Full-annual-cycle (FAC) models integrate seasonal demographic and environmental processes to elucidate the factors that limit and regulate animal populations. Unlike traditional, breeding-season-focused models of migratory populations, FAC population models include the effects on population dynamics of events in both the breeding and the nonbreeding season (i.e. winter and migration). Given that migratory birds can spend most of the year away from the breeding grounds and face seasonally specific threats and limitation, FAC models can provide critical and unique insights about their population dynamics. We review existing FAC population model types, including demographic network models, seasonal matrix models, and individual-based models, with examples of each type. We also suggest some approaches new to FAC population modeling—integrated population models and integral projection models—and make recommendations for the development and implementation of these models. Incorporating model components...

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Full-annual-cycle population models for migratory birds

Many migratory species are in decline and understanding these declines is challenging because individuals occupy widely divergent and geographically distant habitats during a single year and therefore populations across the range are interconnected in complex ways. Network modeling has been used to show, theoretically, that shifts in migratory connectivity patterns can occur in response to habitat or climate changes and that habitat loss in one region can affect sub-populations in regions that are not directly connected. Here, we use a network model, parameterized by integrating long-term monitoring data with direct tracking of ~100 individuals, to explain population trends in the rapidly declining wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and to predict future trends. Our model suggests that species-level declines in wood thrush are driven primarily by tropical deforestation in Central America but that protection of breeding habitat in some regions is necessary to prevent shifts in migratory connectivity and t...

Effects of breeding versus winter habitat loss and fragmentation on the population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Conservation relevance of bat caves for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Determining how migratory animals are spatially connected between breeding and nonbreeding periods is essential for predicting the effects of environmental change and for developing optimal conservation strategies. Yet, despite recent advances in tracking technology, we lack comprehensive information on the spatial structure of migratory networks across a species’ range, particularly for small-bodied, long-distance migratory animals. We constructed a migratory network for a songbird and used network-based metrics to characterize the spatial structure and prioritize regions for conservation. The network was constructed using year-round movements derived from 133 archival light-level geolocators attached to Tree Swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) originating from 12 breeding sites across their North American breeding range. From these breeding sites, we identified 10 autumn stopover nodes (regions) in North America, 13 non-breeding nodes located around the Gulf of Mexico, Mexico, Florida, and the Caribbean, and 136 unique edges (migratory routes) connecting nodes. We found strong migratory connectivity between breeding and autumn stopover sites and moderate migratory connectivity between the breeding and non-breeding sites. We identified three distinct “communities” of nodes that corresponded to western, central, and eastern North American flyways. Several regions were important for maintaining network connectivity, with South Florida and Louisiana as the top ranked non-breeding nodes and the Midwest as the top ranked stopover node. We show that migratory songbird networks can have both a high degree of mixing between seasons yet still show regionally distinct migratory flyways. Such information will be crucial for accurately predicting factors that limit and regulate migratory songbirds throughout the annual cycle. Our study highlights how network-based metrics can be valuable for identifying overall network structure and prioritizing specific regions within a network for conserving a wide variety of migratory animals.

https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1287&context=eeob_ag_pubs

Constructing and evaluating a continent-wide migratory songbird network across the annual cycle

This article discusses the conservation challenges of volant migratory transborder species and conservation governance primarily in North America. Many migratory species provide ecosystem service benefits to society. For example, insectivorous bats prey on crop pests and reduce the need for pesticides; birds and insects pollinate food plants; and birds afford recreational opportunities to hunters and birdwatchers. Migration is driven by the seasonal availability of resources; as resources in one area become seasonally scarce, individuals move to locations where resources have become seasonally abundant. The separation of the annual lifecycle means that species management and governance is often fractured across international borders. Because migratory species depend on habitat in different locations, their ability to provide ecosystem services in one area depends on the spatial subsidies, or support, provided by habitat and ecological processes in other areas. This creates telecouplings, or interconnectio...

Ecosystem Services from Transborder Migratory Species: Implications for Conservation Governance

The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure - these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used to as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

/pdf/moving-across-the-border-modeling-migratory-bat-populations-36go47634i.pdf

Moving across the border: modeling migratory bat populations

SUMMARY STATEMENT
We propose the use of artificial societies to support health care policymakers in understanding and forecasting the impact and adverse effects of policies. Artificial societies extend the agent-based modeling paradigm using social science research to allow integrating the human component. We simulate individuals as socially capable software agents with their individual parameters in their situated environment including social networks. We describe the application of our method to better understand policy effects on the opioid crisis in Washington, DC, as an example. We document how to initialize the agent population with a mix of empiric and synthetic data, calibrate the model, and make forecasts of possible developments. The simulation forecasts a rise in opioid-related deaths as they were observed during the pandemic. This article demonstrates how to take human aspects into account when evaluating health care policies.

Jon C. Cline

Papers

Moving across the border: modeling migratory bat populations

Applicability of Artificial Societies to Evaluate Health Care Policies.