COVID-19 pandemic persuaded lockdown effects on environment over stone quarrying and crushing areas

The impact of environmental pollutants and climate indicators on the outbreak of COVID-19 has gained considerable attention in the recent literature. However, specific investigation of industrial economies like Germany is not available. This provides us motivation to examine the association between environmental pollutants, climate indicators and the COVID-19 cases, recoveries, and deaths in Germany using daily data from February 24, 2020, to July 02, 2020. The correlation analysis and wavelet transform coherence (WTC) approach are the analytical tools, which are used to explore the association between variables included in the study. Our findings indicate that PM2.5, O3, and NO2 have a significant relationship with the outbreak of COVID-19. In addition, temperature is the only significant climate indicator which has significant correlation with the spread of COVID-19. Finally, PM10, humidity, and environmental quality index have a significant relationship only with the active cases from COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings conclude that Germany's successful response to COVID-19 is attributed to environmental legislation and the medical care system, which oversaw significant overhaul after the SARS and MERS outbreaks. The current study implicates that other industrial economies, especially European economies, that are still facing COVID-19 outbreak can follow the German model for pandemic response.

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Environmental pollution and COVID-19 outbreak: insights from Germany.

I study the co-evolution between public opinion and party policy in situations of crises by investigating a policy U-turn of a major Austrian right-wing party (FPÖ) during the Covid-19 pandemic. My analysis suggests the existence of both i) a “Downsian” effect, which causes voters to adapt their party preferences based on policy congruence and ii) a “party identiﬁcation” effect, which causes partisans to realign their policy preferences based on “their” party’s platform. Speciﬁcally, I use individual-level panel data to show that i) “corona skeptical” voters who did not vote for the FPÖ in the pre-Covid-19 elections of 2019 were more likely to vote for the party after it embraced “corona populism”, and ii) beliefs of respondents who declared that they voted for the FPÖ in 2019 diverged from the rest of the population in three out of four health-related dimensions only after the turn, causing them to underestimate the threat posed by Covid-19 compared to the rest of the population. Using aggregate-level panel data, I study whether the turn has produced signiﬁcant behavioral differences which could be observed in terms of reported cases and deaths per capita. Paradoxically, after the turn the FPÖ vote share is signiﬁcantly positively correlated with deaths per capita, but not with the reported number of infections. I hy- pothesize that this can be traced back to a self-selection bias in testing, which causes a correlation between the number of “corona skeptics” and the share of unreported cases after the turn. I ﬁnd empirical support for this hypothesis in individual-level data from a Covid-19 prevalence study that involves information about participants’ true vs. reported infection status. I ﬁnally study a simple heterogeneous mixing epidemiological model and show that a testing bias can indeed explain the apparent paradox of an increase in deaths without an increase in reported cases. My results can, among others, be used to enrich formal analyses regarding the co-evolution between voter and party behavior. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

Air quality changes in cities during the COVID-19 lockdown: A critical review.

Indoor Air Quality Strategies for Air-Conditioning and Ventilation Systems with the Spread of the Global Coronavirus (COVID-19) Epidemic: Improvements and Recommendations.

Background: Covid-19 was first reported in Wuhan, China in Dec 2019. Since then, it has been transmitted rapidly in China and the rest of the world. While Covid-19 transmission rate has been declining in China, it is increasing exponentially in Europe and America. Although there are numerous studies examining Covid-19 infection, including an archived paper looking into the meteorological effect, the role of outdoor air pollution has yet to be explored rigorously. It has been shown that air pollution will weaken the immune system, and increase the rate of respiratory virus infection. We postulate that outdoor air pollution concentrations will have a negative effect on Covid-19 infections in China, whilst lockdowns, characterized by strong social distancing and home isolation measures, will help to moderate such negative effect. Methods: We will collect the number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases in 31 provincial capital cities in China during the period of 1 Dec 2019 to 20 Mar 2020 (from a popular Chinese online platform which aggregates all cases reported by the Chinese national/provincial health authorities). We will also collect daily air pollution and meteorology data at the city-level (from the Chinese National Environmental Monitoring Center and the US National Climatic Data Center), daily inter-city migration flows and intra-city movements (from Baidu). City-level demographics including age distribution and gender, education, and median household income can be obtained from the statistical yearbooks. City-level co-morbidity indicators including rates of chronic disease and co-infection can be obtained from related research articles. A regression model is developed to model the relationship between the infection rate of Covid-19 (number of confirmed cases/population at the city level) and outdoor air pollution at the city level, after taking into account confounding factors such as meteorology, inter- and intra-city movements, demographics, and co-morbidity and co-infection rates. In particular, we shall study how air pollution affects infection rates across different cities, including Wuhan. Our model will also study air pollution would affect infection rates in Wuhan before and after the lockdown. Expected findings: We expect there be a correlation between Covid-19 infection rate and outdoor air pollution. We also expect that reduced intra-city movement after the lockdowns in Wuhan and the rest of China will play an important role in reducing the infection rate. Interpretation: Infection rate is growing exponentially in major cities worldwide. We expect Covid-19 infection rate is related to the air pollution concentration, and is strongly dependent on inter- and intra-city movements. To reduce the infection rate, the international community may deploy effective air pollution reduction plans and social distancing policies.

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0364/v1/download

The Effects of Outdoor Air Pollution Concentrations and Lockdowns on Covid-19 Infections in Wuhan and Other Provincial Capitals in China

This study investigates thoroughly whether acute exposure to outdoor PM2.5 concentration, P, modifies the rate of change in the daily number of COVID-19 infections (R) across 18 high infection provincial capitals in China, including Wuhan. A best-fit multiple linear regression model was constructed to model the relationship between P and R, from 1 January to 20 March 2020, after accounting for meteorology, net move-in mobility (NM), time trend (T), co-morbidity (CM), and the time-lag effects. Regression analysis shows that P (β = 0.4309, p < 0.001) is the most significant determinant of R. In addition, T (β = -0.3870, p < 0.001), absolute humidity (AH) (β = 0.2476, p = 0.002), P × AH (β = -0.2237, p < 0.001), and NM (β = 0.1383, p = 0.003) are more significant determinants of R, as compared to GDP per capita (β = 0.1115, p = 0.015) and CM (Asthma) (β = 0.1273, p = 0.005). A matching technique was adopted to demonstrate a possible causal relationship between P and R across 18 provincial capital cities. A 10 µg/m3 increase in P gives a 1.5% increase in R (p < 0.001). Interaction analysis also reveals that P × AH and R are negatively correlated (β = -0.2237, p < 0.001). Given that P exacerbates R, we recommend the installation of air purifiers and improved air ventilation to reduce the effect of P on R. Given the increasing observation that COVID-19 is airborne, measures that reduce P, plus mandatory masking that reduces the risks of COVID-19 associated with viral-particulate transmission, are strongly recommended. Our study is distinguished by the focus on the rate of change instead of the individual cases of COVID-19 when modelling the statistical relationship between R and P in China; causal instead of correlation analysis via the matching analysis, while taking into account the key confounders, and the individual plus the interaction effects of P and AH on R.

Outdoor PM2.5 concentration and rate of change in COVID-19 infection in provincial capital cities in China.

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Editorial: Designing a Protocol Adopting an Artificial Intelligence (AI)–Driven Approach for Early Diagnosis of Late-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease

Background: This paper investigates the statistical relationship between bilingualism and the Onset Age (OA) of AD and MCI across a clinical sample, consisting of 580 Alzheimer's Disease (AD) subjects and 1264 Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) subjects, via a statistical analysis conducted on the sample retrieved from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset. Method: To investigate whether bilingualism has any correlation with the OAs of AD or MCI subjects, our study leverages the full potential of the ADNI dataset, a dataset that covers both the OA and the bilingualism status of both the AD and MCI subjects. Prior to performing any meaningful statistical analysis, a regression model and a probabilistic model were developed in parallel to fill in the missing OA and bilingualism values. A simple least-square regression model that consists of an independent variable of registered age for Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score was used to estimate the OA of the AD and MCI subjects in the ADNI dataset. After filling in the missing OA values, the number of subjects relevant for the statistical analysis increased from 816 (AD: 371, MCI: 445) to 1844 (AD: 580, MCI: 1264), which greatly enlarged the representation of the AD and MCI sample in the ADNI population. With increased sample size, a novel probabilistic classification model was introduced to infer an ADNI subject’s bilingualism when relevant demographic information and deterministic outcome were not readily available from the ADNI dataset. The weighted average OA for the bilinguals and the monolinguals was then computed, where the weights for the probabilistic labels were assigned based on the percentage of bilingualism in the general US population. Finally, a statistical analysis was performed to test whether any statistically significant correlation exists between the OA and the bilingualism of the AD and MCI subjects within the ADNI dataset. Findings: Our preliminary study demonstrates no significant statistical difference between the OA of the bilinguals and the monolinguals within the ADNI dataset. Thus, the monolingual speakers within the ADNI dataset do not statistically manifest earlier onset, as compared to the bilingual speakers, which is slightly inconsistent with some earlier statistical findings that bilingual speakers enjoy certain distinctive advantages, such as late onset of AD, as compared to monolingual counterparts.

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Jocelyn Downey

Papers

The Effects of Outdoor Air Pollution Concentrations and Lockdowns on Covid-19 Infections in Wuhan and Other Provincial Capitals in China

Outdoor PM2.5 concentration and rate of change in COVID-19 infection in provincial capital cities in China.

Editorial: Designing a Protocol Adopting an Artificial Intelligence (AI)–Driven Approach for Early Diagnosis of Late-Onset Alzheimer’s Disease

Correlation Between the Bilingual Status and the Onset Age of AD and MCI Subjects: Evidence from the ADNI Dataset