Short-term earthquake prediction: Current status of seismo-electromagnetics

In the absence of drilling, surface-based geophysical methods are necessary to observe fault zones and fault zone physical properties at seismogenic depths. These in situ physical properties can then be used to infer the presence and distribution of fluids along faults, although such observations are by nature indirect and become less exact with greater depth. Multiple observations of a range of such geophysical properties as compressional and shear seismic velocity (Vp and Vs), Vp/V5 ratio (related to Poisson's ratio), resistivity and attenuation in and adjacent to fault zones offer the greatest hope of making inferences of the fault zone geometry, fluids in the fault zone, and fluid reservoirs in the surrounding crust. For simple geometries, fault zone guided waves can provide information on fault zone width and velocities for faults of the order of 200 m wide. To address the question of whether a narrow fault zone can be imaged well enough at depths of seismic rupture to infer the presence of anomalously high fluid/rock ratios, we present synthetic seismic tomography and magnetotelluric examples for an ideal case of a narrow fault zone with a simple geometry, large changes in material properties, and numerous earthquakes within the fault zone. A synthetic 0.5-km wide fault zone with 20% velocity reduction is well imaged using local earthquake tomography. When sequential velocity inversions are done, the true fault width is found, even to 9 km depth, although the calculated amplitude of the velocity reduction is lower than the actual amplitude. Vp/Vs is as well determined as Vp. Magnetotelluric imaging of a synthetic fault zone shows that a conductive fault zone can be well imaged within the upper 10 km. Further, a narrow (1 km) very low resistivity (3 ohm m) fault core can be imaged within a broad (5 km) low resistivity (10 ohm m) fault zone, illustrating that regions of a fault containing large quantities of interconnected fluids within a broader, conductive fault zone should be detectable. Thus variations in fluid content and fluid pressure can be inferred from electrical and seismic methods but there will always be uncertainty in these inferences due to the trade-off with other factors, such as intrinsic variations in porosity, mineralogy, and pore geometry. The best approach is combined modeling of varied seismic and electrical data.

Surface seismic and electrical methods to detect fluids related to faulting

In our laboratory, we combine accurate electromagnetic radiation (EMR) measurements during fracture of rocks (carbonate and igneous) and transparent materials (glass, PMMA and glass ceramics) with careful fractographic methods. A critical analysis of experimental observations, accumulated here during the last decade together with supporting material from the works of other authors are used in this study to demonstrate the failure of all current models to explain the properties of EMR arising from fracture. The basic elements of a new model are proposed. These are (a) the EMR amplitude increases as long as the crack continues to grow, since new atomic bonds are severed and their contribution is added to the EMR. As a result, the atoms on both sides of the bonds are moved to `non-equilibrium' positions relative to their steady state ones and begin to oscillate collectively in a manner similar to Debye model bulk oscillations—`surface vibrational optical waves'; (b) when the crack halts, the waves and the EMR pulse amplitude decay by relaxation. These basic elements are already enough to describe the characteristics of the experimentally obtained isolated individual EMR pulses. These characteristics include the shape of the EMR pulse envelope, and the frequency, time duration and rise–fall time of the pulse.

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Fracture induced electromagnetic radiation

For this study, microseismic (MS) and electromagnetic radiation (EMR) monitoring systems were installed in a coal mine to monitor rock bursts. The MS system monitors coal or rock mass ruptures in the whole mine, whereas the EMR equipment monitors the coal or rock stress in a small area. By analysing the MS energy, number of MS events, and EMR intensity with respect to rock bursts, it has been shown that the energy and number of MS events present a “quiet period” 1–3 days before the rock burst. The data also show that the EMR intensity reaches a peak before the rock burst and this EMR intensity peak generally corresponds to the MS “quiet period”. There is a positive correlation between stress and EMR intensity. Buckling failure of coal or rock depends on the rheological properties and occurs after the peak stress in the high-stress concentration areas in deep mines. The MS “quiet period” before the rock burst is caused by the heterogeneity of the coal and rock structures, the transfer of high stress into internal areas, locked patches, and self-organized criticality near the stress peak. This study increases our understanding of coal and rock instability in deep mines. Combining MS and EMR to monitor rock burst could improve prediction accuracy.

I. Yamada

Papers

Electromagnetic and acoustic emission associated with rock fracture