Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

/pdf/a-globally-coherent-fingerprint-of-climate-change-impacts-5duzh6vc6b.pdf

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 °C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate1. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history2, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change3. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or ‘fingerprint’, in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.

/pdf/fingerprints-of-global-warming-on-wild-animals-and-plants-4y9aiz1zx6.pdf

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

We present new remote sensing indices of plant water status: the ratio between the reflectance at 970 nm, one of the water absorption bands, and the reflectance at a reference wavelength, 900 nm (R970/R9000; the first derivative minimum in this near-infrared region (dNIRminimum ) and the wavelength where this minimum is found ( λNIRminimum). In order to evaluate them, we carried out three experiments. Daily irrigated gerbera plants were allowed to dry until almost wilting and then daily irrigation was restarted; pepper and bean plants were grown for four months submitted to two different irrigation treatments; and bean detached leaves were submitted to progressive dehydration whereas pressure-volume curves were being carried out. In gerbera plants, the trough about 950–970 nm decreased as the drought was increasing. Therefore, the R970/R900 index and the dNIRminimum closely tracked the changes in relative water content (RWC), leaf water potential, stomatal conductance and the foliage-air temperat...

The reflectance at the 950-970 nm region as an indicator of plant water status

Visible and near-infrared reflectance techniques for diagnosing plant physiological status

Animal and plant life cycles are increasingly shown to depend on temperature trends and patterns. In their Perspective,
 PeA±uelas and Filella
 review the evidence that global warming during the 20th century has affected the growth period of plants and the development and behavior of animals from insects to birds. The authors warn that changes in the interdependence between species could have unpredictable consequences for ecosystems, that the lengthening of the plant growing season contributes to the global increased carbon fixation, and that changes in phenology may affect not only ecosystems but also agriculture and sanitation.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/294/5543/793.full.pdf

Responses to a Warming World

Some red edge parameters in the first derivative reflectance curve (wavelength, amplitude and area of the red edge peak) were studied to evaluate plant chlorophyll content, biomassand RelativeWater Content (RWC).Plants of Capsicum annuum and Phaseolus vulgaris under different nitrogen and water availabilities, and plants of Gerbera jamesonii with different hydric status were studied. A high correlation was found between chlorophyll content and the wavelength of the red edge peak (λre ), and between LAI (leaf area index)and the amplitude of the red edge peak (drr e ), but the area of the red edge peak (σ680–780 nm) was the best estimator of LAI. Thus, red edge was found valuable for assessment of plant chlorophyll concentration and LAI, and therefore nutritional status. Water stress also affected drre, but only when the stress was well developed.

The red edge position and shape as indicators of plant chlorophyll content, biomass and hydric status.

Water Index WI (R900/R970) was used for the estimation of plant water concentration (PWC) by ground-based, reflectance measurements. Reflectance and PWC were measured for adult plants growing in the field throughout an annual cycle and in potted seedlings submitted to progressive desiccation. The species studied were characteristicly Mediterranean: Pinus halepensis, Quercus ilex, Quercus coccifera, Arbutus unedo, Cistus albidus, Cistus monspeliensis, Phillyrea angustifolia, Pistacia lentiscus and Brachypodium retusum . WI was significantly correlated with PWC when all the species were considered together, and with almost all the species considered individually, especially when a wider range of PWC was obtained by extreme dessication of experimental plants. The correlations increased when normalizing WI by NDVI. The wavelength of the trough corresponding to water absorption band tended to shift from 970-980 nm to lower wavelengths 930-950 nm with decreasing PWCs. Infrared measurement of plant temp...

Iolanda Filella

Papers

The reflectance at the 950-970 nm region as an indicator of plant water status

Visible and near-infrared reflectance techniques for diagnosing plant physiological status

Responses to a Warming World

The red edge position and shape as indicators of plant chlorophyll content, biomass and hydric status.

Estimation of plant water concentration by the reflectance Water Index WI (R900/R970)