Any series of observations ordered along a single dimension, such as time, may be thought of as a time series. The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying the dependence among observations at different points in time. What distinguishes time series analysis from general multivariate analysis is precisely the temporal order imposed on the observations. Many economic variables, such as GNP and its components, price indices, sales, and stock returns are observed over time. In addition to being interested in the contemporaneous relationships among such variables, we are often concerned with relationships between their current and past values, that is, relationships over time.

Time Series Analysis

During the late 1990s, Huang introduced the algorithm called Empirical Mode Decomposition, which is widely used today to recursively decompose a signal into different modes of unknown but separate spectral bands. EMD is known for limitations like sensitivity to noise and sampling. These limitations could only partially be addressed by more mathematical attempts to this decomposition problem, like synchrosqueezing, empirical wavelets or recursive variational decomposition. Here, we propose an entirely non-recursive variational mode decomposition model, where the modes are extracted concurrently. The model looks for an ensemble of modes and their respective center frequencies, such that the modes collectively reproduce the input signal, while each being smooth after demodulation into baseband. In Fourier domain, this corresponds to a narrow-band prior. We show important relations to Wiener filter denoising. Indeed, the proposed method is a generalization of the classic Wiener filter into multiple, adaptive bands. Our model provides a solution to the decomposition problem that is theoretically well founded and still easy to understand. The variational model is efficiently optimized using an alternating direction method of multipliers approach. Preliminary results show attractive performance with respect to existing mode decomposition models. In particular, our proposed model is much more robust to sampling and noise. Finally, we show promising practical decomposition results on a series of artificial and real data.

Variational Mode Decomposition

A voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using ARCH and stochastic volatility models. While most of these studies have documented highly significant in-sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence, traditional ex-post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts. Contrary to this contention, we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications. New methods for improved ex-post interdaily volatility measurements based on high-frequency intradaily data are also discussed.

https://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ589//////AndersenBollerslevIER1998.pdf

Answering the skeptics: yes, standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts*

This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement, modeling and forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and distributions rely on restrictive and complicated parametric multivariate ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility constructed from high-frequency intraday returns, in contrast, permits the use of traditional time series procedures for modeling and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariance matrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next, using continuously recorded observations for the Deutschemark/Dollar and Yen /Dollar spot exchange rates covering more than a decade, we find that forecasts from a simple long-memory Gaussian vector autoregression for the logarithmic daily realized volatitilies perform admirably compared to popular daily ARCH and related models. Moreover, the vector autoregressive volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically grounded assumption of normally distributed standardized returns, gives rise to well-calibrated density forecasts of future returns, and correspondingly accurate quintile estimates. Our results hold promise for practical modeling and forecasting of the large covariance matrices relevant in asset pricing, asset allocation and financial risk management applications.

Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

This paper provides a general framework for integration of high-frequency intraday data into the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting financial asset return volatilities, correlations, and distributions rely on restrictive and complicated parametric multivariate ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility constructed from high-frequency intraday returns, in contrast, permits the use of traditional time series procedures for modeling and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariance matrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next, using continuously recorded observations for the Deutschemark / Dollar and Yen / Dollar spot exchange rates covering more than a decade, we find that forecasts from a simple long-memory Gaussian vector autoregression for the logarithmic daily realized volatilities perform admirably compared to popular daily ARCH and related models. Moreover, the vector autoregressive volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically grounded assumption of normally distributed standardized returns, gives rise to well-calibrated density forecasts of future returns, and correspondingly accurate quantile estimates. Our results hold promise for practical modeling and forecasting of the large covariance matrices relevant in asset pricing, asset allocation and financial risk management applications.

/pdf/modeling-and-forecasting-realized-volatility-2mqo5gygak.pdf

Modeling and forecasting realized volatility

Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

https://econ.duke.edu/~boller/Published_Papers/joe_96b.pdf

Modeling and pricing long- memory in stock market volatility

http://econ.duke.edu/~boller/Published_Papers/joe_99.pdf

Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics

An Arbitrage Free Trilateral Target Zone Model

Theory predicts a certain positive cross-sectional relation between expected return and beta for individual stocks and portfolios. The preferred methodology in the empirical literature involves sorting the available cross-section of stocks into a number portfolios based on characteristics like market capitalization and book-to-market. However, any results obtained in this manner are subject to data snooping biases as well as various general biases in the data that are potentially correlated with the same variables. Moreover, the results do not necessarily carry over to different portfolios formed from the same universe of stocks that investors may hold. This paper proposes a method of randomly resampling portfolios from the population of individual stocks a large number of times to infer general population characteristics about the risk-return relationship, while being subject to few biases. Simulation evidence shows that the proposed procedure performs no worse than cross-sectional regressions based on individual stocks. In contrast to empirical evidence in the literature showing a zero or negative relation between expected return and beta this paper uncovers a positive association stronger than predicted by the CAPM regardless of time period.

Hans Ole Mikkelsen

Papers

Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

Modeling and pricing long- memory in stock market volatility

Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics

An Arbitrage Free Trilateral Target Zone Model

The Relation between Expected Return and Beta: A Random Resampling Approach