世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

CO2 emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in the US

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/12602.pdf

The impact of financial development on carbon emissions: An empirical analysis in China

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/11129.pdf

Energy consumption, pollutant emissions and economic growth in South Africa

A survey of the electricity consumption-growth literature

We compare testing strategies for Granger noncausality in vector autoregressions (VARs) that may or may not have unit roots and cointegration Sequential testing methods are examined; these test for cointegration and use either a differenced VAR or a vector error correction model (VECM), in which to undertake the main noncausality test Basically, these strategies attempt to verify the validity of appropriate standard limit theory We contrast such methods with an augmented lag approach that ensures the limiting χ2 null distribution irrespective of the data’s nonstationarity characteristics Our simulations involve bivariate and trivariate VARs in which we allow for the lag order to be selected by general to specific testing and by model selection criteria We find that the practice of pretesting for cointegration can result in severe overrejections of the noncausal null, whereas overfitting results in better control of the Type I error probability with often little loss in power

A comparison of some common methods for detecting Granger noncausality

In 1995, Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner found a negative relationship between natural resources and economic growth, and claimed that natural resources are a curse. Their work has been widely cited, with many economists now accepting the curse of natural resources as a welldocumented explanation of poor economic growth in some economies (e.g., Papyrakis and Gerlagh, 2004; Kronenberg, 2004). In this paper, we provide an alternative econometric framework for evaluating this claim, although we begin with a discussion of possible explanations for the curse and a critical assessment of the extant theory underlying the curse. Our approach is to identify natural resources that have the greatest rents and potential for exploitation through rent-seeking agents. The transmission mechanism that we specify works through the effect that rent seeking has on corruption and how that, in turn, impacts wellbeing. Our measure of wellbeing is the Human Development Index, although we find similar results for per capita GDP. While we find that resource abundance does not directly impact economic development, we do find that petroleum resources are associated with rent-seeking behavior that negatively affects wellbeing. Our regression results are robust to various model specifications and sensitivity analyses.

/pdf/corruption-development-and-the-curse-of-natural-resources-30sq91qebf.pdf

Corruption, Development and the Curse of Natural Resources

The world has experienced impressive improvements in wealth and health, with, for instance, the world's real GDP per capita having increased by 180% from 1970 to 2007 accompanied by a 50% decline in infant mortality rate. Healthier and wealthier. Pl Are health gains arising from wealth growth? Or, has a healthier population enabled substantial growth in wealth? We contribute to understanding the dynamic links between wealth and health by examining for causal, rather than associative, links between health (as measured by infant mortality rate) and wealth (as measured by GDP per capita) for a panel of 58 developing countries using quinquennial data covering the period 1960–2005. Estimating as a panel allows us to account for unobserved heterogeneity, as well as permitting heterogeneous causal effects. We test for panel and country-specific noncausality, and we explore robustness of outcomes to level of economic development (as measured by national income), whether we account for bias in least squares estima...

/pdf/health-and-wealth-short-panel-granger-causality-tests-for-21l47nxkhb.pdf

Health and wealth: Short panel Granger causality tests for developing countries

The extensive body of research that examines for (Granger, 1969) causality from exports to output for developing countries, including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, using vector autoregressions and/or vector error correction models, is limited in only examining for one-period ahead or direct causality; the exception is in bivariate systems. This (usually unrecognized) focus on one-period causality in multivariate systems has often led to conclusions that exports do not Granger-cause economic output. We show that moving to Granger-causality at longer horizons, in a commonly used multivariate system, leads to bidirectional causality between exports and output, even when there is not one-period causality; the longer horizon causality arises indirectly through one or more of the auxiliary variables.

/pdf/direct-and-indirect-causality-between-exports-and-economic-2kxfk9digu.pdf

Direct and indirect causality between exports and economic output for bangladesh and sri lanka: horizon matters

That mortgage lenders have complex underwriting standards, often differing legitimately from one lender to another, implies that any statistical model estimated to approximate these standards, for use in fair lending determinations, must be misspecified. Exploration of the sensitivity of disparate treatment findings from such statistical models is, thus, imperative. We contribute to this goal. This article examines whether the conclusions from several bank-specific studies, undertaken by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, are robust to changes in the link function adopted to model the probability of loan approval and to the approach used to approximate the finite sample null distribution for the disparate treatment hypothesis test. Our evidence, of discrimination findings that are reasonably robust to the range of examined link functions, suggests that regulators and researchers can be reasonably comfortable with their current use of the logit link. Based on several features of our results, we...

/pdf/on-the-robustness-of-racial-discrimination-findings-in-1yc1egpge5.pdf

Judith A. Clarke

Papers

A comparison of some common methods for detecting Granger noncausality

Corruption, Development and the Curse of Natural Resources

Health and wealth: Short panel Granger causality tests for developing countries

Direct and indirect causality between exports and economic output for bangladesh and sri lanka: horizon matters

On the robustness of racial discrimination findings in mortgage lending studies