https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w5797/w5797.pdf

Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets

Enclosed is a copy of the Board of Governors’ Semiannual Agenda of Regulations for the period August 1, 1980 through February 1, 1981. The Semiannual Agenda provides you with information on those regulatory matters that the Board now has under consideration or anticipates considering over the next six months, and is divided into three parts: (1) regulatory matters that the Board had considered during the previous six months on which final action has been taken; (2) regulatory matters that have been proposed for public comment and that require further Board consideration; and (3) regulatory matters that the Board may consider over the next six months.

Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorkの制定せる財務諸表様式について

Policy rules that are consistent with inflation targeting are examined in a small macroeconomic model of the US economy. We compare the properties and outcomes of explicit "instrument rules" as well as "targeting rules." The latter, which imply implicit instrument rules, may be closer to actual operating procedures of inflation-targeting central banks. We find that inflation forecasts are central for good policy rules under inflation targeting. Some simple instrument and target rules do remarkably well relative to the optimal rule; others, including some that are often used as representing inflation targeting, do less.

/pdf/policy-rules-for-inflation-targeting-1c8d0zoafc.pdf

Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6790/w6790.pdf

Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule

In this Paper we assess the progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. To this end, we review the theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published within the last decade or so. Our reading of the recent literature leads us to conclude that, in contrast with the profession's consensus view of the 1980s, official intervention can be effective, especially through its role as a signal of policy intentions, and especially when it is publicly announced and concerted. We also note, however, an apparent empirical puzzle concerning the secrecy of much intervention and suggest an additional way in which intervention may be effective but which has so far received little attention in the literature, namely through its role in remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market.

/pdf/official-intervention-in-the-foreign-exchange-market-is-it-55wml8h7u7.pdf

Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?

This paper uses cross-section and panel data to examine the determinants of the current account. The empirics find a significant impact of the stage of development and demographic factors in the cross section. Estimating partial-adjustment and error-correction models using panel data, the paper finds a short- and long-run impact of fiscal policy on the current account in the time series. The real exchange rate, the business cycle and the terms of trade are also shown to have short-run effects on the current account, while the stage of development and demographics have longer-run effects.

What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach

Household borrowing has grown considerably in many countries over the past two decades, both in absolute terms and relative to household incomes. Much of the increase can be viewed as a rational response by households to the effects of easing liquidity constraints on households, and lower inflation and borrowing rates. Regardless of whether the increase in debt is sustainable, it has important macroeconomic implications. The household sector will be more sensitive to shocks to interest rates and household incomes, and consumption spending will be more sensitive to changes in expectations of future income. The increased sensitivity will depend crucially on the distribution of debt across the household sector.

/pdf/macroeconomic-implications-of-rising-household-debt-5a0cu7xz2q.pdf

Macroeconomic implications of rising household debt

Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal statistical footing by estimating model-consistent measures of the NAIRU. After imposing plausible restrictions on the variability in the NAIRU we find that the nonlinear model fits the data best. The implications for the macroeconomic policy debate is that policymakers that are unsuccessful in stabilizing the business cycle will induce a higher natural rate of unemployment.

Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States

In recent years, an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy has been adopted in a number of industrial countries. This paper discusses the practical issues that have arisen under the operation of the new framework, and highlights five features of the framework: the assignment of the target, the interaction with other policy goals, the definition of the target, accountability and the role of inflation forecasts. The economic performance of the inflation targeting countries thus far is summarized.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=882276

Inflation Targeting in Practice

Lower interest rates and an easing of liquidity constraints have led to a substantial rise in household debt over the past two decades The greater indebtedness has made the household sector more sensitive to changes in interest rates, income and asset prices This enhanced sensitivity is higher where more households have variable instead of fixed rate mortgages

/pdf/household-debt-and-the-macroeconomy-3kbpvvfyda.pdf

Guy Debelle

Papers

What Determines the Current Account? A Cross-Sectional and Panel Approach

Macroeconomic implications of rising household debt

Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Inflation Targeting in Practice

Household debt and the macroeconomy