世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

We describe the theory and practice of real GDP comparisons across countries and over time. Effective with version 8, the Penn World Table (PWT) will be taken over by the University of California, Davis and the University of Groningen, with continued input from Alan Heston at the University of Pennsylvania. Version 8 will expand on previous versions of PWT in three respects. First, it will distinguish real GDP on the expenditure side from real GDP on the output side, which differ by the terms of trade faced by countries. Second, it will distinguish growth rates of GDP based on national accounts data from growth rates that are benchmarked in multiple years to cross-country price data. Third, data on capital stocks will be reintroduced. Some illustrative results from PWT version 8 are discussed, including new results that show how the Penn effect is not emergent but a stable relationship over time.

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Online Appendix to: The Next Generation of the Penn World Table*

This first report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment describes the conceptual framework that is being used in the MA. It is not a formal assessment of the literature, but rather a scientifically informed presentation of the choices made by the assessment team in structuring the analysis and framing the issues. The conceptual framework elaborated in this report describes the approach and assumptions that will underlie the analysis conducted in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. The framework was developed through interactions among the experts involved in the MA as well as stakeholders who will use its findings. It represents one means of examining the linkages between ecosystems and human well-being that is both scientifically credible and relevant to decision-makers. This framework for analysis and decision-making should be of use to a wide array of individuals and institutions in government, the private sector, and civil society that seek to incorporate considerations of ecosystem services in their assessments, plans, and actions.

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Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w19255/w19255.pdf

The Next Generation of the Penn World Table

An overview of sustainability assessment methodologies

Genuine saving as an indicator of sustainability

New research on urban air pollution casts doubt on the conventional view of the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality. This view holds that pollution automatically increases until societies reach middle-income status because poor countries have neither the institutional capacity nor the political commitment necessary to regulate polluters. Some policymakers and researchers have cited this model (called the"environmental Kuznets curve,"or EKC) when arguing that developing countries should"grow first, clean up later."However, new evidence suggests that the EKC model is misleading because it mistakenly assumes that strong environmental governance is not possible for poor countries. As the authors show in this paper, the empirical relationship between pollution and income becomes much weaker when measures of governance are added to the analysis. Their results also suggest that previous research has underestimated the effect of geographic vulnerability (climate and terrain factors) on air quality. The authors find that weak governance and geographic vulnerability alone can account for the crisis levels of air pollution in many developing country cities. When these factors are combined with income and population effects, the authors have a sufficient explanation for the fact that some cities already have air quality comparable to levels in OECD urban areas. To summarize, their results suggest that the maxim"grow first, clean up later"is too simplistic. Appropriate urban growth strategies can steer development toward cities with lower geographic vulnerability, and governance reform can reduce air pollution significantly, long before countries reach middle-income status.

Air pollution during growth : accounting for governance and vulnerability

Recent carbon market prices are substantially lower than mean or median estimates of the social cost of carbon in the literature. Intuition would therefore suggest that 'investment errors' are being made, in the sense that markets favor higher carbon-emitting projects, while global welfare would be larger with lower carbon-emitting projects. This intuition is correct in specific circumstances, but not others. For any comparison of two alternative projects, there is a carbon switching price that equalizes their net social benefits. From the perspective of maximizing global welfare, investment errors only occur when this switching price lies between the carbon market price and the social cost of carbon. Data on the costs of high-carbon and low-carbon electric generation projects suggest that there is no financing gap using mean or median published figures, but for precautionary (95th percentile) choices of the social cost of carbon, there is a financing gap between carbon market prices and the switching price that would trigger investment in the global welfare-maximizing low-carbon project. A global carbon fund to finance this gap could be conceived, but stricter emission caps and reforms of carbon markets are likely to be a more efficient solution to the problem.

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Economic analysis of projects in a greenhouse world

Providing additional finance for adaptation is a key element of the emerging international climate change framework. This paper discusses how adaptation funding may be allocated among developing countries in a transparent, efficient and equitable way. We propose an approach based on three criteria: the climate change impact experienced in a country, a country’s adaptive (or social) capacity and its implementation capacity. Rough indicators are proposed for each of these three dimensions. Physical impact and adaptive capacity together determine a country’s vulnerability to climate change. It seems both efficient and fair that countries which are more vulnerable should have a stronger claim on adaptation resources. The third dimension, implementation capacity, introduces a measure of adaptation effectiveness. It makes sense to focus adaptation finance on countries with the capacity to use these resources efficiently.

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The allocation of adaptation funding

We set out a model of a small open economy exporting oil and a traditional exportable in return for produced capital. The small open economy also has local production of a non-traded good. We first observe that the size of the traditional export sector declines with an exogenous increase in the country's oil stock. Strong Dutch disease (SDD) involves a net diminution in produced capital in use in the small open economy after the oil discovery shock. SDD turns on the exportable sector being relatively capital intensive.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/67783/1/616605404.pdf

Kirk Hamilton

Papers

Genuine saving as an indicator of sustainability

Air pollution during growth : accounting for governance and vulnerability

Economic analysis of projects in a greenhouse world

The allocation of adaptation funding

Oil Stock Discovery and Dutch Disease