A new model of the coronal and interplanetary magnetic field can predict both the interplanetary magnetic field strength and its polarity from measurements of the photospheric magnetic field. The model includes the effects of the large-scale horizontal electric currents flowing in the inner corona, of the warped heliospheric current sheet in the upper corona, and of volume currents flowing in the region where the solar wind plasma totally controls the magnetic field. The model matches the MHD solution for a simple dipole test case better than earlier source surface and current sheet models. The strength and polarity of the radial interplanetary magnetic field component predicted for quiet time samples in each year from 1977 to 1986 agree with observations made near the Earth's orbit better than the hybrid MHD-source surface model (Wang and Sheeley, 1988). The results raise the question of whether coronal holes are the only solar source of the interplantary magnetic field in the solar wind. If some interplanetary flux originates outside coronal holes, the model can match the observed field using the accepted 1.8 saturation correction factor for lambda 5250 A magnetograph observations. Requiring open flux to come exclusively from coronal holes requires and additional factor of two.

Prediction of the interplanetary magnetic field strength

High-frequency seismo-electromagnetic effects

Short-term (days to weeks) geomagnetic forecasts are valuable for a variety of public and private sector endeavors. However, forecast skill, as measured by the success of predicting geomagnetic indices, is disappointing, especially for disturbed conditions. Possible reasons for this lack of proficiency include an incomplete understanding of the solar origins of interplanetary disturbances, insufficient observations of solar phenomena and interplanetary disturbances, and an underestimation of magnetospheric-ionospheric control of observed geomagnetic activity. Until more progress can be made on each of these problems, desirable forecasting precision is likely to remain elusive. The best opportunity for improved service to those agencies requiring advance notice of geomagnetic disturbances is “nowcasting” using real-time, near-Earth observations of the approaching solar wind.

Geomagnetic activity forecasting: The state of the art

We use potential field calculations and solar magnetic observations during 1976 to 1993 to infer the evolution of interplanetary sector structure, coronal holes, and solar wind streams at heliographic latitudes ranging from 80 deg S to 80 deg N. The results are presented in the form of stackplots, which show long-lived patterns that rotate quasi-rigidly at rates determined by the photospheric distribution of nonaxisymmetric magnetic flux. The fastest wind streams and their coronal hole sources form slowly rotating patterns near the poles just after sunspot maximum but migrate to lower latitudes and tend to rotate at near-equatorial rates as sunspot activity declines.

Global evolution of interplanetary sector structure, coronal holes, and solar wind streams During 1976‐1993: Stackplot displays based on solar magnetic observations

Twenty years of solar magnetograph and in-ecliptic IMF measurements are used to verify that the radial IMF component (B sub r) can be approximated by a superposition of the sun's inclined magnetic dipole moment and a current sheet normal to the dipole axis. The net field is found to be about three times stronger along the dipole axis than near the current sheet. Over the sunspot cycle, the absolute value of B sub r should undergo the least modulation near the heliographic equator and the greatest modulation above the sun's poles, where, at 1 AU, it varies systematically between about 10 nT near sunspot minimum and about 1 nT near sunspot maximum. The latitudinal gradients in the absolute value of B sub r are expected to be steepest around sunspot minimum and flattest near sunspot maximum. It is predicted that Ulysses will encounter very strong fields when it flies over the solar poles during the declining phase of sunspot cycle 22.

On the latitude and solar cycle dependence of the interplanetary magnetic field strength

In a previous report, Doppler shifts in HF radio transmissions through the ionospheric F region following the Coalinga, California earthquake of May 1983 were described. We report here on disturbances which appeared between 400 and 500 s after the earthquake as peaks or broad bands of enhanced power in the spectra of the HF transmissions and not as Doppler shifts. While the time delay (600–800 s) before the occurrence of the Doppler shifts corresponds to the acoustic travel time to the F region, the time delay for the spectral changes indicates a travel time to the ionospheric E region. We believe that the occurrence of the spectral changes represents the presence of temporary E-region propagation modes induced by the passage of the acoustic waves responsible for the Doppler shifts observed at higher altitudes. Because the enhanced spectral power occurs at negative frequency relative to that of the F-region propagation modes, the disturbances could be the result of reflections from electron density gradients induced by upwardly propagating acoustic waves.

John H. Wolcott

Papers

E layer ionospheric disturbances following the Coalinga earthquake