Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr−1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m−2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m−2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m−2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m−2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (−0.50 to +1.08) W m−2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (−0.06 W m−2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of −1.45 to +1.29 W m−2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

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Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

. Southern Asia, extending from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, is one of the most heavily populated regions of the world. Biofuel and biomass burning play a disproportionately large role in the emissions of most key pollutant gases and aerosols there, in contrast to much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, where fossil fuel burning and industrial processes tend to dominate. This results in polluted air masses which are enriched in carbon-containing aerosols, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons. The outflow and long-distance transport of these polluted air masses is characterized by three distinct seasonal circulation patterns: the winter monsoon, the summer monsoon, and the monsoon transition periods. During winter, the near-surface flow is mostly northeasterly, and the regional pollution forms a thick haze layer in the lower troposphere which spreads out over millions of square km between southern Asia and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), located several degrees south of the equator over the Indian Ocean during this period. During summer, the heavy monsoon rains effectively remove soluble gases and aerosols. Less soluble species, on the other hand, are lifted to the upper troposphere in deep convective clouds, and are then transported away from the region by strong upper tropospheric winds, particularly towards northern Africa and the Mediterranean in the tropical easterly jet. Part of the pollution can reach the tropical tropopause layer, the gateway to the stratosphere. During the monsoon transition periods, the flow across the Indian Ocean is primarily zonal, and strong pollution plumes originating from both southeastern Asia and from Africa spread across the central Indian Ocean. This paper provides a review of the current state of knowledge based on the many observational and modeling studies over the last decades that have examined the southern Asian atmospheric pollutant outflow and its large scale effects. An outlook is provided as a guideline for future research, pointing out particularly critical issues such as: resolving discrepancies between top down and bottom up emissions estimates; assessing the processing and aging of the pollutant outflow; developing a better understanding of the observed elevated pollutant layers and their relationship to local sea breeze and large scale monsoon circulations; and determining the impacts of the pollutant outflow on the Asian monsoon meteorology and the regional hydrological cycle, in particular the mountain cryospheric reservoirs and the fresh water supply, which in turn directly impact the lives of over a billion inhabitants of southern Asia.

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Atmospheric pollutant outflow from southern Asia: a review

The Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone looks into all aspects of anthropogeic emissions of black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursors, such as methane. It analyses the trends in emissions of these substances and the drivers of these emissions; summarizes the science of atmospheric processes where these substances are involved; discusses related impacts on the climatic sysem, human health, crops in vulnerable regions and ecosystems; and societal responses to the environmntal changes caused by those impacts. The Assessment examines a large number of potential measures to reduce harmful emissions, identifying a small set of specific measures that would likely produce the greatest benefits, and which could be implemented with currently available technology. An outlook up to 2070 is developed illustrating the benefits of those emission mitigation policies and mesures for human well-being and climate. The Assessment concludes that rapid mitigation of anthropogenic black carbon and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions would complement carbon dioxide reduction measures and would have immediate benefits for human well-being. The Assessment is intended to support informed decision making at all levels as a guide for assessment, planning and management for the future.

Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone

. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative effect of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative flux changes induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to any other snow-covered regions in the world. Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative flux changes of 5–25 W m−2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0 °C averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1–4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April–July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. Simulation results show that during boreal spring aerosols are transported by southwesterly, causing some particles to reach higher altitude and deposit to the snowpack over the TP. While BC and Organic Matter (OM) in the atmosphere directly absorb sunlight and warm the air, the darkened snow surface polluted by BC absorbs more solar radiation and increases the skin temperature, which warms the air above through sensible heat flux. Both effects enhance the upward motion of air and spur deep convection along the TP during the pre-monsoon season, resulting in earlier onset of the SAM and increase of moisture, cloudiness and convective precipitation over northern India. BC-in-snow has a more significant impact on the EAM in July than CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. Contributed by the significant increase of both sensible heat flux associated with the warm skin temperature and latent heat flux associated with increased soil moisture with long memory, the role of the TP as a heat pump is elevated from spring through summer as the land-sea thermal contrast increases to strengthen the EAM. As a result, both southern China and northern China become wetter, but central China (i.e. Yangtze River Basin) becomes drier – a near-zonal anomaly pattern that is consistent with the dominant mode of precipitation variability in East Asia. The snow impurity effects reported in this study likely represent some upper limits as snowpack is remarkably overestimated over the TP due to excessive precipitation. Improving the simulation of precipitation and snowpack will be important for improved estimates of the effects of snowpack pollution in future work.

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Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

. We examine the distribution of aerosols and associated optical/radiative properties in the Gangetic-Himalayan region from simultaneous radiometric measurements over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) and the foothill/southern slopes of the Himalayas during the 2009 pre-monsoon season. Enhanced dust transport extending from the Southwest Asian arid regions into the IGP, results in seasonal mean (April–June) aerosol optical depths of over 0.6 – highest over Southern Asia. The influence of dust loading is greater over the Western IGP as suggested by pronounced coarse mode peak in aerosol size distribution and spectral single scattering albedo (SSA). Transported dust in the IGP, driven by prevailing westerly airmass, is found to be more absorbing (SSA550 nm

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Accumulation of aerosols over the Indo-Gangetic plains and southern slopes of the Himalayas: distribution, properties and radiative effects during the 2009 pre-monsoon season

. The possible minimal range of reduction in snow surface albedo due to dry deposition of black carbon (BC) in the pre-monsoon period (March–May) was estimated as a lower bound together with the estimation of its accuracy, based on atmospheric observations at the Nepal Climate Observatory – Pyramid (NCO-P) sited at 5079 m a.s.l. in the Himalayan region. A total BC deposition rate was estimated as 2.89 μg m−2 day−1 providing a total deposition of 266 μg m−2 for March–May at the site, based on a calculation with a minimal deposition velocity of 1.0×10−4 m s−1 with atmospheric data of equivalent BC concentration. Main BC size at NCO-P site was determined as 103.1–669.8 nm by correlation analyses between equivalent BC concentration and particulate size distributions in the atmosphere. The BC deposition from the size distribution data was also estimated. It was found that 8.7% of the estimated dry deposition corresponds to the estimated BC deposition from equivalent BC concentration data. If all the BC is deposited uniformly on the top 2-cm pure snow, the corresponding BC concentration is 26.0–68.2 μg kg−1, assuming snow density variations of 195–512 kg m−3 of Yala Glacier close to NCO-P site. Such a concentration of BC in snow could result in 2.0–5.2% albedo reductions. By assuming these albedo reductions continue throughout the year, and then applying simple numerical experiments with a glacier mass balance model, we estimated reductions would lead to runoff increases of 70–204 mm of water. This runoff is the equivalent of 11.6–33.9% of the annual discharge of a typical Tibetan glacier. Our estimates of BC concentration in snow surface for pre-monsoon season is comparable to those at similar altitudes in the Himalayan region, where glaciers and perpetual snow regions begin, in the vicinity of NCO-P. Our estimates from only BC are likely to represent a lower bound for snow albedo reductions, because we used a fixed slower deposition velocity. In addition, we excluded the effects of atmospheric wind and turbulence, snow aging, dust deposition, and snow albedo feedbacks. This preliminary study represents the first investigation of BC deposition and related albedo on snow, using atmospheric aerosol data observed at the southern slope in the Himalayas.

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Estimated impact of black carbon deposition during pre-monsoon season from Nepal Climate Observatory – Pyramid data and snow albedo changes over Himalayan glaciers

K.-M. Lau

Papers

Estimated impact of black carbon deposition during pre-monsoon season from Nepal Climate Observatory – Pyramid data and snow albedo changes over Himalayan glaciers