Twitter is a microblogging website where users read and write millions of short messages on a variety of topics every day This study uses the context of the German federal election to investigate whether Twitter is used as a forum for political deliberation and whether online messages on Twitter validly mirror offline political sentiment Using LIWC text analysis software, we conducted a content-analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician Our results show that Twitter is indeed used extensively for political deliberation We find that the mere number of messages mentioning a party reflects the election result Moreover, joint mentions of two parties are in line with real world political ties and coalitions An analysis of the tweets’ political sentiment demonstrates close correspondence to the parties' and politicians’ political positions indicating that the content of Twitter messages plausibly reflects the offline political landscape We discuss the use of microblogging message content as a valid indicator of political sentiment and derive suggestions for further research

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Predicting Elections with Twitter: What 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment

Between Facts and Norms: Contributions to a Discourse Theory of Law and Democracy

As a new communication paradigm, social media has promoted information dissemination in social networks. Previous research has identified several content-related features as well as user and network characteristics that may drive information diffusion. However, little research has focused on the relationship between emotions and information diffusion in a social media setting. In this paper, we examine whether sentiment occurring in social media content is associated with a user's information sharing behavior. We carry out our research in the context of political communication on Twitter. Based on two data sets of more than 165,000 tweets in total, we find that emotionally charged Twitter messages tend to be retweeted more often and more quickly compared to neutral ones. As a practical implication, companies should pay more attention to the analysis of sentiment related to their brands and products in social media communication as well as in designing advertising content that triggers emotions.

Emotions and Information Diffusion in Social Media—Sentiment of Microblogs and Sharing Behavior

This study investigates whether microblogging messages on Twitter validly mirror the political landscape off-line and can be used to predict election results. In the context of the 2009 German federal election, we conducted a sentiment analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is used extensively for political deliberation and that the mere number of party mentions accurately reflects the election result. The tweets' sentiment (e.g., positive and negative emotions associated with a politician) corresponds closely to voters' political preferences. In addition, party sentiment profiles reflect the similarity of political positions between parties. We derive suggestions for further research and discuss the use of microblogging services to aggregate dispersed information.

https://mediatum.ub.tum.de/doc/1308142/file.pdf

Election Forecasts With Twitter: How 140 Characters Reflect the Political Landscape

The growing usage of social media by a wider audience of citizens sharply increases the possibility of investigating the web as a device to explore and track political preferences. In the present paper we apply a method recently proposed by other social scientists to three different scenarios, by analyzing on one side the online popularity of Italian political leaders throughout 2011, and on the other the voting intention of French Internet users in both the 2012 presidential ballot and the subsequent legislative election. While Internet users are not necessarily representative of the whole population of a country’s citizens, our analysis shows a remarkable ability for social media to forecast electoral results, as well as a noteworthy correlation between social media and the results of traditional mass surveys. We also illustrate that the predictive ability of social media analysis strengthens as the number of citizens expressing their opinion online increases, provided that the citizens act consistently...

Every tweet counts? How sentiment analysis of social media can improve our knowledge of citizens’ political preferences with an application to Italy and France

Several theorists have entertained the possibility that the egalitarian nature of Internet-based discussion may facilitate meaningful democratic deliberative discussions amongst citizens. This article provides a preliminary empirical test of these claims by examining the extent to which blogs and blogroll communities act as forums for such deliberations. The analysis uses a dataset derived from a content analysis performed on blogs from three Canadian partisan blogrolls in October 2005. We perform three tests of the deliberative qualities of blog-based discussions: (a) whether discussion is characterized by equality of participation; (b) whether bloggers discuss substantive issues; and (c) whether bloggers engage constructively in discussions with political opponents. We find that this online discussion does exhibit some deliberative characteristics but that this discussion is often characterized by inequality of discussion, a focus on non-substantive issues, and unconstructive engagement between bloggers.

Political Blogs and Blogrolls in Canada

This article examines the potential for Internet discussion boards to be a vehicle for political deliberation through a case study of the BC Votes discussion board during British Columbia’s 2001 provincial election. Research reveals that the board was dominated by a relatively small number of users and that the favourite discussion topics were not issues but how parties and leaders were performing. The authors conclude that the perception of ideological homogeneity in online discussion may be overstated and that the first post in a discussion thread has an important agenda-setting function. They also find that the relative newness of discussion boards may play a role in shaping the nature of discussion there. Resume : Afin d’examiner le potentiel des babillards electroniques comme vehicules de debats politiques, cet article offre une etude de cas sur le babillard BC Votes lors des elections provinciales en Colombie-Britannique en 2001. Les auteurs demontrent que relativement peu d’usagers dominaient le babillard et que les sujets preferes de discussion ne touchaient pas aux enjeux de la campagne electorale, mais plutot a la performance des parties politiques et de leurs leaders. Les auteurs concluent que l’homogeneite ideologique des babillards electroniques n’est peut-etre qu’une perception exageree et que souvent le ton polemique du debat est dicte par le premier message dans un fil de discussion. Les auteurs concluent aussi que le caractere relativement nouveau des babillards reflete sur la specificite de la discussion qui s’y deroule.

Pundits, Ideologues, and the Ranters: The British Columbia Election Online

. The alternative vote (AV) is an increasingly popular proposal for electoral reform, largely due to Australia's success with it. This article considers the experiences of Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia with AV in past provincial elections. AV had little impact on proportionality and voter turnout, but did contribute to significantly higher rates of ballot rejection. AV was associated with an increase in the number of parties competing in elections, but this is more likely due to a changing social structure than electoral system change. AV facilitated coalitions where incentives to cooperate already existed, as in British Columbia, but it did little to encourage or induce coalitions in Alberta and Manitoba. On balance, it differed little from the single member plurality system.Resume. Le vote preferentiel (PV) est une proposition de plus en plus populaire de reforme electorale. Son attrait s'explique en grande partie par son succes en Australie. Cet article etudie les experiences de VP lors d'elections provinciales au Manitoba, en Alberta et en Colombie-Britannique. Le VP a eu peu de repercussions sur la proportionnalite et sur la participation electorale, mais a contribue a augmenter considerablement le nombre de bulletins de vote rejetes. On observe, en association avec le VP, une augmentation du nombre des partis en presence, mais ceci etait vraisemblablement du a l'evolution des structures sociales plus qu'au changement du systeme electoral. Le VP a facilite les coalitions lorsque des raisons de cooperer existaient deja, comme en Colombie-Britannique, mais n'a guere encourage ni provoque de coalitions en Alberta ni au Manitoba. En definitive, la difference avec le systeme majoritaire uninominal a ete negligeable.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/13B4D365AB1F9564BB68D1548C3E975F/S0008423904030227a.pdf/the-political-consequences-of-the-alternative-vote-lessons-from-western-canada.pdf

The Political Consequences of the Alternative Vote: Lessons from Western Canada

. We consider the impact of changing Canadian national party finance laws that banned trade union donations on the relationship between the New Democratic party (NDP) and organized labour. Although the changed laws have required a restructuring of the relationship between the two actors, we find evidence of a continued commitment to co-operation. We conclude that accounts that stress the ideological affinity between the NDP and labour explain the preservation of the relationship better than political economy or rational exchange models.Resume. Nous considerons les changements apportes aux lois canadiennes sur le financement des partis politiques, lois qui ont banni les donations des syndicats, dans la perspective de leur incidence sur la relation entre le Nouveau Parti democratique (NPD) et les syndicats. Malgre le fait que les nouvelles lois ont necessite une restructuration de la relation entre les deux acteurs, nous avons decouvert la presence d'un engagement continu envers la cooperation. Nous concluons que les interpretations qui mettent l'accent sur l'affinite ideologique entre le NPD et les syndicats expliquent mieux le maintien de cette relation que l'economie politique ou les modeles d'echange rationnel.

Solidarity Forever? The NDP, Organized Labour, and the Changing Face of Party Finance in Canada

. Based on an examination of constitutional and other party documents, Canadian political parties have been described as stratarchically organized (Carty, 2002). We identify four models of internal party financial flows that correspond to different models of internal party organization. We then trace the financial flows into and within the four major Canadian political parties from 2004 to 2007 with a view to identifying the model of party organization that these flows indicate. Our evidence in some respects supports Carty's assertion that Canadian parties are stratarchically organized, but it also suggests that changes to the regulatory regime governing political finance have contributed to a centralization of power at the level of the national party and at the expense of candidates and local associations. This centralizing tendency is significant, as it may disrupt the bargain that underlies the stratarchical organization of Canadian parties.Resume. A la lumiere d'une revue des constitutions et de divers autres documents des partis politiques canadiens, ces derniers ont ete decrits comme etant organises de maniere stratarchique (Carty, 2002). Nous degageons quatre modeles de flux monetaires internes des partis qui correspondent a differents modeles d'organisation interne des partis politiques. Nous retracons les entrees de fonds des quatre principaux partis politiques canadiens et leur distribution interne de 2004 a 2007 en vue d'identifier le modele d'organisation de parti qui correspond a ces flux monetaires. Sous certains rapports, nos resultats appuient l'argument de Carty affirmant que les partis canadiens sont organises de maniere stratarchique, mais ils suggerent aussi que les changements apportes au regime regulateur gouvernant le financement politique ont contribue a une centralisation du pouvoir au niveau national des partis et ce aux depens des candidats et des associations locales. Cette tendance centralisatrice est importante, car elle peut rompre le compromis qui sous-tend l'organisation stratarchique des partis politiques canadiens.

Harold J. Jansen

Papers

Political Blogs and Blogrolls in Canada

Pundits, Ideologues, and the Ranters: The British Columbia Election Online

The Political Consequences of the Alternative Vote: Lessons from Western Canada

Solidarity Forever? The NDP, Organized Labour, and the Changing Face of Party Finance in Canada

Stratarchical Party Organization and Party Finance in Canada