We investigate the determinants of capital structure choice by analyzing the financing decisions of public firms in the major industrialized countries. At an aggregate level, firm leverage is fairly similar across the G-7 countries. We find that factors identified by previous studies as important in determining the cross- section of capital structure in the U.S. affect firm leverage in other countries as well. However, a deeper examination of the U.S. and foreign evidence suggests that the theoretical underpinnings of the observed correlations are still largely unresolved.

What Do We Know About Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data

We investigate the determinants of capital structure choice by analyzing the financing decisions of public firms in the major industrialized countries. At an aggregate level, firm leverage is fairly similar across the G-7 countries. We find that factors identified by previous studies as correlated in the cross-section with firm leverage in the United States, are similarly correlated in other countries as well. However, a deeper examination of the U.S. and foreign evidence suggests that the theoretical underpinnings of the observed correlations are still largely unresolved.

/pdf/what-do-we-know-about-capital-structure-some-evidence-from-1mj7ra2f2b.pdf

What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data

We propose a theory of securities market under- and overreactions based on two well-known psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information; and biased self-attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors’ confidence as a function of their investment outcomes. We show that overconfidence implies negative long-lag autocorrelations, excess volatility, and, when managerial actions are correlated with stock mispricing, public-event-based return predictability. Biased self-attribution adds positive short-lag autocorrelations ~“momentum”!, short-run earnings “drift,” but negative correlation between future returns and long-term past stock market and accounting performance. The theory also offers several untested implications and implications for corporate financial policy. IN RECENT YEARS A BODY OF evidence on security returns has presented a sharp challenge to the traditional view that securities are rationally priced to ref lect all publicly available information. Some of the more pervasive anomalies can be classified as follows ~Appendix A cites the relevant literature!: 1. Event-based return predictability ~public-event-date average stock returns of the same sign as average subsequent long-run abnormal performance! 2. Short-term momentum ~positive short-term autocorrelation of stock returns, for individual stocks and the market as a whole!

/pdf/investor-psychology-and-security-market-under-and-108faczcym.pdf

Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions

We propose a theory of securities market under- and overreactions based on two well-known psychological biases: investor overconfidence about the precision of private information; and biased self-attribution, which causes asymmetric shifts in investors' confidence as a function of their investment outcomes. We show that overconfidence implies negative long-lag autocorrelations, excess volatility, and, when managerial actions are correlated with stock mispricing, public-event-based return predictability. Biased self-attribution adds positive short-lag autocorrelations (momentum), short-run earnings drift, but negative correlation between future returns and long-term past stock market and accounting performance. The theory also offers several untested implications and implications for corporate financial policy. 
Prepublication version available at https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2017

Presentation Slides for 'Investor Psychology and Security Market Under and Overreactions'

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6234/w6234.pdf

The determinants and implications of corporate cash holdings

Timing, investment opportunities, managerial discretion, and the security issue decision

Ownership structure and earnings informativeness: Evidence from Korea

Earnings Response Coefficients: Synthesis of Theory and Empirical Evidence

This paper examines forecasts developed by financial analysts before and after mergers. The study finds that forecast accuracy decreases sharply after mergers. These accuracy reductions tend to be more pronounced when financial leverage changes, when the merger does not provide earnings or industry diversification, when the purchase method of accounting is used to record the transaction, when capital intensity changes, and when the size of the target corporation is large compared to the size of the acquiring corporation. The data also show that reductions in forecast accuracy after mergers tend to be temporary. Accuracy returns to approximately the premerger level within four years after the merger.The study also finds that overprediction bias increases sharply in the year immediately following the merger. This increase in over-prediction bias, however, is also temporary. Overprediction bias returns to approximately the premerger level within the four-year postmerger study period.

The Accuracy of Financial Analysts' Forecasts after Mergers:

This paper examines the effect of Japanese corporate groupings, keiretsu, on the informativeness of earnings. Keiretsu firms maintain close financial and personal ties through cross-shareholding, credit holding, interlocking corporate directorates, and various business transactions. We propose that the strong interrelations of the keiretsu ownership structure enhance the informativeness of earnings through efficient monitoring of managerial performance. Our empirical results show that keiretsu firms have higher earnings response coefficients than those of non-keiretsu firms, the earnings response coefficient increases as the strength of the keiretsu relationship increases, and discretionary accruals by keiretsu firms are smaller than discretionary accruals of non-keiretsu firms. All of these results suggest that the monitoring ability of the keiretsu improves the informativeness of earnings.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm?abstractid=503222

Kooyul Jung

Papers

Timing, investment opportunities, managerial discretion, and the security issue decision

Ownership structure and earnings informativeness: Evidence from Korea

Earnings Response Coefficients: Synthesis of Theory and Empirical Evidence

The Accuracy of Financial Analysts' Forecasts after Mergers:

Japanese Corporate Groupings (Keiretsu) and the Informativeness of Earnings