Accurate power load forecasting is essential for power grid operation and dispatching. To further improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, this study proposes a new power load forecasting method. Firstly, correlation coefficients of influential variables are calculated for feature selection. Secondly, the form of input data is changed to adjust for autocorrelated errors. Thirdly, data features are extracted by convolutional neural networks (CNN) to construct feature vectors. Finally, the feature vectors are input into long short-term memory (LSTM) network for training to obtain prediction results. Moreover, for solving the problem that network hyperparameters are difficult to set, the simulated annealing particle swarm optimization (SAPSO) algorithm is used to optimize the hyperparameters. Experiments show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed model is higher compared with LSTM, CNN-LSTM, and other models.

Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on SAPSO-CNN-LSTM Model considering Autocorrelated Errors

Currently, developing countries are experiencing a massive shift toward industrialization. Developing countries lack the technical sophistication and infrastructure to encourage low-carbon and sustainable economic growth because of weak public awareness, regulations, and technology. Developing countries must plan the industrialization process for maximum energy efficiency of production, thereby reducing their CO <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sub> emissions significantly by increasing energy efficiency. This paper attempts to review the current pragmatic methods for forecasting the future load demands from minutes to years ahead in developing countries, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P). Our primary focus is to provide an optimal forecasting model selection strategy for potential researchers and forecasters. Based on the strengths and weaknesses of the different models, we will discuss the most suitable methods to tailor them to multiple applications and scenarios of load forecasting. The comparison elements are Forecast horizons, Spatio-temporal resolutions, factors affecting the load, different dimensional reduction techniques, model complexity analysis, and the MAPE for error analysis. From the results, We have found ANN hybridized with meta-heuristic techniques to be superior in most of the analysis cases. ANN’s ability to handle non-linear data, flexibility, and robustness is why. Consumption data aggregated at the national level can capture trends efficiently. Meteorological and calendar features influence short-term forecasting extensively, whereas economic factors influence long-term load patterns. Finally, we have identified the trends and research gaps from the existing literature, presenting relevant technical recommendations for improvement. 

Energy Demand Forecasting and Optimizing Electric Systems for Developing Countries

Higher penetration of renewable and smart home technologies at the residential level challenges grid stability as utility-customer interactions add complexity to power system operations. In response, short-term residential load forecasting has become an increasing area of focus. However, forecasting at the residential level is challenging due to the higher uncertainties involved. Recently deep neural networks have been leveraged to address this issue. This paper investigates the capabilities of a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) and a convolutional neural network-based BiLSTM (CNN-BiLSTM) to provide a day ahead (24 hr.) forecasting at an hourly resolution while minimizing the root mean squared error (RMSE) between the actual and predicted load demand. Using a publicly available dataset consisting of 38 homes, the BiLSTM and CNN-BiLSTM models are trained to forecast the aggregated active power demand for each hour within a 24 hr. span, given the previous 24 hr. load data. The BiLSTM model achieved the lowest RMSE of 1.4842 for the overall daily forecast. In addition, standard LSTM and CNN-LSTM models are trained and compared with the BiLSTM architecture. The RMSE of BiLSTM is 5.60%, 2.85% and 2.60% lower than the LSTM, CNN-LSTM and CNN-BiLSTM models respectively. The source code of this work is available at https://github.com/Varat7v2/STLF-BiLSTM-CNNBiLSTM.git. 

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Short-Term Aggregated Residential Load Forecasting using BiLSTM and CNN-BiLSTM

In this paper, the real-time changes of demand-side response factors are accurately considered. First, CNN is combined with BiLSTM network to extract the spatio-temporal features of load data; then an attention mechanism is introduced to automatically assign the corresponding weights to the hidden layer states of BiLSTM. In the optimization part of the network parameters, the PSO algorithm is combined to obtain better model parameters. Then, considering the average reduction rate of various users under energy efficiency resources and the average load rate under load resources on the original forecast load and the original forecast load, the original load is superimposed with the response load considering demand-side resources to achieve accurate load forecast. Finally, “price-based” time-of-use tariff and “incentive-based” emergency demand response are selected to build a load response model based on the principle of maximizing customer benefits. The results show that demand-side response can reduce the frequency and magnitude of price fluctuations in the wholesale market.

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Research on Electric Load Forecasting and User Benefit Maximization Under Demand-Side Response

In this paper, a Conv-BiLSTM hybrid architecture is proposed to improve building energy consumption reconstruction of a new multi-functional building type. Experiments indicate that using the proposed hybrid architecture results in improved prediction accuracy for two case multi-functional buildings in ultra-short-term to short term energy use modelling, with \(R^2\) score ranging between 0.81 to 0.94. The proposed model architecture comprising the CNN, dropout, bidirectional and dense layer modules superseded the performance of the commonly used baseline deep learning models tested in the investigation, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed architectural structure. The proposed model is satisfactorily applicable to modelling multi-functional building energy consumption.

Energy Consumption Prediction for Multi-functional Buildings Using Convolutional Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term power load forecasting is quite vital in maintaining the balance between power production and power consumption of the power grid. Prediction accuracy not only affects the power grid construction, but also influences the economic development of the power grid. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based on Convolutional Neural Networks and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-BiLSTM) with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and Attention Mechanism (AM). The BiLSTM is good at time series forecasting, and the Attention Mechanism can help the model to focus on the important part of the BiLSTM output. In order to make the forecasting performance of the model as good as possible, the Bayesian Optimization is used to tune the hyperparameters of the model. The input of the model is history load, time slot, and meteorological factors. In order to eliminate the seasonal influence, the data set is divided into four subsets with respect to four seasons. The performance of the proposed model is compared with other forecasting models by MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and \(R^2\) score. The experiment results show that the proposed model fits the actual values best and has the best forecasting performance among the contrast models.

Huifeng Shi

Papers

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on CNN-BiLSTM with Bayesian Optimization and Attention Mechanism