Epidemic outbreaks are a special case of supply chain (SC) risks which is distinctively characterized by a long-term disruption existence, disruption propagations (i.e., the ripple effect), and high uncertainty. We present the results of a simulation study that opens some new research tensions on the impact of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) on the global SCs. First, we articulate the specific features that frame epidemic outbreaks as a unique type of SC disruption risks. Second, we demonstrate how simulation-based methodology can be used to examine and predict the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SC performance using the example of coronavirus COVID-19 and anyLogistix simulation and optimization software. We offer an analysis for observing and predicting both short-term and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs along with managerial insights. A set of sensitivity experiments for different scenarios allows illustrating the model's behavior and its value for decision-makers. The major observation from the simulation experiments is that the timing of the closing and opening of the facilities at different echelons might become a major factor that determines the epidemic outbreak impact on the SC performance rather than an upstream disruption duration or the speed of epidemic propagation. Other important factors are lead-time, speed of epidemic propagation, and the upstream and downstream disruption durations in the SC. The outcomes of this research can be used by decision-makers to predict the operative and long-term impacts of epidemic outbreaks on the SCs and develop pandemic SC plans. Our approach can also help to identify the successful and wrong elements of risk mitigation/preparedness and recovery policies in case of epidemic outbreaks. The paper is concluded by summarizing the most important insights and outlining future research agenda.

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Predicting the impacts of epidemic outbreaks on global supply chains: A simulation-based analysis on the coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) case

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03112204/document

OR-methods for coping with the ripple effect in supply chains during COVID-19 pandemic: Managerial insights and research implications.

Research on supply chain (SC) digitalization, resilience, sustainability and leagility has remarkably progressed, most of it focused on the individual contributions of these four major frameworks. ...

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02882722/document

Reconfigurable supply chain: the X-network

The ripple effect refers to structural dynamics and describes a downstream propagation of the downscaling in demand fulfilment in the supply chain (SC) as a result of a severe disruption. The bullw...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00207543.2019.1627438

Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain†

The ripple effect can occur when a supplier base disruption cannot be localised and consequently propagates downstream the supply chain (SC), adversely affecting performance. While stress-testing o...

/pdf/ripple-effect-modelling-of-supplier-disruption-integrated-1o22ogsprx.pdf

Ripple effect modelling of supplier disruption: integrated Markov chain and dynamic Bayesian network approach

This book offers an introduction to the ripple effect in the supply chain for larger audience. Ripple effect describes the impact of a disruption propagation on SC performance and disruption-based scope of changes in SC structural design and planning parameters. As the result of the ripple effect SC structures change. It is different from the bullwhip-effect that affect the SC at the operational level by mismatching demand and supply without structural changes in the SC design, i.e., without SC structural dynamics

Ivanov

Papers

Handbook of Ripple Effects in the Supply Chain