世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

It is widely known that when there are errors with a moving-average root close to -1, a high order augmented autoregression is necessary for unit root tests to have good size, but that information criteria such as the AIC and the BIC tend to select a truncation lag (k) that is very small. We consider a class of Modified Information Criteria (MIC) with a penalty factor that is sample dependent. It takes into account the fact that the bias in the sum of the autoregressive coefficients is highly dependent on k and adapts to the type of deterministic components present. We use a local asymptotic framework in which the moving-average root is local to -1 to document how the MIC performs better in selecting appropriate values of k. In Monte-Carlo experiments, the MIC is found to yield huge size improvements to the DF GLS and the feasible point optimal P T test developed in Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996). We also extend the M tests developed in Perron and Ng (1996) to allow for GLS detrending of the data. The MIC along with GLS detrended data yield a set of tests with desirable size and power properties.

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Lag length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power

Informality: exit and exclusion analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. The authors use two distinct but complementary lenses: informality driven by exclusion from state benefits or the circuits of the modern economy, and driven by voluntary 'exit' decisions resulting from private cost-benefit calculations that lead workers and firms to opt out of formal institutions. They find both lenses have considerable explanatory power to understand the causes and consequences of informality in the region. Informality: exit and exclusion concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the 'culture of informality' will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy, reform poorly designed regulations and social policies, and increase the legitimacy of the state by improving the quality and fairness of state institutions and policies. Although the study focuses on Latin America, its analysis, approach, and conclusions are relevant for all developing countries.

Informality: Exit and Exclusion

This paper describes the correlations between inequality and the growth rates in cross-country data. Using non-parametric methods, we show that the growth rate is an inverted U-shaped function of net changes in inequality: Changes in inequality (in any direction) are associated with reduced growth in the next period. The estimated relationship is robust to variations in control variables and estimation methods. This inverted U-curve is consistent with a simple political economy model, although, as we point out, efforts to interpret this model causally run into difficult identification problems. We show that this non-linearity is sufficient to explain why previous estimates of the relationship between the level of inequality and growth are so different from one another.

Inequality and Growth: What Can the Data Say?

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(12)62086-8.pdf

Migration and health in an increasingly diverse Europe

Poverty Reduction and Growth is about the existence of these vicious circles in Latin America and the Caribbean about the ways and means to convert them into virtuous circles in which poverty reduction and high growth reinforce each other. This publication is organized as follows: Chapter 1: From vicious to virtuous circle; Chapter 2: Dimensions of well-being, channels to growth; Chapter 3: How did we get here? Chapter 4: The relative roles of growth and inequality for poverty reduction; Chapter 5: Pro-poor growth in Latin America; Chapter 6: Does poverty matter for growth? Chapter 7: Subnational dimensions of growth and poverty; Chapter 8: Microdeterminants of incomes: labor markets, poverty, and traps?; and Chapter 9: Breaking the cycle of underinvestment in human capital in Latin America.

Poverty Reduction and Growth: Virtuous and Vicious Circles

This paper explores the impact of remittances on poverty, education, and health in 11 Latin American countries using nationally representative household surveys and making an explicit attempt to account for one of the inherent costs associated with migration-the potential income that the migrant may have made at home. The main findings of the study are the following: (1) regardless of the counterfactual used remittances appear to lower poverty levels in most recipient countries; (2) yet despite this general tendency, the estimated impacts tend to be modest; and (3) there is significant country heterogeneity in the poverty reduction impact of remittances' flows. Among the aspects that have been identified in the paper that may lead to varying outcomes across countries are the percentage of households reporting remittances income, the share of remittances of recipient households belonging to the lowest quintiles of the income distribution, and the relative importance of remittances flows with respect to GDP. While remittances tend to have positive effects on education and health, this impact is often restricted to specific groups of the population.

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The impact of remittances on poverty and human capital: evidence from Latin American household surveys.

There are four main messages that emerge from this book. First, no matter how authors look at the issue, remittances are extremely important in the Latin American context. With remittances estimated to have topped more than US$50 billion in 2006, Latin America is now the main destination of these flows. Second, remittances generate a number of important positive contributions to economic development. In particular, they tend to reduce poverty and inequality in recipient countries, as well as increase aggregate investment and growth. Third, even though remittances have a positive impact on the development indicators of the recipient economies, the magnitude of the estimated changes tends to be modest. Fourth, policy makers may take actions to enhance the development impact of remittances. One important message of this book is that the way countries benefit from remittances appears to be positively related to the countries' own institutional and macroeconomic environments.

Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America

Is a pro-growth strategy always the best pro-poor strategy? To address this issue, the author provides an empirical evaluation of the impact of a series of pro-growth policies on inequality and headcount poverty. He relies on a large macroeconomic data set and estimate dynamic panel models that allows him to differentiate between the short- and long-run impacts of the policies under consideration on growth, inequality, and poverty. The author's findings indicate that regardless of their impact on inequality, pro-growth policies lead to lower poverty levels in the long run. However, he also finds evidence indicating that some of these policies may lead to higher inequality and, under plausible assumptions for the distribution of income, to higher poverty levels in the short run. These findings would justify the adoption of a pro-growth policy package as the center of any poverty reduction strategy, together with pro-poor measures that complement such a package by offsetting potential short-run increases in poverty.

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Pro-Growth, Pro-Poor: Is There a Tradeoff?

Latin America is together with Sub-Saharan Africa the most unequal region of the world. This paper documents recent inequality trends in the Latin American region, going beyond traditional measures of income inequality. The paper also reviews some of the explanations that have been put forward to understand the current situation, and discusses why reducing income inequality should be an important policy priority. In particular, the authors discuss channels through which inequality can affect growth and output volatility. On the whole, the analysis suggests a two-pronged approach to reduce inequality in the region that combines policies aimed at improving the distribution of assets (especially education) with elements aimed at improving the capacity of the state to redistribute income through taxes and transfers.

/pdf/inequality-in-latin-america-determinants-and-consequences-5detiqkas9.pdf

J. Humberto López

Papers

Poverty Reduction and Growth: Virtuous and Vicious Circles

The impact of remittances on poverty and human capital: evidence from Latin American household surveys.

Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America

Pro-Growth, Pro-Poor: Is There a Tradeoff?

Inequality in Latin America : Determinants and Consequences