Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of plants and animals are occurring in all well-studied marine, freshwater, and terrestrial groups These observed changes are heavily biased in the directions predicted from global warming and have been linked to local or regional climate change through correlations between climate and biological variation, field and laboratory experiments, and physiological research Range-restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop species, show severe range contractions and have been the first groups in which entire species have gone extinct due to recent climate change Tropical coral reefs and amphibians have been most negatively affected Predator-prey and plant-insect interactions have been disrupted when interacting species have responded differently to warming Evolutionary adaptations to warmer conditions have occurred in the interiors of species’ ranges, and resource use and dispersal have evolved rapidly at expanding range margins Observed genetic shifts modulate local effects of climate change, but there is little evidence that they will mitigate negative effects at the species level

https://www.fws.gov/southwest/es/documents/R2ES/LitCited/LPC_2012/Parmesan_2006.pdf

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change

© 2000 by Blackwell Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Issues of scale have become increasingly important to ecologists. This book addresses the structure of regional (large-scale) ecological assemblages or communities, and the influence this has at a local (small-scale) level. This macroecological perspective is essential for the broader study of ecology because the structure and function of local communities cannot be properly understood without reference to the region in which they are situated. The book reviews and synthesizes the issues of current importance in macroecology, providing a balanced summary of the field that will be useful for biologists at advanced undergraduate level and above. These general issues are illustrated by frequent reference to specific well-studied local and regional assemblages -- an approach that serves to relate the macroecological perspective (which is perhaps often difficult to comprehend) to the everyday experience of local sites. Macroecology is an expanding and dynamic discipline. The broad aim of the book is to promote an understanding of why it is such an important part of the wider program of research into ecology. Summarises the current macroecological literature. Provides numerous examples of key patterns. Explicitly links local and regional scale processes. Exploits detailed knowledge of one species assemblage to explore broad issues in the structuring of biodiversity.

http://www.gbv.de/dms/hebis-darmstadt/toc/93195257.pdf

Pattern and Process in Macroecology

Global climate change is frequently considered a major conservation threat. The Earth's climate has already warmed by 0.5 8 C over the past century, and recent studies show that it is possible to detect the ef- fects of a changing climate on ecological systems. This suggests that global change may be a current and fu- ture conservation threat. Changes in recent decades are apparent at all levels of ecological organization: pop- ulation and life-history changes, shifts in geographic range, changes in species composition of communities, and changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. These ecological effects can be linked to recent population declines and to both local and global extinctions of species. Although it is impossible to prove that climate change is the cause of these ecological effects, these findings have important implications for conser- vation biology. It is no longer safe to assume that all of a species' historic range remains suitable. In drawing attention to the importance of climate change as a current threat to species, these studies emphasize the need for current conservation efforts to consider climate change in both in situ conservation and reintroduction efforts. Additional threats will emerge as climate continues to change, especially as climate interacts with other stressors such as habitat fragmentation. These studies can contribute to preparations for future chal- lenges by providing valuable input to models and direct examples of how species respond to climate change.

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Ecological Consequences of Recent Climate Change

Preface.- 1 Introduction.- 2 Characteristics of urban flora and fauna.- 2.1 Proliferation of introduced species.- 2.2 Severe disturbance.- 2.3 Increased opportunities for dispersal.- 2.4 Habitat diversity.- 2.5 Taxonomic and evolutionary aspects.- 2.6 Vertebrates.- 2.7 Invertebrates.- 2.8 Planted vegetation.- 2.9 Historical factors.- 3 The urban climate and air pollution.- 3.1 Climate.- 3.2 Air pollution.- 4 Soils in urban areas.- 4.1 The classification of urban soils.- 4.2 Conspectus.- 4.3 Characteristics of urban soils.- 4.4 Brick rubble.- 4.5 Topsoiled sites.- 5 Vegetation dynamics.- 5.1 Ecological change as greenfield sites become developed.- 5.2 Ecological change as urban land is recycled.- 5.3 Postdevelopment.- 5.4 Discussion.- 6 Urban commons.- 6.1 Plants.- 6.2 Animals.- 6.3 Research opportunities.- 7 Industrial areas.- 7.1 Raw materials.- 7.2 Buildings, structures, hard landscapes.- 7.3 Energy aspects.- 7.4 Stores and warehouses.- 7.5 Solid waste material.- 7.6 Modern trends.- 8 Railways.- 8.1 The permanent way.- 8.2 Sidings.- 8.3 Brickwork and masonry.- 8.4 Verges.- 8.5 Boundary features.- 9 Roads.- 9.1 Road design.- 9.2 Exhaust emissions.- 9.3 De-icing salt.- 9.4 Traffic stress.- 9.5 Street trees.- 9.6 Grass verges.- 9.7 Animals.- 10 City centres.- 10.1 Animals.- 10.2 Vegetation.- 10.3 Interactions.- 11 City parks.- 11.1 Habitats within a park.- 11.2 Grassland.- 11.3 Growth retardants and herbicides.- 11.4 The changing wild flora of parks.- 11.5 Lakes.- 11.6 Mammals.- 11.7 Birds.- 11.8 Invertebrates.- 12 Allotments and leisure gardens.- 12.1 Background.- 12.2 Cultivated plots.- 12.3 Secondary successions.- 12.4 Birds.- 12.5 Supplementary habitats.- 12.6 Fostering wildlife on allotments.- 13 Cemeteries.- 13.1 Background.- 13.2 Structure planting.- 13.3 Shrubs.- 13.4 The ground layer.- 13.5 Grave plots.- 13.6 Relic communities.- 13.7 Succession.- 13.8 Management options.- 14 Gardens.- 14.1 Vegetation.- 14.2 Animals.- 14.3 Discussion.- 15 Rivers, canals, ponds, lakes, reservoirs and water mains.- 15.1 Urban hydrology.- 15.2 Rivers.- 15.3 Canals.- 15.4 Ponds, lakes, reservoirs and water mains.- 16 Woodland.- 16.1 The archaeology of a small urban wood.- 16.2 Ancient seminatural woodland.- 16.3 Plantations on the site of ancient woodland.- 16.4 Spontaneous recent woodland.- 16.5 Plantations.- 16.6 Birds.- 17 Living with wildlife.- 17.1 The aesthetic conflict.- 17.2 Social considerations.- 17.3 Design and management.- 17.4 Benefits for all.- References.

The Ecology of Urban Habitats

Recommendations for an international standard for a mapping method in bird census work

(1964). Methods and preliminary results of the common birds census, 1962–63. Bird Study: Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 240-256.

Methods and preliminary results of the common birds census, 1962–63

Climatic fluctuations must have influenced animals and plants, as they have done human history, since the earliest times; but it is only within the present century that such events have been documented. This survey draws together data on bird distribution changes thought to have been set in motion by the 'amelioration' which followed the 1890s, and postulates how some current trends in England and Scotland may have a basis in the subsequent expansion of the polar easterlies and the weakening circulation over the Atlantic Ocean. The importance of cooperative bird studies as an aid to monitoring climatic change is discussed.

Kenneth Williamson

Papers

Recommendations for an international standard for a mapping method in bird census work

Methods and preliminary results of the common birds census, 1962–63

Birds and Climatic Change

Habitat preferences of the Wren on English farmland

Bird census work in woodland