A new theory of cardinal utility, with an associated set of axioms, is presented. It is a generalization of the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory, which permits the analysis of phenomena associated with the distortion of subjective probability.

A theory of anticipated utility

This article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries, with particular reference to sub‐Saharan Africa. Livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living. The determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty, income distribution, farm output and gender are examined. Some policy inferences are summarised. The conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to, and expansion of opportunities for, diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards.

Household strategies and rural livelihood diversification

A detailed retrospective of the Green Revolution, its achievement and limits in terms of agricultural productivity improvement, and its broader impact at social, environmental, and economic levels is provided. Lessons learned and the strategic insights are reviewed as the world is preparing a “redux” version of the Green Revolution with more integrative environmental and social impact combined with agricultural and economic development. Core policy directions for Green Revolution 2.0 that enhance the spread and sustainable adoption of productivity enhancing technologies are specified.

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Green Revolution: Impacts, limits, and the path ahead

While many developing-country policymakers see heavy fertilizer subsidies as critical to raising agricultural productivity, most economists see them as distortionary, regressive, environmentally unsound, and argue that they result in politicized, inefficient distribution of fertilizer supply. We model farmers as facing small fixed costs of purchasing fertilizer, and assume some are stochastically present-biased and not fully sophisticated about this bias. Even when relatively patient, such farmers may procrastinate, postponing fertilizer purchases until later periods, when they may be too impatient to purchase fertilizer. Consistent with the model, many farmers in Western Kenya fail to take advantage of apparently profitable fertilizer investments, but they do invest in response to small, time-limited discounts on the cost of acquiring fertilizer (free delivery) just after harvest. Later discounts have a smaller impact, and when given a choice of price schedules, many farmers choose schedules that induce advance purchase. Calibration suggests such small, time-limited discounts yield higher welfare than either laissez faire or heavy subsidies by helping present-biased farmers commit to fertilizer use without inducing those with standard preferences to substantially overuse fertilizer.

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Nudging Farmers to Use Fertilizer: Theory and Experimental Evidence from Kenya

Small farmers produce much of the developing world's food. Yet they are generally much poorer than the rest of the population in these countries, and are less food secure than even the urban poor. Furthermore, although the majority of the world's population will live in urban areas by 2030, farming populations will not be much smaller than they are today. For the foreseeable future, therefore, dealing with poverty and hunger in much of the world means confronting the problems that small farmers and their families face in their daily struggle for survival. The material for this book is derived from a study originally undertaken at the request of the World Bank in order to provide a specifically agricultural perspective to the revision of the Bank's rural development strategy. It has drawn on many years of specialized work within FAO and the World Bank, as well as in a number of other national and international institutions. Findings were supported by more than 20 case studies from around the world which analyzed innovative approaches to small farm or pastoral development. This book is intended for a wider audience than the original study, and it is hoped that policy makers, researchers, Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) and the agribusiness sector will all find its conclusions and recommendations interesting and thought provoking; and that they will carry the analysis further by applying the approach at national level to assist in the formulation of rural development strategies.

Farming Systems and Poverty IMPROVING FARMERS' LIVELIHOODS IN A CHANGING WORLD

The popular first edition of this standard text on risk analysis and management in agriculture has been almost wholly revised. The second edition includes much new material. There is a revised chapter on incorporating decision makers' preferences into the analysis of risky choices that recognizes and gives consideration to some recently published challenges to the legitimacy of the expected utility hypothesis. While it is argued that the theory is still the best way to handle risk aversion, at least in prescriptive analyses, more attention is given to the practical problems of utility function elicitation. It is shown how estimates of (or ranges of) degree of risk aversion might best be obtained and consistently applied. The new edition has a much more thorough treatment of stochastic simulation, including some novel yet simple methods for dealing to stochastic dependency between uncertain quantities. The treatment of policy aspects of risk in agriculture has been revised and extended to account for such important current issues as new approaches to crop insurance, the management of serious animal and crop diseases and food safety issues. As with the first edition, the book contains a blend of theory with simple illustrative examples to enable readers to see how the principles being discussed can be made operational using modern software.

Coping with Risk in Agriculture

Contents : Introduction to Decision Analysis; Probablility; Revision of Probabilities; Utility; Procedures for Decision Analysis; Production under Risk; Whole-Farm Planning under Risk; Investment Appraisal; Decision Analysis with Preferences Unknown; Appendix; Author Index; Subject Index

Agricultural Decision Analysis

This article provides a framework outlining farmers demand for information, the public goods character of extensions services, and the organizational and the political attributes affecting the performance of extension systems This conceptual framework is used to analyze several extensions modalities and their likely and actual effectiveness The analysis highlights the efficiency gains that can come from locally decentralized delivery system with incentive structures based on largely private provision, although in poorer countries extension services will remain funded The goals of agricultural extension includes transferring information from the global knowledge base and from local research to farmers, enabling them to clarify their own goals and possibilities, educating them on how to make better decisions, and stimulating desirable agricultural development

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Agricultural Extension: Good Intentions and Hard Realities

From agronomic data to farmer recommendations : an economics training manual

Risk analysis in dryland farming systems , Risk analysis in dryland farming systems , مرکز فناوری اطلاعات و اطلاع رسانی کشاورزی

Jock R. Anderson

Papers

Coping with Risk in Agriculture

Agricultural Decision Analysis

Agricultural Extension: Good Intentions and Hard Realities

From agronomic data to farmer recommendations : an economics training manual

Risk analysis in dryland farming systems