http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/122776/1/gbd2016riskfactorscollaborators2017_3028.pdf

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND 

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

 METHODS 

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

 FINDINGS 

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

 INTERPRETATION 

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

 FUNDING 

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

This document details the procedures and recommendations of the Goals and Metrics Committee of the Strategic Planning Task Force of the American Heart Association, which developed the 2020 Impact Goals for the organization. The committee was charged with defining a new concept, cardiovascular health, and determining the metrics needed to monitor it over time. Ideal cardiovascular health, a concept well supported in the literature, is defined by the presence of both ideal health behaviors (nonsmoking, body mass index 25 kg/m 2 , physical activity at goal levels, and pursuit of a diet consistent with current guideline recommendations) and ideal health factors (untreated total cholesterol 200 mg/dL, untreated blood pressure 120/80 mm Hg, and fasting blood glucose 100 mg/dL). Appropriate levels for children are also provided. With the use of levels that span the entire range of the same metrics, cardiovascular health status for the whole population is defined as poor, intermediate, or ideal. These metrics will be monitored to determine the changing prevalence of cardiovascular health status and define achievement of the Impact Goal. In addition, the committee recommends goals for further reductions in cardiovascular disease and stroke mortality. Thus, the committee recommends the following Impact Goals: "By 2020, to improve the cardiovascular health of all Americans by 20% while reducing deaths from cardiovascular diseases and stroke by 20%." These goals will require new strategic directions for the American Heart Association in its research, clinical, public health, and advocacy programs for cardiovascular health promotion and disease prevention in the next decade and beyond. (Circulation. 2010;121:586-613.)

/pdf/defining-and-setting-national-goals-for-cardiovascular-48yubhx8d6.pdf

Defining and Setting National Goals for Cardiovascular Health Promotion and Disease Reduction The American Heart Association’s Strategic Impact Goal Through 2020 and Beyond

This two-part article provides an overview of the global burden of atherothrombotic cardiovascular disease. Part I initially discusses the epidemiologic transition which has resulted in a decrease in deaths in childhood due to infections, with a concomitant increase in cardiovascular and other chronic diseases; and then provides estimates of the burden of cardiovascular (CV) diseases with specific focus on the developing countries. Next, we summarize key information on risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and indicate that their importance may have been underestimated. Then, we describe overarching factors influencing variations in CVD by ethnicity and region and the influence of urbanization. Part II of this article describes the burden of CV disease by specific region or ethnic group, the risk factors of importance, and possible strategies for prevention.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases Part I: General Considerations, the Epidemiologic Transition, Risk Factors, and Impact of Urbanization

Summary Stroke caused an estimated 5·7 million deaths in 2005, and 87% of these deaths were in low-income and middle-income countries. Without intervention, the number of global deaths is projected to rise to 6·5 million in 2015 and to 7·8 million in 2030. The rising burden of stroke, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, leads us to propose a worldwide goal for stroke: a 2% reduction each year over and above that which may happen as a result of better case management and treatment. The experience of high-income countries indicates that sustained interventions can achieve at least the required 4% annual average decline in stroke mortality for people age 60–69 years. Achieving this goal for stroke would result in 6·4 million fewer deaths from stroke from 2005 to 2015. More of these deaths will be averted in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laneur/PIIS1474-4422(07)70031-5.pdf

Preventing stroke: saving lives around the world

Objective: To study changes in the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease after a five year population-wide intervention programme promoting a healthy lifestyle in a developing country. Design: Cross sectional cluster surveys in 1987 and 1992. Methodology included a two hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance test, measurement of body mass index, waist:hip ratio, basal lipid concentrations, and blood pressure; and a lifestyle questionnaire. Setting: Mauritius, in the Indian Ocean. Subjects: All adults aged 25-74 years residing in geographically defined clusters. Main outcome measures: Age standardised prevalence of categorical disease and risk factor conditions and mean levels and frequency distributions of continuous variables. Results: Response rates were 86.2% (5080/5892) in 1987 and 89.5% (5162/5770) in 1992. Significant decreases were found in the prevalence of hypertension (15.0% to 12.1% in men and 12.4% to 10.9% in women); cigarette smoking (58.2% to 47.2% and 6.9% to 3.7% respectively); and heavy alcohol consumption (38.2% to 14.4% and 2.6% to 0.6% respectively). Moderate leisure physical activity increased from 16.9% to 22.1% in men and from 1.3% to 2.7% in women. Mean population serum total cholesterol concentration fell appreciably from 5.5 mmol/l to 4.7 mmol/l (P Conclusions: Lifestyle intervention projects can be implemented and have positive effects in developing countries. A pronounced improvement in the population lipid profile in Mauritius was probably related to a change in the saturated fat content of a widely used cooking oil.

Changes in population cholesterol concentrations and other cardiovascular risk factor levels after five years of the non-communicable disease intervention programme in Mauritius

Objective : To determine the extent to which reducing the saturated fatty acid composition of a ubiquitously used cooking oil influenced changes in cholesterol concentration in the population during a five year intervention programme in Mauritius. Design : Cross sectional surveys in 1987 and 1992 determined mean total cholesterol concentrations in the population. A random sample of respondents in the 1992 survey completed a nutrition questionnaire that included questions on diet in the previous 24 hours. Setting : Mauritius. Intervention : In 1987 the government of Mauritius changed the composition of the commonly used cooking oil from being mostly palm oil (high in saturated fatty acids) to being wholly soya bean oil (high in unsaturated fatty acids). Subjects : 5080 and 5162 subjects in 1987 and 1992 cross sectional surveys. 2059 subjects aged 30–64 years were randomly selected from the respondents of the 1992 survey to take part in the nutrition survey Main outcome measures : Fatty acid composition of phospholipids in pooled serum samples from men and women from the two surveys; measured and predicted change in serum cholesterol concentration. Results : From 1987 to 1992 total cholesterol concentrations fell significantly by 0.79 mmol/l (P Conclusion : Dietary changes that entailed a reduction in the saturated fat content of a ubiquitous cooking oil explained most of the observed decrease in serum cholesterol concentration over five years in the population of Mauritius. Key messages The saturated fatty acid intake of Mauritians was reduced by modifying the composition of the widely used cooking oil Mean serum cholesterol concentration decreased by 15% after the cooking oil intervention was introduced nationwide Effective, low cost prevention programmes for chronic disease are needed in less industrialised countries. Simple action in dietary policy could be one such strategy

Fall in total cholesterol concentration over five years in association with changes in fatty acid composition of cooking oil in Mauritius: cross sectional survey

OBJECTIVE--To compare the prevalence of electrocardiographic abnormalities and to evaluate the association between these abnormalities and the levels of coronary heart disease among Chinese living in different environments. DESIGN--Cross sectional surveys. SETTING--Beijing, China, and the island of Mauritius. SUBJECTS--Random samples of people aged 35-64 years in Beijing (621 men, 642 women) in 1984 and in Mauritius among Chinese (137 men, 130 women) and non-Chinese (1265 men, 1432 women) in 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Prevalence of electrocardiographic abnormalities suggesting coronary heart disease and of associated risk factors. RESULTS--Prevalence of electrocardiographic abnormalities suggesting coronary heart disease was significantly lower in Beijing (4.0%) than in Mauritian Chinese (24.3%) and Mauritian non-Chinese (24.5%). Mean serum concentrations of total and non-high density lipoprotein cholesterol were lower in Beijing Chinese than in Mauritian Chinese, but smoking and hypertension were slightly more prevalent. Overall, men with electrocardiographic abnormalities had higher risk factor levels than those with a normal electrocardiogram regardless of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS--The prevalence of coronary heart disease and associated risk factors was different among Chinese living in two different environments: in Beijing in the People9s Republic of China and in Mauritius. Chinese, who traditionally have a very low frequency of coronary heart disease, are by no means protected against coronary heart disease and other non-communicable diseases. Therefore, primary prevention of coronary heart disease is a major challenge for preventive medicine in China, as well as in many other developing countries.

https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/304/6842/1596.full.pdf

Electrocardiographic abnormalities and associated factors in Chinese living in Beijing and in Mauritius. The Mauritius Non-Communicable Disease Study Group.

H. Gareeboo

Papers

Changes in population cholesterol concentrations and other cardiovascular risk factor levels after five years of the non-communicable disease intervention programme in Mauritius

Fall in total cholesterol concentration over five years in association with changes in fatty acid composition of cooking oil in Mauritius: cross sectional survey

Electrocardiographic abnormalities and associated factors in Chinese living in Beijing and in Mauritius. The Mauritius Non-Communicable Disease Study Group.