This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilisation. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macro-economic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal structural shocks (including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks) allows for an empirical investigation of the effects of such shocks and of their contribution to business cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Using the estimated model, the paper also analyses the output (real interest rate) gap, defined as the difference between the actual and model-based potential output (real interest rate).

An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. NBB Working Paper Nr. 35

The ability of a two-sector model to quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations is investigated using U.S. data and Bayesian methods. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, displays the following features: first, a large fraction of the upward trend in real housing prices over the last 40 years can be accounted for by slow technological progress in the housing sector; second, residential investment and housing prices are very sensitive to monetary policy and housing demand shocks; third, the wealth effects from housing on consumption are positive and significant, and have become more important over time. The structural nature of the model allows identifying and quantifying the sources of fluctuations in house prices and residential investment and measuring the contribution of housing booms and busts to business cycles.

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Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

﻿LEAVING aside the courageous efforts of people around Monthly Review and Science and Society there has, by and large, been hardly any Marxist tradition among American intellectuals. However, during the last few years the situation has considerably changed and there is now a growing interest in Marxism, particularly among the younger social scientists of America. The book under review falls within this trend.

Value and Capital

This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural estimation methodology allows us to investigate whether differences in business cycle behaviour are due to differences in the type of shocks that affect the two economies, differences in the propagation mechanism of those shocks or differences in the way the central bank responds to those economic developments. Our main conclusion is that each of those characteristics is remarkably similar across both currency areas.

Comparing Shocks and Frictions in US and Euro Area Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach. NBB Working Paper Nr. 61, October 2004

We extend the basic (representative-household) New Keynesian [NK] model of the monetary transmission mechanism to allow for a spread between the interest rate available to savers and borrowers, that can vary for either exogenous or endogenous reasons. We find that the mere existence of a positive average spread makes little quantitative difference for the predicted effects of particular policies. Variation in spreads over time is of greater significance, with consequences both for the equilibrium relation between the policy rate and aggregate expenditure and for the relation between real activity and inflation. Nonetheless, we find that the target criterion - a linear relation that should be maintained between the inflation rate and changes in the output gap - that characterizes optimal policy in the basic NK model continues to provide a good approximation to optimal policy, even in the presence of variations in credit spreads. We also consider a "spread-adjusted Taylor rule," in which the intercept of the Taylor rule is adjusted in proportion to changes in credit spreads. We show that while such an adjustment can improve upon an unadjusted Taylor rule, the optimal degree of adjustment is less than 100 percent; and even with the correct size of adjustment, such a rule of thumb remains inferior to the targeting rule.

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Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy

This paper analyses and compares the roles which Belgium and Italy have played in the process of European monetary integration. It discusses Belgian and Italian attitudes towards European integration and EMU, exchange rate policies, key concepts of the Belgian and Italian EMU strategies and the concrete contributions made by Belgium and Italy. Overall, these two countries played an important and pace-setting role in the process of European monetary integration. They developed several creative and diplomatic proposals. Moreover, Belgian and Italian policy-makers often acted as "policy entrepreneurs" and proved to be skillful negotiators. The main difference is that Belgium has been a constant and consistent "pace-setter" in monetary matters, from the preparation of the Hague Summit to the elaboration of the EMS, the monetary chapter in the Single European Act and the realisation of EMU, whereas Italy was mainly active in the 1980s. This assessment of the Belgian and Italian contributions does not challenge the decisive impact of the Franco-German axis, but illustrates that EMU was a multilateral process. Furthermore, the paper shows how important it was for a country to achieve a sound economic performance, especially a stable exchange rate, in order to have influence on the European monetary scene.

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The Process of European Monetary Integration: A Comparison of the Belgian and Italian Approaches

EMU is, to a large extent, the result of a process of Franco-German reconciliation and understanding. However, in the postwar period, there were significant differences in ideas and economic policy-making in Germany and France. France was dominated by the "tradition republicaine", giving a central role to the state in economic life. In Germany, the federal structure of the state went together with the social market economy. In this paper an analysis is presented of these differences in thought and economic policy-making, how they evolved through time, and how they contributed to shaping the nature and form of the European Union. The focus is on the Rome Treaties, the Werner Report and the Maastricht Treaty process.

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On the Origins of the Franco-German EMU Controversies

Keynesian economics dominated economic thought and macroeconomic policy-making in the 1950s and 1960s. However, the diffusion of Keynesian economics has been uneven. In this paper, we compare the spread of Keynesian economics in two continental European countries: Belgium and Italy. We focus on the post-World War II period, taking as the main message of Keynesian economics that the market is inherently unstable and that the government has a key role in economic life in steering effective demand. We further follow Coddington's distinction between "hydraulic", "disequilibrium" and "fundamentalist" Keynesianism. The study shows that Belgium and Italy were two countries were Keynesian economics gained ground only relatively late. The breakthrough of (hydraulic) Keynesianism came in areas which were close to the policy-making process: setting up national income accounts, the construction of macroeconomic models and correcting regional imbalances. The main difference between the two countries was the strong position of fundamentalist Keynesianism in the academic world in Italy, while in Belgium, disequilibrium Keynesianism was more influential.

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The spread of Keynesian economics : a comparison of the Belgian and Italian experiences

Alexandre Lamfalussy has been highly influential in the process of European monetary and financial integration. In this paper we will analyse the work of the "Young Lamfalussy" (from the mid 1950s to the mid 1960s). Lamfalussy started his career as an academic, focusing on growth theory and Belgian and European growth patterns in the post-war period. His work is still influential in recent literature on Europe's post-war economic growth. It fits nicely into the Keynesian tradition: Lamfalussy's analytical frameworks were often inspired by Keynesian models; in his analysis, he emphasised vicious and virtuous circles in the economy and, in his policy conclusions, he was a clear partisan of more planning. However, certain elements, typical also of Lamfalussy's later work, were already present, not least a strong European conviction and an eclectic approach towards economics, blending economic theory and empirical data beautifully to elucidate crucial policy problems.

The young Lamfalussy: an empirical and policy-oriented growth theorist. NBB Working Papers. No. 163, 30 April 2009

Among the international policy institutions, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known for its sensitivity to financial stability issues. Attention to the "macro-prudential" dimension of financial stability is very typical for the BIS. The Bank's macro-prudential approach first came to the fore in the 1986 Cross Report. It defined the macro-prudential domain as "the safety and soundness of the broad financial system and payments mechanism". In this paper, it will be argued that Alexandre Lamfalussy, who was at the BIS from 1976 to 1993, played a crucial role in shaping the Bank's approach to financial stability. Lamfalussy is renowned for taking a broad macroeconomic view and for focusing on the systemically important financial institutions, as the failure of one of these individual institutions would threaten the whole financial system. In Lamfalussy's view, there is thus very much an overlap between the micro- and macro-prudential dimensions of financial stability. This paper traces Lamfalussy's analysis of financial fragility and goes into the reasons for his sensitivity to it. Among the main elements involved were: a "Keynesian" Weltanschauung (that a market economy is not sufficiently self-correcting); the emphasis of Dupriez (his teacher in Louvain) on cycles; Lamfalussy's own experience as a commercial banker; BIS involvement in financial stability issues, especially the Latin American debt crisis of 1982-83; and research in the central banking community on financial innovations in the early 1980s.

On the origins of the BIS macro-prudential approach to financial stability: Alexandre Lamfalussy and financial fragility. NBB Working Paper 176, October 2009

Ivo Maes

Papers

The Process of European Monetary Integration: A Comparison of the Belgian and Italian Approaches

On the Origins of the Franco-German EMU Controversies

The spread of Keynesian economics : a comparison of the Belgian and Italian experiences

The young Lamfalussy: an empirical and policy-oriented growth theorist. NBB Working Papers. No. 163, 30 April 2009

On the origins of the BIS macro-prudential approach to financial stability: Alexandre Lamfalussy and financial fragility. NBB Working Paper 176, October 2009