2 1 The innovative transport systems and the CityMobil project 10 1.1 The research questions 10 2 The state of art in the field of automatic transport systems 12 2.1 Case studies and demand studies for innovative transport systems 12 3 The design and implementation of surveys 14 3.1 Definition of experimental design 14 3.2 Questionnaire design and delivery 16 3.3 First analyses on the collected sample 18 4 Calibration of Logit Multionomial demand models 21 4.1 Methodology 21 4.2 Calibration of the “full” model. 22 4.3 Calibration of the “final” model 24 4.4 The demand analysis through the final Multinomial Logit model 25 5 The analysis of interaction between the demand and socioeconomic attributes 31 5.1 Methodology 31 5.2 Application of Mixed Logit models to the demand 31 5.3 Analysis of the interactions between demand and socioeconomic attributes through Mixed Logit models 32 5.4 Mixed Logit model and interaction between age and the demand for the CTS 38 5.5 Demand analysis with Mixed Logit model 39 6 Final analyses and conclusions 45 6.1 Comparison between the results of the analyses 45 6.2 Conclusions 48 6.3 Answers to the research questions and future developments 52

The European commission

MES (multi-energy systems): An overview of concepts and evaluation models

In this paper we analyze the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), based on a nationwide survey in Germany among (potential) car buyers. For this purpose, we applied a stated preference discrete choice experiment, using a wide range of vehicle alternatives (gasoline/diesel, natural gas, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric, biofuel, hydrogen) and vehicle attributes. By applying both a multinomial logit model and a mixed (error components) logit model, we estimate the attributes’ influence on vehicle choice and calculate consumers’ willingness-to-pay for the improvement of these attributes. Furthermore, in a scenario analysis, we simulate the impact of monetary and non-monetary policy measures on vehicle choice probabilities. We find that the most promising target group for the adoption of all kinds of AFVs is that of younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who, in the case of electric vehicles, also have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and who have a high share of city trips and thus need a small car. Moreover, we find that, depending on the vehicle alternative, environmental awareness, and budget constraints for the next vehicle purchase, households are willing to pay substantial amounts for the improvement of fuel cost, driving range, charging infrastructure, CO2 emissions, vehicle tax exemptions, and free parking or bus lane access. Furthermore, the scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market, whereas electric and hydrogen vehicles will remain unpopular. The market share of the latter is only expected to rise markedly if massive and multiple policy interventions are implemented. Finally, we find evidence that an increase in the fully electric vehicle’s driving range to a level comparable with all other vehicle alternatives has the same impact on its choice probability as would a market-based, multiple measures policy intervention package.

/pdf/consumer-preferences-for-alternative-fuel-vehicles-a-o4fxudgmdi.pdf

Consumer Preferences for Alternative Fuel Vehicles: A Discrete Choice Analysis

This paper analyzes the potential demand for privately used alternative fuel vehicles using German stated preference discrete choice data. By applying a mixed logit model, we find that the most sensitive group for the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles embraces younger, well-educated, and environmentally aware car buyers, who have the possibility to plug-in their car at home, and undertake numerous urban trips. Moreover, many households are willing to pay considerable amounts for greater fuel economy and emission reduction, improved driving range and charging infrastructure, as well as for enjoying vehicle tax exemptions and free parking or bus lane access. The scenario results suggest that conventional vehicles will maintain their dominance in the market. Finally, an increase in the battery electric vehicles’ range to a level comparable with all other vehicles has the same impact as a multiple measures policy intervention package.

/pdf/consumer-preferences-for-alternative-fuel-vehicles-a-qh8301gbno.pdf

Consumer preferences for alternative fuel vehicles: A discrete choice analysis

We provide a model-free test for asymmetric correlations in which stocks move more often with the market when the market goes down than when it goes up, and also provide such tests for asymmetric betas and covariances. When stocks are sorted by size, book-to-market, and momentum, we find strong evidence of asymmetries for both size and momentum portfolios, but no evidence for book-to-market portfolios. Moreover, we evaluate the economic significance of incorporating asymmetries into investment decisions, and find that they can be of substantial economic importance for an investor with a disappointment aversion (DA) preference as described by Ang, Bekaert, and Liu (2005). , Oxford University Press. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Statistical Tests and Economic Evaluation

https://www.fcn.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaagvveu

Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis☆

The EU Directive 2004/8/EC concerning the promotion of cogeneration established principles on how EU member states can support combined heat and power generation (CHP). Up to now the implementation of these principles into national law has not been uniform and led to the adoption of different promotion schemes for CHP across the EU member states. In this paper, we first give an overview on promotion schemes for CHP in various European countries. In a next step, we take two standard CHP technologies, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT-CHP) and engine-CHP, and apply exemplarily four selected support mechanisms used in the four largest European energy markets: feed-in-tariffs in Germany; energy efficiency certificates in Italy; benefits through tax reduction in the UK; and purchase obligations for power from CHP generation in France. For contracting companies it could be of interest to diversify their investment in new CHP facilities regionally over several countries in order to reduce country and regulatory risk. By applying mean-variance-portfolio theory, we derive characteristic return-risk profiles of the selected CHP technologies in different countries. The results show that the returns on CHP investments differ significantly depending on the country, the support scheme and the selected technology studied. While a regional diversification of investments in CCGT-CHP does not contribute to reduce portfolio risks, a diversification of investments in engine-CHP can decrease the risk exposure.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1620450_code1494485.pdf?abstractid=1620450&mirid=1&type=2

The Benefit of Regional Diversification of Cogeneration Investments in Europe: A Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis

The Integrated Energy and Climate Protection Program of the German government includes the political target of doubling the share of combined heat and power generation (CHP) in Germany from currently about 12% to 25% by 2020. In order to reach this goal, a new CHP law was enacted to improve the framework conditions for CHP generation. In this paper, we tackle the political CHP target stipulated by the German government, and aim at identifying which CHP technologies are most likely to be installed in the near future. By applying Mean-Variance Portfolio (MVP) theory, we consider return- and risk-related aspects. In our model, we pay tribute to specific characteristics of CHP generation, such as promotion via feed-in tariffs, additional revenues from heat sales, specific operational features, and specifics concerning allocation of CO2 allowances. The investigation is carried out on the basis of four generic standard CHP technologies currently available on a commercial basis. These technologies are: large coal-fired CHP plants, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT-CHP), engine-CHP and micro-turbine CHP. The portfolio investigation includes a projection of fuel cost and prices for heat and power according to the BMU Leitstudie 2008. As selection criteria for the portfolio performance we take, independently from each other, the net present value (NPV) of investment in CHP and the expected annual portfolio return, and compare the results obtained from both approaches with each other. Irrespective of the chosen selection criteria, the analysis shows that CCGT-CHP and engine-CHP are the most attractive CHP technologies from a return perspective. A diversification of the portfolio with other kinds of CHP technologies can contribute to stabilizing portfolio returns. The application of the results obtained on the further development of CHP generation in Germany leads to the conclusion that a large portion of additional new CHP capacity will probably be built in the industrial sector. We conclude further that the ambitious political target of 25% CHP generation by 2020 is not realistic under the given framework.

Development of Cogeneration in Germany: A Dynamic Portfolio Analysis Based on the New Regulatory Framework

The economics of large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) generation for district heating (DH) applications are strongly affected by the costs and allocation mechanism of CO2 emission allowances In the next period of the European emission trading system (EU ETS), from 2013 onwards, the allocation rules for CHP generation will be modified according to the principles announced in EU Directive 2009/29/EC By means of a discounted cash-flow model we first show that the implementation of the modified allocation mechanism significantly reduces the expected net present value of large-scale CHP plants for DH In a next step, by applying a spread-based real options model we analyze the decision-making problem of an investor who intends to invest in CHP generation Our results provide some evidence that the modified EU ETS principles contribute to reducing the attractiveness of investments in energy-efficient large-scale CHP plants that feed into DH networks In contrast, decentralized small-scale CHP, which is not subject to the EU ETS, may benefit from this development and could, therefore increasingly replace large-scale CHP assets In other words, European legislation is indirectly promoting the further diffusion of decentralized CHP generation units

The Impact of Modified EU ETS Allocation Principles on the Economics of CHP-Based District Heating Networks

https://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/global/show_document.asp?id=aaaaaaaaaagvuyf

Günther Westner

Papers

Investment in new power generation under uncertainty: Benefits of CHP vs. condensing plants in a copula-based analysis☆

The Benefit of Regional Diversification of Cogeneration Investments in Europe: A Mean-Variance Portfolio Analysis

Development of Cogeneration in Germany: A Dynamic Portfolio Analysis Based on the New Regulatory Framework

The Impact of Modified EU ETS Allocation Principles on the Economics of CHP-Based District Heating Networks

The benefit of regional diversification of cogeneration investments in Europe: A mean-variance portfolio analysis