https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

Confirmation bias, as the term is typically used in the psychological literature, connotes the seeking or interpreting of evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectations, or a h...

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Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises:

Scoring rules assess the quality of probabilistic forecasts, by assigning a numerical score based on the predictive distribution and on the event or value that materializes. A scoring rule is proper if the forecaster maximizes the expected score for an observation drawn from the distributionF if he or she issues the probabilistic forecast F, rather than G ≠ F. It is strictly proper if the maximum is unique. In prediction problems, proper scoring rules encourage the forecaster to make careful assessments and to be honest. In estimation problems, strictly proper scoring rules provide attractive loss and utility functions that can be tailored to the problem at hand. This article reviews and develops the theory of proper scoring rules on general probability spaces, and proposes and discusses examples thereof. Proper scoring rules derive from convex functions and relate to information measures, entropy functions, and Bregman divergences. In the case of categorical variables, we prove a rigorous version of the ...

/pdf/strictly-proper-scoring-rules-prediction-and-estimation-28cdd1b5ww.pdf

Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation

https://psycnet.apa.org/journals/rev/87/3/215.pdf

Verbal reports as data.

Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity

(1977). Decisions with Multiple Objectives—Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. Journal of the Operational Research Society: Vol. 28, No. 3, pp. 602-603.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fjors.1994.175.pdf

Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs

(1978). Models of Discovery. Journal of the Operational Research Society: Vol. 29, No. 12, pp. 1244-1244.

Models of Discovery

y it is crucial to recognise how the leap of faith interacts with reason, routine, and reflexivity in trust. It is not merely the case that trust rests on imperfect bases which leave a residual gap that needs to be crossed. Rather, by successfully crossing the gap, trust also validates those bases. In other words, the leap of faith helps to generate and maintain the reasons, institutions and processes from which it first springs and, hence, it is truly crucial for our understanding of trust and its bases. If this is generally recognised, then I have high positive expectations as to the future benefits that trust research can bring to the social sciences. (p. 198)

Trust: Reason, Routine, Reflexivity

/pdf/decision-making-and-change-in-human-affairs-261p5ghefk.pdf

Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs

(1983). Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biasses. Journal of the Operational Research Society: Vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 254-254.

/pdf/judgement-under-uncertainty-heuristics-and-biasses-1opef4of5q.pdf

John B. Kidd

Papers

Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs

Models of Discovery

Trust: Reason, Routine, Reflexivity

Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs

Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biasses