Showing papers by "Jan in 't Veld published in 2019"

Quantifying the Economic Effects of the Single Market in a Structural Macromodel

Abstract: This paper examines the macro-economic benefits of the Single Market in goods and services by simulating a counterfactual scenario in which tariffs and non-tariff barriers are reintroduced. Model simulations show how the reintroduction of trade barriers in such a counterfactual would lead to significantly lower trade flows between the Member States. Lower trade openness also means reduced market size and less competition. Using empirical evidence on the effect of the Single Market on firms’ mark-ups over marginal costs, we add these effects to the direct trade effects to come to a total estimate of the economic benefits of the Single Market of between 8% and 9% higher GDP on average for the EU.

A Model-Based Assessment of the Distributional Impact of Structural Reforms

Abstract: This paper studies the effects of structural reforms on the functional distribution of income in EU Member States. To study this mechanism we use a DSGE model (Roeger et al. 2008) with households supplying three types of labour, low-, medium- and high-skilled. We assume that households receive income from labour, tangible capital, intangible capital, financial wealth and transfers and we trace how structural reforms affect these types of incomes. The quantification of structural reforms is based on changes in structural indicators that can significantly close the gap of a country’s average income towards the best performing countries in the EU. We find a general trade-off between an increase in employment of a particular group and the income of the average group member relative to income per capita. In general, reforms which aim at increasing employment of low skilled workers are associated with a fall in wages relative to income per capita. Capital owners generally benefit from labour market reforms, with an increasing share in total income, due to limited entry into the final goods production sector. This suggests that labour market re-forms may lead to suboptimal distributional effects if there are rigidities in goods markets present, a finding which confirms the importance of ensuring that such reforms are accompanied or preceded by product market reforms.