Chapter 2 – Resources and energy

It has become important to address the question of which energy related infrastructure, such as transcontinental natural gas pipelines, should be constructed in Asia. In addition, one needs to ask how energy demand should be satisfied securely and economically, as well as environmentally benignly, over the next decades. This study investigates the possible future configuration of energy and CO2-related infrastructure in Asia and Eurasia, using a large-scale energy system model, which minimises inter-temporally the sum of the discounted total energy system costs until the year 2050. The model explicitly involves intra-regional transportation networks of fuels and recovered CO2 among approximately 100 nodes in Asia and Eurasia. The preliminary results indicate that long distance natural gas pipelines will be developed extensively in Asia and Eurasia, and that issuing carbon taxes of a few hundred dollars per ton of carbon enhance substantially the consumption of natural gas in electricity generation sectors, as a substitute fuel for coal. Such carbon taxes will make CO2 sequestration economically viable while increasing the cumulative amount of CO2 sequestration up to 15 gigatons (Gt) of CO2.

http://oldsite.nautilus.org/archives/energy/grid/papers/fujii.PDF

Analysis of the optimal configuration of energy transportation infrastructure in Asia with a linear programming energy system model

IIASA'S World regional energy modelling

During the years 1975–1978 concern over the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere expanded from the laboratory into the public policy arena. This was a period during which a profusion of international symposia, technical papers, and public-policy-oriented discussions drew wide attention to the potential dangers of unchecked growth of atmospheric CO2 and man's alterations of the global carbon cycle. At the same time, the interdisciplinary interactions focused attention on the gaps in understanding, the uncertainties in the models, the inadequacies of the data, and the difficulties inherent in forecasting. Recognizing the social, political, and economic implications should fossil fuel burning be implicated as a cause of major [unfavorable] changes in climate, the scientists involved have called for increased understanding through stimulated scientific inquiry, and for flexibility in public policy options.

Carbon dioxide and climate

It has been clearly recognized that future global climate change will limit the possibilities for sustainable development in China. To minimize these negative effects, as a practical strategy, we suggest that the Chinese government engage in international cooperation as a key contributor in the prevention of global warming. This suggestion results from numerical estimations of China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends accompanied with economic growth up to 2100. The results show that China’s gross domestic product (GDP), measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), may overtake the sum of the GDPs of the United States and Canada in 2020. It is predicted that GDP per capita may reach US$20,000 and $80,000 in 2050 and 2100, respectively; meanwhile, CO2 emissions in China will increase from 6.6 billion tons (in carbon equivalent units) in 1990 to 54.6 billion tons in 2100. This means that the global peak concentration of GHG cannot be practically reduced without significant contributions from China. For international cooperation in mitigating global climate change, we introduce a new option, “per-capita emission restricted by assigned amount,” as an accounting rule for GHG reduction. This baseline classifies global CO2 reduction actions into three categories: compulsory reduction, self-imposed reduction, and voluntary reduction. We suggest that China contribute to world CO2 reduction according to the following timetable: voluntary reduction until 2012, self-imposed reduction until 2020, and compulsory reduction from 2020. The simulation results also indicate that China can benefit from this strategy in terms of improvements in its domestic economy and environment, for instance, by reducing fossil fuel consumption and the emission of pollutants.

Jill Williams

Papers

Global energy strategies: The implications of CO2☆