Why do some wars result in the intentional killing of large numbers of civilians? In this article we examine the incidence of mass killing in all wars from 1945 to 2000. In the statistical analysis of our data set of 147 wars, we find strong evidence supporting our hypothesis that mass killing is often a calculated military strategy used by regimes attempting to defeat major guerrilla insurgencies. Unlike conventional military forces, guerrilla armies often rely directly on the local civilian population for logistical support. Because guerrilla forces are difficult to defeat directly, governments facing major guerrilla insurgencies have strong incentives to target the guerrillas' civilian base of support. We find that mass killing is significantly more likely during guerrilla wars than during other kinds of wars. In addition, we find that the likelihood of mass killing among guerrilla conflicts is greatly increased when the guerrillas receive high levels of active support from the local population or when the insurgency poses a major military threat to the regime.For their helpful comments on previous versions of this article the authors thank Bear Braumoeller, Alex Downes, Jim Fearon, Hazem Goborah, Stathis Kalyvas, Gary King, Will Lowe, Matthew Krain, Lisa Martin, Manus Midlarsky, Bruce Russett, Nicholas Sambanis, Naunihal Singh, Abdulkader Sinno, Allan Stam, Jeremy Weinstein, and the anonymous reviewers of International Organization. We are also grateful to Wolfgang Moehler for his research assistance.
 Our coauthor Dylan Balch-Lindsay was killed in an automobile accident on 1 September 2002, cutting short a promising career. He was a gifted young scholar, without whom this article would not have been possible. He is sorely missed by his friends and colleagues. Donations in his name can be sent to the Dylan Balch-Lindsay Memorial Fund for Graduate Education/Foundation of the University of New Mexico, c/o Carol Brown, Department of Political Science, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, 87131-1121.

“Draining the Sea”: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare

Close relatives and friends are dead or missing. Homes lie in ruins. Property has been destroyed. With everybody experiencing trouble, severe privations and physical suffering, it is still something altogether different whether one retains a home and household goods or has been ruined by bombs; whether he sustained his suffering and losses in combat at the front, at home, or in a concentration camp; whether he was a hunted.., victim or one of those who, even though in fear, profited by the regime .... Men have come to the limits of humanity and returned home, unable to forget what really was .... The suffering differs in kind, and most people have sense only for their

/pdf/violence-and-social-repair-rethinking-the-contribution-of-4b8iasbdcf.pdf

Violence and Social Repair: Rethinking the Contribution of Justice to Reconciliation

The author argues that openings in the political opportunity structure, rather than the levels of concentration of power, best predict the onset of genocides or politicides and which states will engage in the most severe state-sponsored mass murder. These and other hypotheses are tested. Analysis of logit models reveals that civil war involvement is the most consistent predictor of the onset of genocides or politicides, and other political opportunity structure variables have some effects, especially when in combination with at least one of the other political opportunity structure variables. Analysis of negative binomial event-count models also reveals that political opportunity structure variables best account for the degree of severity of a given genocide or politicide. In sum, openings in the political opportunity structure are more important in understanding what affects the onset and degree of severity of genocides and politicides than other more static variables.

State-Sponsored Mass Murder: The Onset and Severity of Genocides and Politicides

Figures Tables Preface Introduction 1. Repression and the search for peace 2. Disaggregation and contextualization 3. Data and methodology 4. Democratic pacification: the direct effects of voice and veto 5. Peace under fire: the interactive effect of democracy and conflict 6. (Re)considering domestic peace Appendices Bibliography Index.

/pdf/state-repression-and-the-domestic-democratic-peace-2ltm8pkbpn.pdf

State Repression and the Domestic Democratic Peace

The interactions between identity groups engaged in a protracted conflict lack the conditions postulated by Gordon Allport in The Nature of Prejudice (1954) as necessary if contact is to reduce intergroup prejudice. The article examines the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from this perspective. After summarizing the history of the conflict, it proposes that a long-term resolution of the conflict requires development of a transcendent identity for the two peoples that does not threaten the particularistic identity of each. The nature of the conflict, however, impedes the development of a transcendent identity by creating a state of negative interdependence between the two identities such that asserting one group's identity requires negating the identity of the other. The resulting threat to each group's identity is further exacerbated by the fact that each side perceives the other as a source of some of its own negative identity elements, especially a view of the self as victim and as victimizer. The article concludes with a discussion of ways of over-coming the negative interdependence of the two identities by drawing on some of the positive elements in the relationship, most notably the positive interdependence between the two groups that exists in reality. Problem-solving workshops represent one setting for equal-status interactions that provide the parties the opportunity to “negotiate” their identities and to find ways of accommodating the identity of the other in their own identity.

The Interdependence of Israeli and Palestinian National Identities: The Role of the Other in Existential Conflicts

How Can We Commit The Unthinkable?: Genocide: The Human Cancer

Although acts of genocide are undeniable historical facts, they soon come under assault by doubters, deniers, and "interpreters, " who try to shape the events to fit their own purposes, often creating confusion and doubt. This book is important to keep the record straight. Filled with eyewitness accounts, scholarly analyses, and historical data, this first-of-its-kind overview is the work of leading scholars and thinkers. It meticulously documents atrocities and crimes against humanity that have been perpetrated for reasons that range from "the will of God" to "ethnic cleansing." Focusing on the major atrocities of our time, the book provides accurate and verifiable historical information on how and why particular genocides were committed. Each original essay is accompanied by excerpts from personal accounts of survivors that vividly remind us that the statistics and plain facts represent men, women, and children who were persecuted and killed. Since each contributor addresses the same questions and issues, the essays provide a unified framework for analyzing and comparing the various historical events. An index facilitates research, and bibliographies point to sources where the subject can be pursued in greater depth.

Century of genocide : eyewitness accounts and critical views

Encyclopedia of genocide

Provides an annotated list of books concerning the Holocaust, the Armenian genocide, genocide in the Soviet Union, Cambodian genocide, nuclear war, and the literature of the Holocaust.

Genocide : a critical bibliographic review

Gross denials of the Holocaust are increasing; a dramatic reflection of these was the notorious suit brought by David Irving against Deborah Lipstadt over her major work in London. This chapter presents the classification which addresses a broader coalition of deniers, which includes not only perpetrators and bigots, but many other people who are drawn to denials because they serve their self-interests in one or more ways. Denials of bona fide genocides naturally attract fascists, such as neo-Nazis, virulent antisemites, "skinheads" and bigots of all kinds who hate other peoples and ethnicities, who utilize denials of genocide to celebrate violence and death to human life. Denials of genocidal events by perpetrator governments and/or perpetrators. The continuing denial of the Armenian Genocide by the Turkish government is probably the outstanding and most persistent case of denial by non-perpetrators. Incredible energies have been expended by academicians on battles over competing definitions of genocide.

Israel W. Charny

Papers

How Can We Commit The Unthinkable?: Genocide: The Human Cancer

Century of genocide : eyewitness accounts and critical views

Encyclopedia of genocide

Genocide : a critical bibliographic review

A classification of denials of the Holocaust and other genocides