A Very Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between unemployment and crime. Using U.S. state data, we estimate the effect of unemployment on the rates of seven felony offenses. We control extensively for state‐level demographic and economic factors and estimate specifications that include state‐specific time trends, state effects, and year effects. In addition, we use prime defense contracts and a state‐specific measure of exposure to oil shocks as instruments for unemployment rates. We find significantly positive effects of unemployment on property crime rates that are stable across model specifications. Our estimates suggest that a substantial portion of the decline in property crime rates during the 1990s is attributable to the decline in the unemployment rate. The evidence for violent crime is considerably weaker. However, a closer analysis of the violent crime of rape yields some evidence that the employment prospects of males are weakly related to state rape rates.

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Identifying the effect of unemployment on crime

This study analyzes the effects of public R&D policy schemes on the innovation activities of firms in Eastern Germany. The main question in this context is whether public funds stimulate R&D activities or simply crowd out privately financed R&D. Empirically, we investigate the average causal effects of all public R&D schemes in Eastern Germany using a nonparametric matching approach. Compared to the case in which no public financial means are provided, it turns out that firms increase their innovation activities by about four percentage points.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24429/1/dp0110.pdf

The Effects of Public R&D Subsidies on Firms' Innovation Activities: The Case of Eastern Germany

The diffusion of Temporary Work Agency (TWA) jobs originated a harsh policy debate and ambiguous empirical evidence. Results for the US, based on quasi-experimental evidence, suggest that a TWA assignment decreases the probability of finding a stable job, while results for Europe, based on the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA), typically reach opposite conclusions. Using data for two Italian regions, we use a matching estimator to show that TWA assignments can be an effective springboard to permanent employment. We also propose a simulation-based sensitivity analysis, which highlights that only for one of these two regions our results are robust to specific failures of the CIA. We conclude that European studies based on the CIA should not be automatically discarded, but should be put under the scrutiny of a sensitivity analysis like the one we propose.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=905551

From Temporary Help Jobs to Permanent Employment: What Can We Learn from Matching Estimators and their Sensitivity?

The diffusion of temporary work agency (TWA) jobs has led to a harsh policy debate and ambiguous empirical evidence. Results for the USA, based on quasi-experimental evidence, suggest that a TWA assignment decreases the probability of finding a stable job, while results for Europe, based on the conditional independence assumption (CIA), typically reach opposite conclusions. Using data for two Italian regions, we rely on a matching estimator to show that TWA assignments can be an effective springboard to permanent employment. We also propose a simulation-based sensitivity analysis, which highlights that only for one of these two regions are our results robust to specific failures of the CIA. We conclude that European studies based on the CIA should not be automatically discarded, but should be put under the scrutiny of a sensitivity analysis like the one we propose. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

/pdf/from-temporary-help-jobs-to-permanent-employment-what-can-we-1jhfvtedps.pdf

From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: What can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity?

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24268/1/dp1698.pdf

Socio-economic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German States

This study empirically examines the relationship between crime, deterrence and unemployment in Greece. A regional dataset over the period 1991-1998 was collected and analyzed. Our econometric methodology follows the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator applied to dynamic models of panel data. The results show that property crimes are significantly deterred by higher clear-up rates. Also for property crime rates, the results indicate that unemployment increases crime. For violent crimes, however, the effect of the clear-up rate and unemployment are found to be insignificant.

/pdf/crime-deterrence-and-unemployment-in-greece-a-panel-data-1e8yrf1sis.pdf

Crime, Deterrence and Unemployment in Greece: A Panel Data Approach

1 Introduction.- 2 Descriptive Evidence on Magnitude and Development of Crime in Europe.- 2.1 Data Sources and Problems of Measurement.- 2.2 Crime in its Various Dimensions.- 2.3 Crime and Potential Factors of Crime.- 3 Socio-economic Causes, Interactions and Consequences of Crime.- 3.1 Plan of the Survey.- 3.2 Research on Causes and Interactions of Crime.- 3.2.1 Social Disorganisation Theory.- 3.2.2 Lifestyle / Routine Activity Theory.- 3.2.3 Economic Rational Choice Theory.- 3.2.4 Differential Association / Social Learning Theory.- 3.2.5 Social Control Theory.- 3.2.6 Self-control Theory.- 3.2.7 Strain Theory.- 3.2.8 Interactional Theory.- 3.2.9 Wealth, Economic Growth and Economic System.- 3.2.10 Poverty and Inequality.- 3.2.11 Labour Market.- 3.2.12 Social Security.- 3.2.13 Family.- 3.2.14 Peers and Gangs.- 3.2.15 Social Class.- 3.2.16 Mobility and Community Change.- 3.2.17 Age, Gender and Nationality / Race.- 3.2.18 Urbanity.- 3.2.19 Law Enforcement.- 3.2.20 Private Crime Prevention.- 3.2.21 Media.- 3.2.22 Religion / Religiosity.- 3.2.23 Weather.- 3.3 The Impact of Crime on Economic Performance.- 3.3.1 On the Importance of Bi-Directional Crime Models.- 3.3.2 Labour Market Outcomes.- 3.3.3 Location Decisions and Crime.- 3.3.4 Costs of Crime.- 3.3.5 Drug Abuse.- 3.3.6 Corruption and Organised Crime.- 3.4 Summary of Crime Related Indicators.- 4 Development of a Methodological Framework for the Empirical Analysis of Crime.- 4.1 The Methodology.- 4.1.1 Criminometrics.- 4.1.2 A Real-World Example Using Data from EU Member States.- 4.2 The Parameterised Model.- 4.2.1 General Framework.- 4.2.2 Construction of Factors of Regional Criminality and of Leading Criminality Indicators.- 4.2.3 Identification of Criminality Indicators of Economic Performance.- 5 Criminometric Results on Causes and Consequences of Crime in Europe.- 5.1 Data Availability.- 5.1.1 Socio-economic Data.- 5.1.2 Crime Data.- 5.2 Empirical Results Based on National Data.- 5.2.1 Causes of Crime.- 5.2.2 The Impact of Crime on Economic Performance.- 5.3 Empirical Results Based on Regional Data.- 5.3.1 Causes of Crime.- 5.3.2 Consequences of Crime.- 6 Conclusions.- Results Known from the Scientific Literature.- Data and Methods.- Causes of Crime.- Consequences of Crime.- Interpretation of Results, Policy Conclusions.- References.

Crime in Europe: Causes and Consequences

This study empirically examines the relationship among crime, deterrence and unemployment in Greece. A regional dataset over the period 1991–1998 was collected and analysed. Our econometric methodology follows the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator applied to dynamic models of panel data. The results show that property crimes are significantly deterred by higher clear-up rates and that unemployment increases crime. For violent crimes, however, the effect of the clear-up rate and unemployment are found to be generally insignificant. Finally, our results may provide support to policy makers in forecasting criminal activity in the current economic downturn under a wave of harsh austerity measures, budget cuts and increased unemployment.

/pdf/crime-deterrence-and-unemployment-in-greece-a-panel-data-29675ooof5.pdf

Crime, deterrence and unemployment in Greece: A panel data approach

The paper presents an econometric evaluation of the effects of subsidised non-profit temporary employment agencies - a programme of the West German active labour market policy - on individual labour market outcomes. The empirical analysis is based on individual data from files for computer-assisted job brokering in Rhineland-Palatinate. Econometric estimates based on matching methods suggest that the programme generated a statistically significant additional reintegration success of about 13 per centage points. Furthermore within the first four month after leaving the programme, the estimated effect was about half a month additional employment for the participants.

Hannes Spengler

Papers

Socio-economic and demographic factors of crime in Germany: Evidence from panel data of the German States

Crime, Deterrence and Unemployment in Greece: A Panel Data Approach

Crime in Europe: Causes and Consequences

Crime, deterrence and unemployment in Greece: A panel data approach

The Impact of Non-profit Temping Agencies on Individual Labour Market Success in the West German State of Rhineland-Palatinate