Goyal and Welch (2007) argue that the historical average excess stock return forecasts future excess stock returns better than regressions of excess returns on predictor variables. In this article, we show that many predictive regressions beat the historical average return, once weak restrictions are imposed on the signs of coefficients and return forecasts. The out-of-sample explanatory power is small, but nonetheless is economically meaningful for mean-variance investors. Even better results can be obtained by imposing the restrictions of steady-state valuation models, thereby removing the need to estimate the average from a short sample of volatile stock returns. (JEL G10, G11) Towards the end of the last century, academic finance economists came to take seriously the view that aggregate stock returns are predictable. During the 1980s, a number of papers studied valuation ratios, such as the dividend-price ratio, earnings-price ratio, or smoothed earnings-price ratio. Value-oriented investors in the tradition of Graham and Dodd (1934) had always asserted that high valuation ratios are an indication of an undervalued stock market and should predict high subsequent returns, but these ideas did not carry much weight in the academic literature until authors such as Rozeff (1984), Fama and French (1988), and Campbell and Shiller (1988a, 1988b) found that valuation ratios are positively correlated with subsequent returns and that the implied predictability of returns is substantial at longer horizons. Around the same time, several papers pointed out that yields on short- and long-term treasury and corporate bonds are correlated with subsequent stock returns (Fama and Schwert,1977;KeimandStambaugh,1986;Campbell,1987;FamaandFrench, 1989).

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Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?

This paper improves recent methods for large scale image search. State-of-the-art methods build on the bag-of-features image representation. We, first, analyze bag-of-features in the framework of approximate nearest neighbor search. This shows the sub-optimality of such a representation for matching descriptors and leads us to derive a more precise representation based on 1) Hamming embedding (HE) and 2) weak geometric consistency constraints (WGC). HE provides binary signatures that refine the matching based on visual words. WGC filters matching descriptors that are not consistent in terms of angle and scale. HE and WGC are integrated within the inverted file and are efficiently exploited for all images, even in the case of very large datasets. Experiments performed on a dataset of one million of images show a significant improvement due to the binary signature and the weak geometric consistency constraints, as well as their efficiency. Estimation of the full geometric transformation, i.e., a re-ranking step on a short list of images, is complementary to our weak geometric consistency constraints and allows to further improve the accuracy.

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Hamming Embedding and Weak Geometric Consistency for Large Scale Image Search

Aims As part of a larger study to estimate the global burden of disease and injury attributable to alcohol: to evaluate the evidence for a causal impact of average volume of alcohol consumption and pattern of drinking on diseases and injuries; to quantify relationships identified as causal based on published meta-analyses; to separate the impact on mortality versus morbidity where possible; and to assess the impact of the quality of alcohol on burden of disease. Methods Systematic literature reviews were used to identify alcohol-related diseases, birth complications and injuries using standard epidemiological criteria to determine causality. The extent of the risk relations was taken from meta-analyses. Results Evidence of a causal impact of average volume of alcohol consumption was found for the following major diseases: tuberculosis, mouth, nasopharynx, other pharynx and oropharynx cancer, oesophageal cancer, colon and rectum cancer, liver cancer, female breast cancer, diabetes mellitus, alcohol use disorders, unipolar depressive disorders, epilepsy, hypertensive heart disease, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, conduction disorders and other dysrhythmias, lower respiratory infections (pneumonia), cirrhosis of the liver, preterm birth complications and fetal alcohol syndrome. Dose-response relationships could be quantified for all disease categories except for depressive disorders, with the relative risk increasing with increased level of alcohol consumption for most diseases. Both average volume and drinking pattern were linked causally to IHD, fetal alcohol syndrome and unintentional and intentional injuries. For IHD, ischaemic stroke and diabetes mellitus beneficial effects were observed for patterns of light to moderate drinking without heavy drinking occasions (as defined by 60+ g pure alcohol per day). For several disease and injury categories, the effects were stronger on mortality compared to morbidity. There was insufficient evidence to establish whether quality of alcohol had a major impact on disease burden. Conclusions Overall, these findings indicate that alcohol impacts many disease outcomes causally, both chronic and acute, and injuries. In addition, a pattern of heavy episodic drinking increases risk for some disease and all injury outcomes. Future studies need to address a number of methodological issues, especially the differential role of average volume versus drinking pattern, in order to obtain more accurate risk estimates and to understand more clearly the nature of alcohol-disease relationships.

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The relation between different dimensions of alcohol consumption and burden of disease - an overview

The conventional definition of rogue waves in the ocean is that their heights, from crest to trough, are more than about twice the significant wave height, which is the average wave height of the largest one-third of nearby waves. When modeling deep water waves using the nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation, the most likely candidate satisfying this criterion is the so-called Peregrine solution. It is localized in both space and time, thus describing a unique wave event. Until now, experiments specifically designed for observation of breather states in the evolution of deep water waves have never been made in this double limit. In the present work, we present the first experimental results with observations of the Peregrine soliton in a water wave tank.

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Rogue wave observation in a water wave tank.

This document provides a brief overview of the recently published report on the design of the Large Hadron Electron Collider (LHeC), which comprises its physics programme, accelerator physics, technology and main detector concepts. The LHeC exploits and develops challenging, though principally existing, accelerator and detector technologies. This summary is complemented by brief illustrations of some of the highlights of the physics programme, which relies on a vastly extended kinematic range, luminosity and unprecedented precision in deep inelastic scattering. Illustrations are provided regarding high precision QCD, new physics (Higgs, SUSY) and electron-ion physics. The LHeC is designed to run synchronously with the LHC in the twenties and to achieve an integrated luminosity of O(100)\,fb$^{-1}$. It will become the cleanest high resolution microscope of mankind and will substantially extend as well as complement the investigation of the physics of the TeV energy scale, which has been enabled by the LHC.

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A Large Hadron Electron Collider at CERN

인공고관절의 세라믹 볼 헤드의 기계적 안정성 평가를 위한 3 차원 유한요소 해석

Evaluation of Mechanical Stability in Development of Customized Hip Implant

PURPOSE: A peripheral nerve interface system for controlling a prosthetic hand and a method thereof are provided to allow selective detection, analysis, transfer, and stimulation of nerve signals. CONSTITUTION: A peripheral nerve interface system for controlling a prosthetic hand comprises a nerve conduit (100), an artificial organ (300), and a peripheral nerve interface unit (200). The nerve conduit connects to the end of the damaged peripheral nerve of a cut body part. The artificial organ substitutes fro the cut body part. The interface unit electrically connects to the nerve conduit and the artificial organ and restores the function of the damaged peripheral nerve and controls the artificial organ by transmitting and receiving the signal of the damaged peripheral nerve. [Reference numerals] (221) First digital signal processing unit; (223) Wireless electricity receiving unit; (225) First communication unit; (241) Imbedded controller; (243) Wire electricity transmitting unit; (245) Second communication unit; (AA) Nerve regeneration stimulating signal; (BB) Stimulating signal; (CC) Nerve signal; (DD) Actuator control signal; (EE) Sense signal

한성민

Papers

인공고관절의 세라믹 볼 헤드의 기계적 안정성 평가를 위한 3 차원 유한요소 해석

Evaluation of Mechanical Stability in Development of Customized Hip Implant

Peripheral nerve interface system and method for prosthetic hand control