Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

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The global distribution and burden of dengue

Dengue fever, a very old disease, has reemerged in the past 20 years with an expanded geographic distribution of both the viruses and the mosquito vectors, increased epidemic activity, the development of hyperendemicity (the cocirculation of multiple serotypes), and the emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in new geographic regions. In 1998 this mosquito-borne disease is the most important tropical infectious disease after malaria, with an estimated 100 million cases of dengue fever, 500,000 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 25,000 deaths annually. The reasons for this resurgence and emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the waning years of the 20th century are complex and not fully understood, but demographic, societal, and public health infrastructure changes in the past 30 years have contributed greatly. This paper reviews the changing epidemiology of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever by geographic region, the natural history and transmission cycles, clinical diagnosis of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, serologic and virologic laboratory diagnoses, pathogenesis, surveillance, prevention, and control. A major challenge for public health officials in all tropical areas of the world is to devleop and implement sustainable prevention and control programs that will reverse the trend of emergent dengue hemorrhagic fever.

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Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Dengue fever and dengue haemorrhagic fever are important arthropod-borne viral diseases. Each year, there are ∼50 million dengue infections and ∼500,000 individuals are hospitalized with dengue haemorrhagic fever, mainly in Southeast Asia, the Pacific and the Americas. Illness is produced by any of the four dengue virus serotypes. A global strategy aimed at increasing the capacity for surveillance and outbreak response, changing behaviours and reducing the disease burden using integrated vector management in conjunction with early and accurate diagnosis has been advocated. Antiviral drugs and vaccines that are currently under development could also make an important contribution to dengue control in the future.

Dengue: a continuing global threat

Dengue viruses occur as four antigenically related but distinct serotypes transmitted to humans by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. These viruses generally cause a benign syndrome, dengue fever, in the American and African tropics, and a severe syndrome, dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS), in Southeast Asian children. This severe syndrome, which recently has also been identified in children infected with the virus in Puerto Rico, is characterized by increased vascular permeability and abnormal hemostasis. It occurs in infants less than 1 year of age born to dengue-immune mothers and in children 1 year and older who are immune to one serotype of dengue virus and are experiencing infection with a second serotype. Dengue viruses replicate in cells of mononuclear phagocyte lineage, and subneutralizing concentrations of dengue antibody enhance dengue virus infection in these cells. This antibody-dependent enhancement of infection regulates dengue disease in human beings, although disease severity may also be controlled genetically, possibly by permitting and restricting the growth of virus in monocytes. Monoclonal antibodies show heterogeneous distribution of antigenic epitopes on dengue viruses. These epitopes serve to regulate disease: when antibodies to shared antigens partially neutralize heterotypic virus, infection and disease are dampened; enhancing antibodies alone result in heightened disease response. Further knowledge of the structure of dengue genomes should permit rapid advances in understanding the pathogenetic mechanisms of dengue.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/239/4839/476.full.pdf

Pathogenesis of dengue: challenges to molecular biology

This review is an update of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) based on international and Cuban experience. We describe the virus characteristics and risk factors for dengue and DHF, and compare incidence and the case fatality rates in endemic regions (southeast Asia, western Pacific, and the Americas). The clinical picture and the pathogenesis of the severe disease are explained. We also discuss the viral, individual, and environmental factors that determine severe disease. Much more research is necessary to clarify these mechanisms. Also reviewed are methods for viral isolation and the serological, immunohistochemical, and molecular methods applied in the diagnosis of the disease. We describe the status of vaccine development and emphasise that the only alternative that we have today to control the disease is through control of its vector Aedes aegypti.

Dengue: an update

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in the Americas: lessons and challenges.

Dengue diagnosis, advances and challenges

Dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS) is one of the principal causes of hospitalization and death among children in several south-east Asian countries. Also, in the Region of the Americas, there has been an increase in the frequency of dengue fever epidemics and in the number of cases of DHF/DSS. In 1981 an epidemic of dengue haemorrhagic fever occurred in Cuba and this suggests that there is a high risk that such epidemics could recur in the region. The article summarizes the main clinical, virological, and epidemiological data obtained during the outbreak, some of which are reported for the first time.

Dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome: lessons from the Cuban epidemic, 1981.

In Cuba, 2 epidemics of dengue virus occurred: 1 caused by DEN-1 in 1977 and 1 caused by DEN-2 in 1981. The latter was associated with cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). To study viral risk factors for DHF/DSS, a retrospective seroepidemiological survey was conducted in Cerro, a densely populated district in Havana City. The prevalence of plaque reduction neutralizing antibodies to DEN-1 and DEN-2 viruses was measured in 1,295 individuals (children and adults). Of these, 43.7% were immune to DEN-1 virus and 23.6% to DEN-2 virus. Of those individuals who were immune, 26.1% were immune to DEN-1 virus only, 6% to DEN-2 virus only, and 17.6% to both viruses. The DEN-2 virus infection rate in DEN-1 immune individuals was 3.8 times higher than in non-immune individuals. The 5 DHF/DSS cases in the sample had evidence of DEN-1 virus plus DEN-2 virus infections. Three were children and 2 were young adults. No cases were found in individuals infected with DEN-1 virus or DEN-2 virus only. Children infected by DEN-1 virus followed by DEN-2 virus had a high risk of acquiring DHF/DSS. Blacks and whites were equally infected with DEN-1 and DEN-2 viruses.

Gustavo Kourí

Papers

Dengue: an update

Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in the Americas: lessons and challenges.

Dengue diagnosis, advances and challenges

Dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome: lessons from the Cuban epidemic, 1981.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever in Cuba, 1981: a retrospective seroepidemiologic study.