iv Acronyms vi Appendix 271 Bibliography 279 Introduction 1 I. Puzzle 4 II. Welfare Retrenchment and Social Expenditures in MENA 11 III. Contrasting Retrenchment Patters 17 Chapter I: Literature Review and Theoretical Framework 28 I. Welfare Politics in the Middle East 29 II. Origins and Types of Developed Welfare States 33 III. Welfare States in the South 37 IV. Politics of Retrenchment 47 A. External Influences 48 B. Economic Adjustment and Welfare Reforms 54 C. Politics of Welfare Regime Change 61 V. The Argument 70 VI. Research Design and Methodology 71 VII. Outline of Chapters 73 Chapter II: Egypt’s Welfare Regime from Expansion to Retrenchment 75 I. The Origins of Egypt’s Welfare Regime 1936-1951 76 II. The Insurance-based Egalitarian Regime 1952-1986 84 A. Social Insurance 88 B. Cash Transfers 94 C. Income Generation Schemes 97 D. Subsidies 98 III. Hidden Retrenchment 1987105 A. Fiscal Reforms and the Political Economy of Welfare 108 B. The SFD and Hidden Patterns of Retrenchment 109 1. Programs and Evolution 110 2. Mission 115 IV. Conclusion 118 Chapter III: External Influences on Retrenchment: Globalization, Donors and Ideas 120 I. Crisis and Neoliberal Reforms 121 II. Structural Constraints 124 III. The Role of Development Assistance 130 A. The Old Social Protection Mechanisms 132 B. The Social Fund for Development 139

Rewriting the Social Contract: The Social Fund and Egypt's Politics of Retrenchment

The main concern of this thesis is to examine how the Mubarak authoritarian regime survived for three decades, especially after the introduction of economic liberalization I argue that the Mubarak regime created a new constituency of businessmen who benefited from economic reform and in return provided support to the regime Based on interviews with Egyptian businessmen and political activists, this thesis examines the different institutional mechanisms used by the regime to co-opt businessmen and based on predation of public and private resources Extending the literature on clientelism, I create a typology of regime-businessmen relations in terms of authoritarian clientelism, semi-clientelism, patron-broker client relationships, and mutual dependency The thesis further examines how the regime dealt with an opposition that refused to enter into its clientelisitic chain I demonstrate how the regime weakened this opposition by creating among them a divided political environment on different levels (ie, among the legal and illegal opposition, inside the legal opposition, and among the illegal opposition) This thesis demonstrates that there are businessmen who are supportive of authoritarianism; however, they may also oppose authoritarian regimes, not for their own business interests but rather for their own political/ideological stance This thesis concludes that the 25th of January Revolution showed the failure of Mubarak‘s political economy of authoritarianism based on predation and co-opting businessmen

Businessmen and authoritarianism in Egypt

Undoubtedly the rising level of public debt is attributed to the increasing difference between the public expense growth and the growth of the state's public returns leading to the rising level of public debt and , consequently, to the increase of interest rate. In this context, the economic literature review points out the public financial conditions are deemed discontinued should they extremely lead to unbearable accumulation of public debt beyond the government capacity of serving it at the medium and long terms. Although most Arab countries have adopted economic reform programs since the beginning of 1990s, the implementation of such programs was accompanied by the increasing levels of internal public debt in certain Arab countries in general (at the end of the year 2006 the internal public debt reached almost $ 304 billion estimated 55.7% out of the gross domestic product) and Egypt in particular (the net balance of internal public debt reached in June 2007 about L.E. 637.4 billion estimated 87.2% out of the gross domestic product).The study aims to generally diagnose the problem of internal public debt in the Arab countries, then, separately refer to the case of each country to clarify the development of internal debt volume, its reasons and economic impacts because of the different situations among these countries. The study also sheds some light on the case of Egypt since it is considered as the most affected country among the Arab countries by the increasing internal public debt due to chronic deficit of its public budget, a matter which affects the overall economic variables and hinders the economic growth movement and the economic development in Egypt. To achieve its objective, the study has relied on the descriptive and quantitative analytical technique to diagnose the phenomenon and its reasons in the light of available data from the central banks of some Arab countries including Egypt. The study is divided into three parts besides the introduction: the first part discusses the development of internal public debt in certain Arab countries by reviewing the development indicators of internal public debt, whereas the second part individually explains the management of internal public debt in certain Arab countries, then, the third part handles the application on the case of Egypt. Towards the end, the study suggests certain recommendations to curb the exacerbation of internal debt phenomenon in Egypt and certain Arab countries.

The Problem of Local Public Debt in the Arab Countries with Reference to Egypt

The first study in this issue argues that domestic debt has redistributed income in the wrong direction: from the poor to the rich (and from Egyptians to foreigners). The second argues that food subsidy is one of the policy measures used by the government to redistribute some of the purchasing power from the rich to the poor. Cairo Papers in Social Science, Vol. 23 No. 1.

Jūdah ʿAbd al-Khāliq

Papers

Fiscal policy measures in Egypt : public debt and food subsidy