Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene—are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO2] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

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On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Vegetation greenness has been increasing globally since at least 1981, when satellite technology enabled large-scale vegetation monitoring. The greening phenomenon, together with warming, sea-level rise and sea-ice decline, represents highly credible evidence of anthropogenic climate change. In this Review, we examine the detection of the greening signal, its causes and its consequences. Greening is pronounced over intensively farmed or afforested areas, such as in China and India, reflecting human activities. However, strong greening also occurs in biomes with low human footprint, such as the Arctic, where global change drivers play a dominant role. Vegetation models suggest that CO2 fertilization is the main driver of greening on the global scale, with other factors being notable at the regional scale. Modelling indicates that greening could mitigate global warming by increasing the carbon sink on land and altering biogeophysical processes, mainly evaporative cooling. Coupling high temporal and fine spatial resolution remote-sensing observations with ground measurements, increasing sampling in the tropics and Arctic, and modelling Earth systems in more detail will further our insights into the greening of Earth. Vegetation on Earth is increasing, potentially leading to a larger terrestrial carbon sink. In this Review, we discuss the occurrence of this global greening phenomenon, its drivers and how it might impact carbon cycling and land-atmosphere heat and water fluxes.

/pdf/characteristics-drivers-and-feedbacks-of-global-greening-19nigyrijp.pdf

Characteristics, drivers and feedbacks of global greening

INTRODUCTION Reliable estimation of gross primary production (GPP) from landscape to global scales is pivotal to a wide range of ecological research areas, such as carbon-climate feedbacks, and agricultural applications, such as crop yield and drought monitoring. However, measuring GPP at these scales remains a major challenge. Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is a signal emitted directly from the core of photosynthetic machinery. SIF integrates complex plant physiological functions in vivo to reflect photosynthetic dynamics in real time. The advent of satellite SIF observation promises a new era in global photosynthesis research. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) SIF product is a serendipitous but critically complementary by-product of OCO-2’s primary mission target—atmospheric column CO 2 ( X CO 2 ). OCO-2 SIF removes some important roadblocks that prevent wide and in-depth applications of satellite SIF data sets and offers new opportunities for studying the SIF-GPP relationship and vegetation functional gradients at different spatiotemporal scales. RATIONALE Compared with earlier satellite missions with SIF capability, the OCO-2 SIF product has substantially improved spatial resolution, data acquisition, and retrieval precision. These improvements allow satellite SIF data to be validated, for the first time, directly against ground and airborne measurements and also used to investigate the SIF-GPP relationship and terrestrial ecosystem functional dynamics with considerably better spatiotemporal credibility. RESULTS Coordinated airborne measurements of SIF with the Chlorophyll Fluorescence Imaging Spectrometer (CFIS) were used to validate OCO-2 retrievals. The validation shows close agreement between OCO-2 and CFIS SIF, with a regression slope of 1.02 and R 2 of 0.71. Landscape gradients in SIF emission, corresponding to differences in vegetation types, were clearly delineated by OCO-2, a capability that was lacking in previous satellite missions. The SIF-GPP relationships at eddy covariance flux sites in the vicinity of OCO-2 orbital tracks were found to be more consistent across biomes than previously suggested. Finally, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on OCO-2 SIF and available GPP products show highly consistent spatiotemporal correspondence in their leading EOF modes across the globe, suggesting that SIF and GPP are governed by similar dynamics and controlled by similar environmental and biological conditions. CONCLUSION OCO-2 represents a major advance in satellite SIF remote sensing. Our analyses suggest that SIF is a powerful proxy for GPP at multiple spatiotemporal scales and that high-quality satellite SIF is of central importance to studying terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle. Although the possibility of a universal SIF-GPP relationship across different biome types cannot be dismissed, in-depth process-based studies are needed to unravel the true nature of covariations between SIF and GPP. Of critical importance in such efforts are the potential coordinated dynamics between the light-use efficiencies of CO 2 assimilation and fluorescence emission in response to changes in climate and vegetation characteristics. Eventual synergistic uses of SIF with atmospheric CO 2 enabled by OCO-2 will lead to more reliable estimates of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks—when, where, why, and how carbon is exchanged between land and atmosphere—as well as a deeper understanding of carbon-climate feedbacks.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/358/6360/eaam5747.full.pdf

OCO-2 advances photosynthesis observation from space via solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence

Autumn remains a relatively neglected season in climate change research in temperate and arctic ecosystems. This neglect occurs despite the importance of autumn events, including leaf senescence, fruit ripening, bird and insect migration, and induction of hibernation and diapause. Changes in autumn phenology alter the reproductive capacity of individuals, exacerbate invasions, allow pathogen amplification and higher disease-transmission rates, reshuffle natural enemy‐prey dynamics, shift the ecological dynamics among interacting species, and affect the net productivity of ecosystems. We synthesize some of our existing understanding of autumn phenology and identify five areas ripe for future climate change research. We provide recommendations to address common pitfalls in autumnal research as well as to support the conservation and management of vulnerable ecosystems and taxa.

http://www.concordmuseum.org/assets/Autumn,%20the%20neglected%20season%20in%20climate%20change%20research.pdf

I. Sue Wing

Papers

Net Carbon Uptake Has Increased through Warming-Induced Changes in Temperate Forest Phenology