In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

The causes of antibiotic resistance are complex and include human behaviour at many levels of society; the consequences affect everybody in the world. Similarities with climate change are evident. Many efforts have been made to describe the many different facets of antibiotic resistance and the interventions needed to meet the challenge. However, coordinated action is largely absent, especially at the political level, both nationally and internationally. Antibiotics paved the way for unprecedented medical and societal developments, and are today indispensible in all health systems. Achievements in modern medicine, such as major surgery, organ transplantation, treatment of preterm babies, and cancer chemotherapy, which we today take for granted, would not be possible without access to effective treatment for bacterial infections. Within just a few years, we might be faced with dire setbacks, medically, socially, and economically, unless real and unprecedented global coordinated actions are immediately taken. Here, we describe the global situation of antibiotic resistance, its major causes and consequences, and identify key areas in which action is urgently needed.

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Antibiotic resistance—the need for global solutions

正しい方法がわかる臨床基本手技 : from the New England journal of medicine

Foundations Of Statistics

The case study approach allows in-depth, multi-faceted explorations of complex issues in their real-life settings. The value of the case study approach is well recognised in the fields of business, law and policy, but somewhat less so in health services research. Based on our experiences of conducting several health-related case studies, we reflect on the different types of case study design, the specific research questions this approach can help answer, the data sources that tend to be used, and the particular advantages and disadvantages of employing this methodological approach. The paper concludes with key pointers to aid those designing and appraising proposals for conducting case study research, and a checklist to help readers assess the quality of case study reports.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1186%2F1471-2288-11-100.pdf

The case study approach

Zeno Bisoffi and colleagues discuss a new clinical trial in Zanzibar comparing symptom-based clinical diagnosis of malaria versus clinical diagnosis plus rapid diagnostic tests.

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The role of rapid diagnostic tests in managing malaria

Background
Strongyloidiasis is commonly a clinically unapparent, chronic infection, but immuno suppressed subjects can develop fatal disease. We carried out a review of literature on hyperinfection syndrome (HS) and disseminated strongyloidiasis (DS), in order to describe the most challenging aspects of severe strongyloidiasis.

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Severe strongyloidiasis: a systematic review of case reports

Background
The prozone effect (or high doses-hook phenomenon) consists of false-negative or false-low results in immunological tests, due to an excess of either antigens or antibodies. Although frequently cited as a cause of false-negative results in malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), especially at high parasite densities of Plasmodium falciparum, it has been poorly documented. In this study, a panel of malaria RDTs was challenged with clinical samples with P. falciparum hyperparasitaemia (> 5% infected red blood cells).

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Assessment of the prozone effect in malaria rapid diagnostic tests

Background Information on epidemiology and prognosis of imported fever is scarce and almost exclusively limited to hospital settings. Methods From 2000 to 2005, all travelers presenting at our referral outpatient and inpatient centers with ongoing fever within 12 months after a stay in the tropics were prospectively followed. Case definitions and treatment were based on international recommendations. Outcome was assessed by at least 1 follow-up consultation or telephone call within 3 months after initial contact. Results A total of 1842 fever episodes were included, involving 1743 patients. Regions of exposure were mainly sub-Saharan Africa (68%) and the Southeast Asia-Pacific region (12%). Tropical diseases accounted for 39% of all cases and cosmopolitan infections for 34%. Diagnosis often remained unknown (24%). The pattern of tropical diseases was mainly influenced by the travel destination, with malaria (35%, mainly Plasmodium falciparum ) and rickettsial infection (4%) as the leading diagnoses after a stay in Africa; dengue (12%), malaria (9%), and enteric fever (4%) after travel to Asia; and dengue (8%) and malaria (4%) on return from Latin America. Disease pattern varied also according to the category of travelers, the delay between exposure and fever onset, and the setting. Hospitalization was required for 503 fever episodes (27%). Plasmodium falciparum malaria accounted for 36% of all admissions and was the only tropical cause of death (5 of 9 patients). Fever of unknown cause had invariably a favorable outcome. Conclusion The clinical spectrum of imported fever is highly destination specific but also depends on other factors. Plasmodium falciparum malaria was the leading cause of mortality in the study population.

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Etiology and Outcome of Fever After a Stay in the Tropics

Summary objectives To assess if the clinical outcome of patients treated after performing a Rapid Diagnostic Test for malaria (RDT) is at least equivalent to that of controls (treated presumptively without test) and to determine the impact of the introduction of a malaria RDT on clinical decisions. methods Randomized, multi-centre, open clinical trial in two arms in 2006 at the end of the dry and of the rainy season in 10 peripheral health centres in Burkina Faso: one arm with use of RDT before treatment decision, one arm managed clinically. Primary endpoint: persistence of fever at day 4. Secondary endpoints: frequency of malaria treatment and of antibiotic treatment. results A total of 852 febrile patients were recruited in the dry season and 1317 febrile patients in the rainy season, and randomized either to be submitted to RDT (P_RTD) or to be managed presumptively (P_CLIN). In both seasons, no significant difference was found between the two randomized groups in the frequency of antimalarial treatment, nor of antibiotic prescription. In the dry season, 80.8% and 79.8% of patients with a negative RDT were nevertheless diagnosed and treated for malaria, and so were 85.0% and 82.6% negative patients in the rainy season. In the rainy season only, both diagnosis and treatment of other conditions were significantly less frequent in RDT positive vs. negative patients (48.3% vs. 61.4% and 46.2% vs. 59.9%, P = 0.00 and 0.00, respectively). conclusion Our study was inconclusive on RDT safety (clinical outcome in the two randomized groups), because of an exceedingly and unexpectedly low compliance with the negative test result. Further research is needed on best strategies to promote adherence and on the safety of a test based strategy compared with the current, presumptive treatment strategy.

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Jef Van den Ende

Papers

The role of rapid diagnostic tests in managing malaria

Severe strongyloidiasis: a systematic review of case reports

Assessment of the prozone effect in malaria rapid diagnostic tests

Etiology and Outcome of Fever After a Stay in the Tropics

Rapid malaria diagnostic tests vs. clinical management of malaria in rural Burkina Faso: safety and effect on clinical decisions. A randomized trial.