This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 h. The data used is 15-min observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques. Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to 2 h ahead the most important input is the available observations of solar power, while for longer horizons NWPs are the most important input. A root mean square error improvement of around 35% is achieved by the ARX model compared to a proposed reference model.

/pdf/online-short-term-solar-power-forecasting-1ljgpbshkb.pdf

Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

We present an algorithm for the finite element simulation of elastoplastic solids which is capable of robustly and efficiently handling arbitrarily large deformation. In fact, our model remains valid even when large parts of the mesh are inverted. The algorithm is straightforward to implement and can be used with any material constitutive model, and for both volumetric solids and thin shells such as cloth. We also provide a mechanism for controlling plastic deformation, which allows a deformable object to be guided towards a desired final shape without sacrificing realistic behavior. Finally, we present an improved method for rigid body collision handling in the context of mixed explicit/implicit time-stepping.

/pdf/invertible-finite-elements-for-robust-simulation-of-large-uy1u8f7sae.pdf

Invertible finite elements for robust simulation of large deformation

Progress and recent trends in wind energy

http://www.ana.iusiani.ulpgc.es/proyecto0708/pdfnuevo/sustmfinal.pdf

Simultaneous untangling and smoothing of tetrahedral meshes

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Advances in engineering software

A solar radiation numerical model is presented. It is intented to be useful for different purposes like the evaluation of the suitability of possible locations for solar power stations. This model allows the user to evaluate the radiation values in any location easily, and estimate the solar power generation taking into account not only the radiation level, but also the terrain surface conditions considering the cast shadows. The solar radiation model is implemented taking into account the terrain surface using 2-D adaptive meshes of triangles, which are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The selected methodology defines the terrain characteristics with a minimum number of points so that computational cost is reduced for a given accuracy. The model can be used to find the optimal location for obtaining the maximum power generation. For this purpose, the effect of shadows is considered in each time step. Solar radiation is first computed for clear sky conditions, considering the different components of radiation: beam, diffuse and reflected radiation. The real sky radiation is computed daily starting from ∗E-mail address: gustavo@dma.ulpgc.es 2 F. Diaz, J.M. Escobar, E. Rodriguez, R. Montenegro, G. Montero the results of clear sky radiation, in terms of the clear sky index. Maps for clear sky index are obtained from a spatial interpolation of observational data which are available for each day at several points of the zone under consideration. Finally, the solar radiation maps of a month are calculated from the daily results. The model can be also applied in solar radiation forecasting. To do so, a forecasting meteorological model is required. The estimation of daily solar radiation provided by such model is used to adjust the clear sky results and obtain the real sky radiation. Some numerical experiments related to the generation of solar radiation maps in Gran Canaria Island (Canary Islands Spain) are presented.

Solar radiation estimation using a numerical model

Secretaria de Estado de Investigacion, Desarrollo e Innovacion del Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad del Gobierno de Espana; Fondos FEDER.

Solar Radiation Modelling and Forecasting

El uso de enerǵıas renovables es uno de los temas de actualidad en el mundo entero. Muchos gobiernos están impulsando la generación de enerǵıa eléctrica a partir de fuentes renovables, como la del viento. Es previsible, por tanto, que en un futuro cercano sean necesarias nuevas herramientas que ayuden tanto a establecer los lugares de ubicación de parques eólicos, como a optimizar su explotación. Uno de los retos que deberán afrontar las productoras de enerǵıa eólica es la predicción precisa de la potencia que aportarán a la red en un futuro a corto plazo, t́ıpicamente establecido en torno a las 24–48 horas. En este trabajo se propone el uso de los resultados de un moodelo predictivo como campo de viento inicial que alimente la entrada de un modelo de masa consistente para obtener aśı una mejora de la predicción a escala local. Esto, a su vez, podŕıa proporcionar una predicción de producción de potencia eléctrica más precisa a corto plazo. Como aplicación, se presenta una comparación entre algunas predicciones de viento realizadas con el MM5 frente a las obtenidas con la combinación MM5–MMC sobre la isla de Gran Canaria.

https://www.dis.ulpgc.es/contenido/investigacion/trabajos_publicados/PonenciaEduardo.pdf

Uso combinado de modelos de viento a escala local

Incomplete factorization for preconditioning shifted linear systems arising in wind modelling

This chapter is devoted to the introduction of some geographical and meteorological information involved in the numerical modeling of wind fields and solar radiation. First, a brief description of the topographical data given by a Digital Elevation Model and Land Cover databases is provided. In particular, the Information System of Land Cover of Spain (SIOSE) is considered. The study is focused on the roughness length and the displacement height parameters that appear in the logarithmic wind profile, as well as in the albedo related to solar radiation computation. An extended literature review and characterization of both parameters are reported. Next, the concept of atmospheric stability is introduced from the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to the recent revision of Zilitinkevich of the Neutral and Stable Boundary Layers (SBL). The latter considers the effect of the free-flow static stability and baroclinicity on the turbulent transport of momentum and of the Convective Boundary Layers (CBL), more precisely, the scalars in the boundary layer, as well as the model of turbulent entrainment.

/pdf/characterization-of-geographical-and-meteorological-29ccoy25ip.pdf

Gustavo Montero

Papers

Solar radiation estimation using a numerical model

Solar Radiation Modelling and Forecasting

Uso combinado de modelos de viento a escala local

Incomplete factorization for preconditioning shifted linear systems arising in wind modelling

Characterization of Geographical and Meteorological Parameters