This paper employs province-level panel data to assess the contributions of decollectivization, price adjustments, and other reforms to China's agricultural growth in the reform period. Decollectivization is found to improve total factor productivity and to account for about half of the output growth during 1978-84. The adjustment in state procurement prices also contributed positively to output growth. Its impact came mainly from the responses in input use. The effect of other market-related reforms on productivity and output growth was very small. Reasons for slowdown in agricultural growth after 1984 are also analyzed. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.

Rural Reforms and Agricultural Growth in China.

We present measurements of the properties of the central radio source in M87 using Event Horizon Telescope data obtained during the 2017 campaign. We develop and fit geometric crescent models (asymmetric rings with interior brightness depressions) using two independent sampling algorithms that consider distinct representations of the visibility data. We show that the crescent family of models is statistically preferred over other comparably complex geometric models that we explore. We calibrate the geometric model parameters using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of the emission region and estimate physical properties of the source. We further fit images generated from GRMHD models directly to the data. We compare the derived emission region and black hole parameters from these analyses with those recovered from reconstructed images. There is a remarkable consistency among all methods and data sets. We find that >50% of the total flux at arcsecond scales comes from near the horizon, and that the emission is dramatically suppressed interior to this region by a factor >10, providing direct evidence of the predicted shadow of a black hole. Across all methods, we measure a crescent diameter of 42 ± 3 μas and constrain its fractional width to be <0.5. Associating the crescent feature with the emission surrounding the black hole shadow, we infer an angular gravitational radius of GM/Dc2 = 3.8 ± 0.4 μas. Folding in a distance measurement of ${16.8}_{-0.7}^{+0.8}\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ gives a black hole mass of $M=6.5\pm 0.2{| }_{\mathrm{stat}}\pm 0.7{| }_{\mathrm{sys}}\times {10}^{9}\hspace{2pt}{M}_{\odot }$. This measurement from lensed emission near the event horizon is consistent with the presence of a central Kerr black hole, as predicted by the general theory of relativity.

/pdf/first-m87-event-horizon-telescope-results-vi-the-shadow-and-56qltaqo8n.pdf

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. The Shadow and Mass of the Central Black Hole

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(11)61880-1.pdf

Early appraisal of China's huge and complex health-care reforms

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve 'health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

/pdf/averting-biodiversity-collapse-in-tropical-forest-protected-434fceqps9.pdf

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of M87, using observations from April 2017 at 1.3 mm wavelength. These images show a prominent ring with a diameter of ~40 μas, consistent with the size and shape of the lensed photon orbit encircling the "shadow" of a supermassive black hole. The ring is persistent across four observing nights and shows enhanced brightness in the south. To assess the reliability of these results, we implemented a two-stage imaging procedure. In the first stage, four teams, each blind to the others' work, produced images of M87 using both an established method (CLEAN) and a newer technique (regularized maximum likelihood). This stage allowed us to avoid shared human bias and to assess common features among independent reconstructions. In the second stage, we reconstructed synthetic data from a large survey of imaging parameters and then compared the results with the corresponding ground truth images. This stage allowed us to select parameters objectively to use when reconstructing images of M87. Across all tests in both stages, the ring diameter and asymmetry remained stable, insensitive to the choice of imaging technique. We describe the EHT imaging procedures, the primary image features in M87, and the dependence of these features on imaging assumptions.

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Imaging the Central Supermassive Black Hole

for microfinance. While there are a number of small microfinance projects attempting to apply international lessons, they have minimal outreach in relation to the potential market demand. Far greater outreach is achieved by government microcredit services implemented as part of poverty eradication efforts. These services are heavily subsidized and unsustainable, and are viewed by both government and central bank as a social, rather than a financial sector, program.

John E. Shelton

Papers

People's Republic of China