The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are chang- ing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates con- vincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and pro- cesses influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show

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Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions.

Linear trends in arctic sea-ice extent over the period 1979 to 2006 are negative in every month. This ice loss is best viewed as a combination of strong natural variability in the coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere system and a growing radiative forcing associated with rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the latter supported by evidence of qualitative consistency between observed trends and those simulated by climate models over the same period. Although the large scatter between individual model simulations leads to much uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean might be realized, this transition to a new arctic state may be rapid once the ice thins to a more vulnerable state. Loss of the ice cover is expected to affect the Arctic's freshwater system and surface energy budget and could be manifested in middle latitudes as altered patterns of atmospheric circulation and precipitation.

/pdf/perspectives-on-the-arctic-s-shrinking-sea-ice-cover-hd6p6gnyw9.pdf

Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover

Evidence and Implications of Recent Climate Change in Northern Alaska and Other Arctic Regions

One expected response to climate warming in the Arctic is an increase in the abundance and extent of shrubs in tundra areas. Repeat photography shows that there has been an increase in shrub cover over the past 50 years in northern Alaska. Using 202 pairs of old and new oblique aerial photographs, we have found that across this region spanning 620 km east to west and 350 km north to south, alder, willow, and dwarf birch have been increasing, with the change most easily detected on hill slopes and valley bottoms. Plot and remote sensing studies from the same region using the normalized difference vegetation index are consistent with the photographic results and indicate that the smaller shrubs between valleys are also increasing. In Canada, Scandinavia, and parts of Russia, there is both plot and remote sensing evidence for shrub expansion. Combined with the Alaskan results, the evidence suggests that a pan-Arctic vegetation transition is underway. If continued, this transition will alter the fundamental architecture and function of this ecosystem with important ramifications for the climate, the biota, and humans.

The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan‐Arctic

[1] Recent progress in sea ice concentration remote sensing by satellite microwave radiometers has been stimulated by two developments: First, the new sensor Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSR-E) offers spatial resolutions of approximately 6 × 4 km at 89 GHz, nearly 3 times the resolution of the standard sensor SSM/I at 85 GHz (15 × 13 km). Second, a new algorithm enables estimation of sea ice concentration from the channels near 90 GHz, despite the enhanced atmospheric influence in these channels. This allows full exploitation of their horizontal resolution, which is up to 4 times finer than that of the channels near 19 and 37 GHz, the frequencies used by the most widespread algorithms for sea ice retrieval, the NASA-Team and Bootstrap algorithms. The ASI algorithm used combines a model for retrieving the sea ice concentration from SSM/I 85-GHz data proposed by Svendsen et al. (1987) with an ocean mask derived from the 18-, 23-, and 37-GHz AMSR-E data using weather filters. During two ship campaigns, the correlation of ASI, NASA-Team 2, and Bootstrap algorithms ice concentrations with bridge observations were 0.80, 0.79, and 0.81, respectively. Systematic differences over the complete AMSR-E period (2002–2006) between ASI and NASA-Team 2 are below −2 ± 8.8%, and between ASI and Bootstrap are 1.7 ± 10.8%. Among the geophysical implications of the ASI algorithm are: (1) Its higher spatial resolution allows better estimation of crucial variables in numerical atmospheric and ocean models, for example, the heat flux between ocean and atmosphere, especially near coastlines and in polynyas. (2) It provides an additional time series of ice area and extent for climate studies.

Sea ice remote sensing using AMSR‐E 89‐GHz channels

[1] Satellite passive microwave observations document an overall downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent and area since 1978. While the record minimum observed in September 2002 strongly reinforced this downward trend, extreme ice minima were again observed in 2003 and 2004. Although having three extreme minimum years in a row is unprecedented in the satellite record, attributing these recent trends and extremes to greenhouse gas loading must be tempered by recognition that the sea ice cover is variable from year to year in response to wind, temperature and oceanic forcings.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2004GL021810

Tracking the Arctic's shrinking ice cover: Another extreme September minimum in 2004

[1] Arctic sea ice extent and area in September 2002 reached their lowest levels recorded since 1978. These conditions likely resulted from (1) anomalous warm southerly winds in spring, advecting ice poleward from the Siberian coast (2) persistent low pressure and high temperatures over the Arctic Ocean in summer, promoting ice divergence and rapid melt.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2002GL016406

A record minimum arctic sea ice extent and area in 2002

Arctic Sea Ice in 2003: A Year after the 2002 Record Minimum

Ice conditions, trends, and anomalies give at-a-glance answers to general questions such as “Is the ice extent in the Chuckchi about where it usually is this time of year?” and “Was there less ice in the Beaufort Sea last spring than is typical?”. The product is intended for both researchers and the scientifically inclined general public. Documentation explains in detail

K. Knowles

Papers

Tracking the Arctic's shrinking ice cover: Another extreme September minimum in 2004

A record minimum arctic sea ice extent and area in 2002

Arctic Sea Ice in 2003: A Year after the 2002 Record Minimum

Recent Arctic Ice Extent Minima Observed with the Sea Ice Index