计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

This paper proposes a regression model where the response is beta distributed using a parameterization of the beta law that is indexed by mean and dispersion parameters. The proposed model is useful for situations where the variable of interest is continuous and restricted to the interval (0, 1) and is related to other variables through a regression structure. The regression parameters of the beta regression model are interpretable in terms of the mean of the response and, when the logit link is used, of an odds ratio, unlike the parameters of a linear regression that employs a transformed response. Estimation is performed by maximum likelihood. We provide closed-form expressions for the score function, for Fisher's information matrix and its inverse. Hypothesis testing is performed using approximations obtained from the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. Some diagnostic measures are introduced. Finally, practical applications that employ real data are presented and discussed.

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Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions

The class of beta regression models is commonly used by practitioners to model variables that assume values in the standard unit interval (0, 1). It is based on the assumption that the dependent variable is beta-distributed and that its mean is related to a set of regressors through a linear predictor with unknown coefficients and a link function. The model also includes a precision parameter which may be constant or depend on a (potentially different) set of regressors through a link function as well. This approach naturally incorporates features such as heteroskedasticity or skewness which are commonly observed in data taking values in the standard unit interval, such as rates or proportions. This paper describes the betareg package which provides the class of beta regressions in the R system for statistical computing. The underlying theory is briefly outlined, the implementation discussed and illustrated in various replication exercises.

Beta Regression in R

Improved statistical inference for the two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

Improved point and interval estimation for a beta regression model

We evaluate the finite-sample behavior of different heteros-ke-das-ticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators, under both constant and unequal error variances. We consider the estimator proposed by Halbert White (HC0), and also its variants known as HC2, HC3, and HC4; the latter was recently proposed by Cribari-Neto (2004). We propose a new covariance matrix estimator: HC5. It is the first consistent estimator to explicitly take into account the effect that the maximal leverage has on the associated inference. Our numerical results show that quasi-t inference based on HC5 is typically more reliable than inference based on other covariance matrix estimators.

Inference Under Heteroskedasticity and Leveraged Data

We analyze the finite-sample behavior of three second-order bias-corrected alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters that index the beta distribution. The three finite-sample corrections we consider are the conventional second-order bias corrected estimator (Cordeiro et al ., 1997), the alternative approach introduced by Firth (1993) and the bootstrap bias correction. We present numerical results comparing the performance of these estimators for thirty-six different values of the parameter vector. Our results reveal that analytical bias corrections considerably outperform numerical bias corrections obtained from bootstrapping schemes.

Nearly Unbiased Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Beta Distribution

We propose an analytical bias correction for the maximum likelihood estimators of the $\mathcal{G}_{I}^{0}$ distribution. This distribution is a very powerful tool for speckled imagery analysis, since it is capable of describing a wide range of target roughness. We compare the performance of the corrected estimators with the corresponding original version using Monte Carlo simulation. This second-order bias correction leads to estimators which are better from both the bias and mean square error criteria.

Klaus L. P. Vasconcellos

Papers

Improved statistical inference for the two-parameter Birnbaum-Saunders distribution

Improved point and interval estimation for a beta regression model

Inference Under Heteroskedasticity and Leveraged Data

Nearly Unbiased Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Beta Distribution

Improving estimation in speckled imagery