance-sheet adjustments. The chapter surveys research that looks both at the monetary and at the financial side of crises, also discussing work that investigates the accumulation of imbalances preceding the crisis and the scope for preventive policies.

Slow Moving Debt Crises

Abstract: What circumstances or policies leave sovereign borrowers at the mercy of self-fulfilling increases in interest rates? To answer this question, we study the dynamics of debt and interest rates in a model where default is driven by insolvency. Fiscal deficits and surpluses are subject to shocks but influenced by a fiscal policy rule. Whenever possible the government issues debt to meet its current obligations and defaults otherwise. We show that low and high interest rate equilibria may coexist. Higher interest rates, prompted by fears of default, lead to faster debt accumulation, validating default fears. We call such an equilibrium a slow moving crisis, in contrast to rollover crises where investor runs precipitate immediate default. We investigate how the existence of multiple equilibria is affected by the fiscal policy rule, the maturity of debt, and the level of debt.