Soil organic carbon in active exchange with the atmosphere constitutes approximately two-thirds of the carbon in terrestrial ecosystems1,2. The relatively large size and long residence time of this pool (of the order of 1,200 yr) make it a potentially important sink for carbon released to the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion; however, in many cases, human disturbance has caused a decrease in soil carbon storage3,4. Various recent estimates place the global total of soil carbon between 700 (ref. 2) and 2,946 × 1015 g (ref. 5) with several intermediate estimates: 1,080 (ref. 1), 1,392 (ref. 6), 1,456 (ref. 3), and 2,070 × 1015g (ref. 7). Schlesinger's3 estimate seems to be based on the most extensive data base (∼200 observations, some of which are mean values derived from large studies in particular areas) and is widely cited in carbon cycle studies. In addition to estimating the world soil carbon pool, it is important to establish the relationships between the geographical distribution of soil carbon and climate, vegetation, human development and other factors as a basis for assessing the influence of changes in any of these factors on the global carbon cycle. Our analysis of 2,700 soil profiles, organized on a climate basis using the Holdridge life-zone classification system8, indicates relationships between soil carbon density and climate, a major soil forming factor. Soil carbon density generally increases with increasing precipitation, and there is an increase in soil carbon with decreasing temperature for any particular level of precipitation. When the potential evapotranspiration equals annual precipitation, soil carbon density9 is ∼10 kg m−2, exceptions to this being warm temperate and subtropical soils. Based on recent estimates of the areal extent of major ecosystem complexes9,10 which correspond well with climatic life zones, the global soil organic carbon pool is estimated to be ∼1,395 × 1015g.

Soil carbon pools and world life zones

In order to estimate the production of charcoal and the atmospheric emissions of trace gases volatilized by burning we have estimated the global amounts of biomass which are affected by fires. We have roughly calculated annual gross burning rates ranging between about 5 Pg and 9 Pg (1 Pg = 1015 g) of dry matter (2–4 Pg C). In comparison, about 9–17 Pg of above-ground dry matter (4–8 Pg C) is exposed to fires, indicating a worldwide average burning efficiency of about 50%. The production of dead below-ground dry matter varies between 6–9 Pg per year. We have tentatively indicated the possibility of a large production of elemental carbon (0.5–1.7 Pg C/yr) due to the incomplete combustion of biomass to charcoal. This provides a sink for atmospheric CO2, which would have been particularly important during the past centuries. From meager statistical information and often ill-documented statements in the literature, it is extremely difficult to calculate the net carbon release rates to the atmosphere from the biomass changes which take place, especially in the tropics. All together, we calculate an overall effect lof the biosphere on the atmospheric carbon dioxide budget which may range between the possibilities of a net uptake or a net release of about 2 Pg C/yr. The release of CO2 to the atmosphere by deforestation projects may well be balanced by reforestation and by the production of charcoal. Better information is needed, however, to make these estimates more reliable.

Estimates of gross and net fluxes of carbon between the biosphere and the atmosphere from biomass burning

Changes in land use over the past two centuries have caused a significant release of CO2 to the atmosphere from the terrestrial biota and soils. An analysis of this release is based on amounts of organic carbon within an ecosystem following changes such as harvest of forests; it is also based on rates of changes, such as conversion of forest to agriculture, deduced from agricultural and forestry statistics. A model is used to calculate the net amount of carbon stored or released each year by the biota and soils of 69 regional ecosystems. Some of the changes, such as afforestation, the growth of harvested forests, and buildup of soil organic matter, result in a storage of carbon; others, such as harvest of forests and increase in pasture and agricultural areas, result in a loss of carbon to the atmosphere. According to this analysis, there has been a net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems worldwide since at least 1860. Until 1960, the annual release was greater than release of carbon from fossil fuels. The total net release of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems since 1860 is estimated to have been 180 x 1015 g (a range of estimates is 135-228 x 1015 g). The estimated net release of carbon in 1980 was 1.8-4.7 x 1015 g; for the 22 yr since 1958 the release of C was 38-76 x 1015 g. The ranges reflect the differences among various estimates of forest biomass, soil carbon, and agricultural clear- ing. Improvements in the data on the clearing of tropical forests alone would reduce the range of estimates for 1980 by almost 60%. Estimates of the other major terms in the global carbon budget, the atmospheric increase in C02, the fossil fuel release of C02, and the oceanic uptake of C02, are all subject to uncertainties. The combined errors in these estimates are large enough that the global carbon budget appears balanced if the low estimate for the biotic release of carbon given above is used (1.8 x 1015 g released in 1980) with the higher estimates of oceanic uptake. If higher estimates for biotic release are used, then the carbon budget does not balance, and the estimates of oceanic uptake or of other factors require revision.

Changes in the Carbon Content of Terrestrial Biota and Soils between 1860 and 1980: A Net Release of CO"2 to the Atmosphere

We use a mechanistically based ecosystem simulation model to describe and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) in South America. The Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) is designed to predict major carbon and nitrogen fluxes and pool sizes in terrestrial ecosystems at continental to global scales. Information from intensively studies field sites is used in combination with continental-scale information on climate, soils, and vegetation to estimate NPP in each of 5888 non-wetland, 0.5° latitude °0.5° longitude grid cells in South America, at monthly time steps. Preliminary analyses are presented for the scenario of natural vegetation throughout the continent, as a prelude to evaluating human impacts on terrestrial NPP. The potential annual NPP of South America is estimated to be 12.5 Pg/yr of carbon (26.3 Pg/yr of organic matter) in a non-wetland area of 17.0 ° 106 km2 . More than 50% of this production occurs in the tropical and subtropical evergreen forest region. Six independent model runs, each based on an independently derived set of model parameters, generated mean annual NPP estimates for the tropical evergreen forest region ranging from 900 to 1510 g°m-2 °yr-1 of carbon, with an overall mean of 1170 g°m-2 °yr-1 . Coefficients of variation in estimated annual NPP averaged 20% for any specific location in the evergreen forests, which is probably within the confidence limits of extant NPP measurements. Predicted rates of mean annual NPP in other types of vegetation ranged from 95 g°m-2 °yr-1 in arid shrublands to 930 g°m@ ?yr-1 in savannas, and were within the ranges measured in empirical studies. The spatial distribution of predicted NPP was directly compared with estimates made using the Miami mode of Lieth (1975). Overall, TEM predictions were °10% lower than those of the Miami model, but the two models agreed closely on the spatial patterns of NPP in south America. Unlike previous models, however, TEM estimates NPP monthly, allowing for the evaluation of seasonal phenomena. This is an important step toward integration of ecosystem models with remotely sensed information, global climate models, and atmospheric transport models, all of which are evaluated at comparable spatial and temporal scales. Seasonal patterns of NPP in South America are correlated with moisture availability in most vegetation types, but are strongly influenced by seasonal differences in cloudiness in the tropical evergreen forests. On an annual basis, moisture availability was the factor that was correlated most strongly with annual NPP in South America, but differences were again observed among vegetation types. These results allow for the investigation and analysis of climatic controls over NPP at continental scales, within and among vegetation types, and within years. Further model validation is needed. Nevertheless, the ability to investigate NPP-environment interactions with a high spatial and temporal resolution at continental scales should prove useful if not essential for rigorous analysis of the potential effects of global climate changes on terrestrial ecosystems.

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Potential Net Primary Productivity in South America: Application of a Global Model

Recent assessments of areas of different tropical forest types and their corresponding stand volumes were used to calculate the biomass densities and total biomass of tropical forests. Total biomass was estimated at 205 x 10(9) tons, and weighted biomass densities for undisturbed closed and open broadleaf forests were 176 and 61 tons per hectare, respectively. These values are considerably lower than those previously reported and raise questions about the role of the terrestrial biota in the global carbon budget.

Biomass of Tropical Forests: A New Estimate Based on Forest Volumes

Increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/, risks of climatic change, and impacts from such change are reviewed. Needs for closer scrutiny of changes in organic carbon and in the patterns of the biosphere are explained. The organic carbon pool is considered here as a moderate source of CO/sub 2/, perhaps 1 to 3 Gtons/yr in recent years. The biosphere could become a net sink for CO/sub 2/ if it were managed optimally to minimize the future peak of atmospheric CO/sub 2/ and to maximize storage as well as production rates of organic carbon. A preliminary global computer model explores the implications of tropical and subtropical forest clearing as a nonfossil source of CO/sub 2/ as well as some limits on the biosphere's role as a potential sink. Because of these limits and the oceanic factors of carbonate buffering, slow physical circulation, and limited net sedimentation of carbon, models confirm that 4- to 7-fold increases of CO/sub 2/ could occur if projections of high fossil energy consumption were to materialize. Review of climatic changes does not support beliefs that cooling would become great enough to counteract the mean surface temperature rise of 2 to 9/sup 0/C in 100 years. Changes in climatemore » pattern, temperature, drought, and waterlevel, and in their varied biological effects, would interact to change success of crops, other ecosystems, and many social institutions.« less

H.A. Pfuderer

Papers

Changes in the global carbon cycle and the biosphere