OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.

https://www.who.int/diabetes/facts/en/diabcare0504.pdf

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(05)17741-1.pdf

Global burden of hypertension: analysis of worldwide data

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(06)68770-9.pdf

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(96)07493-4.pdf

Mortality by cause for eight regions of the world: Global Burden of Disease Study

Objectives: To estimate the overall prevalence and absolute burden of overweight and obesity in the world and in various regions in 2005 and to project the global burden in 2030. Design: Pooling analysis Data Sources: We identified sex- and age-specific prevalence of overweight and obesity in representative population samples from 106 countries, which cover approximately 88% of the world population, using MEDLINE and other computerized databases, supplemented by a manual search of references from retrieved articles. Methods: Sex- and age-specific prevalence of overweight and obesity were applied to the 2005 population to estimate the numbers of overweight and obese individuals in each country, each world region and the entire world. In addition, the prevalence, with and without adjusting for secular trends, were applied to the 2030 population projections to forecast the number of overweight and obese individuals in 2030. Results: Overall, 23.2% (95% confidence interval 22.8-23.5%) of the world's adult population in 2005 was overweight (24.0% in men (23.4-24.5%) and 22.4% in women (21.9-22.9%)), and 9.8% (9.6-10.0%) was obese (7.7% in men (7.4-7.9%) and 11.9% in women (11.6-12.2%)). The estimated total numbers of overweight and obese adults in 2005 were 937 million (922-951 million) and 396 million (388-405 million), respectively. By 2030, the respective number of overweight and obese adults was projected to be 1.35 billion and 573 million individuals without adjusting for secular trends. If recent secular trends continue unabated, the absolute numbers were projected to total 2.16 billion overweight and 1.12 billion obese individuals. Conclusions: Overweight and obesity are important clinical and public health burdens worldwide. National programs for the prevention and treatment of overweight, obesity and related comorbidities and mortalities should be a public health priority.

Global burden of obesity in 2005 and projections to 2030

This is the sixteenth in the annual series and examines the interplay between human health, health policy and economic development. Because good health increases the economic productivity of individuals and the economic growth rate of countries, investing in health is one means of accelerating development. More important, good health is a goal in itself. During the past forty years life expectancy in the developing world has risen and child mortality has decreased, sometimes dramatically. But progress is only one side of the picture. The toll from childhood and tropical diseases remains high even as new problems - including AIDS and the diseases of aging populations - appear on the scene. And all countries are struggling with the problems of controlling health expenditures and making health care accessible to the broad population. This report examines the controversial questions surrounding health care and health policy. Its findings are based in large part on innovative research, including estimation of the global burden of disease and the cost-effectiveness of interventions. These assessments can help in setting priorities for health spending. The report advocates a threefold approach to health policy for governments in developing countries and in the formerly socialist countries. First, to foster an economic environment that will enable households to improve their own health. Policies for economic growth that ensure income gains for the poor are essential. So, too, is expanded investment in schooling, particulary for girls. Second, redirect government spending away from specialized care and toward such low-cost and highly effective activities such as immunization, programs to combat micronutrient deficiencies, and control and treatment of infectious diseases. By adopting the packages of public health measures and essential clinical care dsecribed in the report, developing countries could reduce their burden of disease by 25 percent. Third, encourage greater diversity and competition in the provision of health services by decentralizing government services, promoting competitive procurement practices, fostering greater involvement by nongovernmental and other private organizations, and regulating insurance markets. These reforms could translate into longer, healthier, and more productive lives for people around the world, and especially for the more than 1 billion poor. As in previous editions, this report includes the World Development Indicators, which give comprehensive, current data on social and economic development in more than 200 countries and territories.

Jee-Peng Tan

Papers

World development report 1993 : investing in health

Informe sobre el desarrollo mundial 1993 : investir en salud

Rapport sur le developpement dans le monde 1993 : investir dans la sante

Weltentwicklungsbericht 1993 : investitionen in die gesundheit