Any series of observations ordered along a single dimension, such as time, may be thought of as a time series. The emphasis in time series analysis is on studying the dependence among observations at different points in time. What distinguishes time series analysis from general multivariate analysis is precisely the temporal order imposed on the observations. Many economic variables, such as GNP and its components, price indices, sales, and stock returns are observed over time. In addition to being interested in the contemporaneous relationships among such variables, we are often concerned with relationships between their current and past values, that is, relationships over time.

Time Series Analysis

This paper attempts to explain how the separation of security ownership and control, typical of large corporations, can be an efficient form of economic organization. We first set aside the presumption that a corporation has owners in any meaningful sense. The entrepreneur is also laid to rest, at least for the purposes of the large modern corporation. The two functions usually attributed to the entrepreneur--management and risk bearing--are treated as naturally separate factors within the set of contracts called a firm. The firm is disciplined by competition from other firms, which forces the evolution of devides for efficiently monitoring the performance of the entire team and of its individual members. Individual participants in the firm, and in particular its managers, face both the discipline and opportunities provided by the markets for their services, both within and outside the firm.

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Agency Problems and the Theory of the Firm

This paper differs from previous examinations of organizational learning in that it is broader in scope and more evaluative of the literatures. Four constructs related to organizational learning knowledge acquisition, information distribution, information interpretation, and organizational memory are articulated, and the literatures related to each are described and critiqued.

The literature on knowledge acquisition is voluminous and multi-faceted, and so the knowledge acquisition construct is portrayed here as consisting of five subconstructs or subprocesses: 1 drawing on knowledge available at the organization's birth, 2 learning from experience, 3 learning by observing other organizations, 4 grafting on to itself components that possess knowledge needed but not possessed by the organization, and 5 noticing or searching for information about the organization's environment and performance. Examination of the related literatures indicates that much has been learned about learning from experience, but also that there is a lack of cumulative work and a lack of integration of work from different research groups. Similarly, much has been learned about organizational search, but there is a lack of conceptual work, and there is a lack of both cumulative work and syntheses with which to create a more mature literature. Congenital learning, vicarious learning, and grafting are information acquisition subprocesses about which relatively little has been learned.

The literature concerning information distribution is rich and mature, but an aspect of information distribution that is central to an organization's benefitting from its learning, namely how units that possess information and units that need this information can find each other quickly and with a high likelihood, is unexplored. Information interpretation, as an organizational process, rather than an individual process, requires empirical work for further advancement. Organizational memory is much in need of systematic investigation, particularly by those whose special concerns are improving organizational learning and decision making.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2634941.pdf

Organizational Learning: The Contributing Processes and the Literatures

Even if there is an agreed-upon, fixed social objective function and policymakers know the timing and magnitude of the effects of their actions, discretionary policy, namely, the selection of that decision which is best, given the current situation and a correct evaluation of the end-of-period position, does not result in the social objective function being maximized. The reason for this apparent paradox is that economic planning is not a game against nature but, rather, a game against rational economic agents. We conclude that there is no way control theory can be made applicable to economic planning when expectations are rational.

Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans

In the hope that it may help to overcome these obstacles to effective empirical testing, this paper will attempt to fill the existing gap in the theoretical literature on valuation. We shall begin, in Section I , by examining the effects the effects of differences in dividend policy on the current price of shares in an ideal economy characterized by perfect capital markets, rational behavior, and perfect certainty. Still within this convenient analytical framework we shall go on in Section II and III to consider certain closely related issues that appear to have been responsible for considerable misunderstanding of the role of dividend policy. In particular, Section II will focus on the longstanding debate about what investors "really" capitalize when they buy shares; and Section III on the much mooted relations between price, the rate of growth of profits, and the rate of dividends per share. Once these fundamentals have been established, we shall proceed in Section IV to drop the assumption of certainty and to see the extent to which the earlier conclusions about dividend policy must be modified. Finally, in Section V , we shall briefly examine the implications for the dividend policy problem of certain kinds of market imperfections.

/pdf/dividend-policy-growth-and-the-valuation-of-shares-3rg3wfs2am.pdf

Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares

In order to explain fairly simply how expectations are formed, we advance the hypothesis that they are essentially the same as the predictions of the relevant economic theory. In particular, the hypothesis asserts that the economy generally does not waste information, and that expectations depend specifically on the structure of the entire system. Methods of analysis, which are appropriate under special conditions, are described in the context of an isolated market with a fixed production lag. The interpretative value of the hypothesis is illustrated by introducing commodity speculation into the system. 1. INTRODUCTION THAT EXPECTATIONS of economic variables may be subject to error has, for some time, been recognized as an important part of most explanations of changes in the level of business activity. The "ex ante" analysis of the Stockholm School-although it has created its fair share of confusion-is a highly suggestive approach to short-run problems. It has undoubtedly been a

/pdf/rational-expectations-and-the-theory-of-price-movements-5e23rlzpoq.pdf

Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements

The exponentially weighted average can be interpreted as the expected value of a time series made up of two kinds of random components: one lasting a single time period (transitory) and the other lasting through all subsequent periods (permanent). Such a time series may, therefore, be regarded as a random walk with “noise” superimposed. It is also shown that, for this series, the best forecast for the time period immediately ahead is the best forecast for any future time period, because both give estimates of the permanent component. The estimate of the permanent component is imperfect, and so the estimate of a regression coefficient is inconsistent in a relation involving the permanent (e.g. consumption as a function of permanent income). Its bias is small, however.

Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts

An application of linear decision rules to production and employment scheduling was described in the last issue of this journal [Holt, C. C., F. Modigliani, H. A. Simon. 1955. A linear decision rule for production and employment scheduling. Management Sci. (October).]. The hypothetical performance of these rules represented a significant improvement over the actual company performance as measured by independent cost estimates and other managerial measures of efficiency. The quadratic cost function which was used should be applicable to production and employment scheduling decisions in many other situations. Also the general approach of approximating decision criteria with quadratic functions and obtaining linear decision rules can usefully be extended to many decision problems. In the present paper we will demonstrate (a) how optimal (i.e., minimum expected cost) decision rules may be derived for a quadratic cost function involving inventory, overtime, and employment costs, and (b) how the numerical coeff...

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2627493.pdf

Derivation of a Linear Decision Rule for Production and Employment

A theory based upon random search within a fixed population of technological possibilities is used to explain the manufacturing progress function. The theory is consistent with the power function relation between unit costs and cumulative output that has frequently been observed. It is also consistent with initial rates of improvement smaller than those predicted later by the power function relation, the eventual cessation of cost reduction, and an irregularity of improvements. Existing theories in the literature either fail to agree with the main empirical phenomena or else assume precisely what they attempt to explain.

Search Theory and the Manufacturing Progress Function

Operations management: analysis for decisions , Operations management: analysis for decisions , کتابخانه دیجیتال و فن آوری اطلاعات دانشگاه امام صادق(ع)

John F. Muth

Papers

Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements

Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts

Derivation of a Linear Decision Rule for Production and Employment

Search Theory and the Manufacturing Progress Function

Operations management : analysis for decisions